40/70 Benchmark

Its interesting that this hasn't transitioned as quickly west as I had thought.....good sign for the eastern US IMO.

Nina still looks pretty east-based.

What are the result for it this year? I remember your correlation began very promising, but has struggled of late. No offense, as that if often the case in this field and doesn't mean that there is not value there. I do agree that summer has more predictive utility with respect to the winter time NAO, than does October.

Just going off of memory, but I think 10/2007 was very mild around these parts....pretty benign autumn until the switch got flipped about 12/3.

Yea, agree. I could see a bit higher, but not much. My final range was 100-115mph...first guess on Monday was 85-100mph, which wasn't bad for that range...especially considering that I also correctly predicted the explosion to cat 4 status in the nw Caribbean.

I would not be stunned to see it come in as a strong cat 1, although cat 2 is much more likely.

Its in a relatively steady state with a slight bias towards intensification. As expected, IMO. I don't think the winds will ramp up much...maybe 110-115mph...

Haven't posted much in this thread, but have been saying all along that folks expecting a big second peak intensity in the GOM may be disappointed. Betting on something as extreme as a cat 4 for a system that has been structurally unstable and quickly expanding in size, during a season with an observed propensity to limit intensity as least excuse imaginable seemed like a risky proposition to me. That said, no issue at all with a very destructive surge potential due to the expanding size. DELTA will likely intensify at a fairly methodical pace to a secondary peak of high cat 2/low cat 3, before striking the coast as either a low end cat 2 or even high end cat 1. Regardless, wind will not be the main story, unlike Laura.

Agree. The gulf coast would probably be better off it maintained intensity and remained compact.

Its flat terrain out there, too...not like Cuba.

It will be interesting to see how much DELTA going coo coo for coco puffs can spike the ACE. Should remain a major for several days.

I would be modestly surprised if this la nina registered as an official moderate event per ONI, and would be stunned if it ended up strong...I guess we will see.

It may not necessarily help much in the snowfall department, but I will bet against JF being as warm as they were last season and will most likely be right, regardless of the pattern. That was highly anomalous....even considering global warming.

That is what I am afraid of...

Even here, its much more difficult. La nina/+NAO couplet is always a dangerous way to live south of the NH border.

Gotcha....by "good", I meant above normal....just miscommunication.

LOL Every BY for themselves. Sorry about that...didn't mean to tell you your own climo. That is obnoxious...I was just tossing out a la nina with some blocking. It wasn't a disaster for you guys, though, right?

I'm not expert on mid atl climo, so all I can do is point out a la nina with blocking. By all means, feel free to enlighten me with details. Odds are always against down there in la nina, but its just more palatable with a neg NAO.

Agree.

Yea, you can get porked in a neg NAO....no promises, but it helps.

Right...I never implied that it WILL NOT SNOW in the mid atl during a la nina season in which the NAO is + in the means. What I implied was that if you want a "good winter", you will need at least "some" blocking in a la nina season. All of the la nina seasons that had none sucked down there....but yes, there was still some snow....hard not to be above 35* latitude, or whatever...

In other news, SNE's next blizzard will probably not have the impact of the Feb 1978 blizzard...lol

2010-2011...

Where did I say that you did? It was an honest question...not sarcastic. While the 2017-2018 season averaged +NAO in the means, March was exceptionally blocky. There was a potent SSW in February...