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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...I never implied that it WILL NOT SNOW in the mid atl during a la nina season in which the NAO is + in the means. What I implied was that if you want a "good winter", you will need at least "some" blocking in a la nina season. All of the la nina seasons that had none sucked down there....but yes, there was still some snow....hard not to be above 35* latitude, or whatever...
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    In other news, SNE's next blizzard will probably not have the impact of the Feb 1978 blizzard...lol
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    2010-2011...
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    For all of the crap that we give the 80's, which were paltry in terms of snowfall, only one season from that decade managed to not average at least one neg NAO month in the means......1988-89, which was a strong la nina. I wonder if Tip's, expanded Hadley cell and attendant uber fast flow is responsible for the rarity of the neg NAO over the past several years...
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    So you believe that the PAC modulates the Atl....hard to substantiate or dispute, but logically it makes sense, since the former is much larger and upstream.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    With the exception of March 2018, you have to go back to March 2013 to find a DM winter month that averaged a negative NAO in the means.....think about that. Food for thought for some of the "All Regression All of the Time" crew....
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Where did I say that you did? It was an honest question...not sarcastic. While the 2017-2018 season averaged +NAO in the means, March was exceptionally blocky. There was a potent SSW in February...
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    List me all of the la Nina winters that the mid atl did well with a +NAO...
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    That to me implies that you even with the N PAC ridging positioned well, you still need an NAO. I don't like the odds of that. I may be able to get away with it...but most won't.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can buy that fluctuating between neutral and -1SD is better than stagnating at -2SD.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, an NAO that fluctuates between "your porked" and "your f*cked" like last season is no bueno.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't view this post as good news.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    @raindancewx....do you have any stats to support that the QBO trend is as important as the state? Not doubting it, but just wondering.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Your analogs are like mine...feast or famine snowfall around this area. I would take 2007-2008 in a heartbeat. Sign me up....like 90" here with a steep gradient to the south. I doubt it will be as active as that season, as NNE through Montreal and Quebec had like 5' of snowpack all winter.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    It wasn't a "block", per se....but we did time some NAO assist very well for the 1/11 blizzard. Not sure about latter January. @Ginx snewx can tell you all about transient NAO assist haha He loves it.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    @raindancewx What are your thoughts on this research? +QBO in cool ENSO seasons favoring more N PAC ridging....
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks more and more like the path to a very good winter may be though the NPAC....interesting perspective in relation to the QBO shared in the mid atl forum. I really like griteater's stuff.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow....GREAT stuff. Food for thought, and it makes sense in that we use the QBO as a predictor for the polar fields, however, I have aways known the +QBO to favor less blocking (+NAO/AO). But, if it were to favor more N PAC blocking during la nina seasons, then that could change things. Only thing with 2010-2011 is that we also had some NAO assist. Interesting... The question I have is why is the dataset limited to la nina seasons following el nino seasons?
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree with that.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I never, ever would have guessed....lol
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, unless something changes, not a good look for you guys....even our better years from that composite still sucked for you. But hey....its not my final call, and the way my last two outlooks have done, it will be good new for you guys if it does end up being my final call.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    You should be in a better spot than most of us in SNE.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    We will need some luck as far as the timing of the highs etc, but it can be done.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Negative correlation with October...positive with Novie. Nothing earth shatteringly strong..
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