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National Weather Service Nashville TN 210 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Radar is clear at forecast time. Same goes for the satellite. With small to almost zero dew point depressions, fog has already started to develop in many areas across Middle TN. Right now, only a couple of spots are showing anything dense, but this may change over the next couple of hours. Winds at about 1kft are 20 kts off the OHX VAD profiler and this may be enough to keep us from getting widespread dense stuff, but an advisory may become necessary in the next couple of hours. Well, I`m glad I bumped PoPs from what the NBM gave me yesterday morning. However, storms WAY overperformed yesterday afternoon from what I was seeing in the models at this time yesterday morning. CAPE was near 2000 J/Kg as expected, but even with meager shear, storms were able to produce large hail, damaging wind and from the look of it, possibly a couple tornadoes. That does not bode well for the next couple of days because forecast soundings over the next 72 hours look much more severe than yesterday. Let`s start with today. Remnants of yesterday`s High Risk area over the Plains merged into a QLCS last night, which is now wreaking havoc over western Missouri. This QLCS feature will continue pushing eastward through the morning hours and while latest CAMs have it falling apart upstream from us late this morning, the residual outflows from this system may very well provide us with the lift I thought we may be missing today. Forecast soundings are healthy. 2500+ CAPE values, lapse rates similar to yesterday and much better shear values than I was seeing for yesterday`s storms. For these reasons, while I think damaging wind gusts (60+ mph) and large hail will be the main threats, any storms that develop will likely be rotating, so while lower on the totem pole, I can`t rule out a tornado threat. In addition, with the amount of rain we`ve received over the last couple of days and PWs in the 90th percentile this afternoon, localized flash flooding is also possible. Please don`t sleep on the flash flood threat and heed any warnings that may be issued. Ok. That`s just the afternoon. Almost across the board, CAMs are showing additional development tonight as another wave passes through the region. While we lose some of the heating of the day, CAPE values only fall into the 1000-1500 J/Kg range. This means we`ll hold onto plenty of instability during the overnight hours. Deep layer shear holds steady around 40 kts and helicities are such to sustain updrafts. This means we`ll hold an overnight severe threat, as well, with any additional storms that develop. It also means that we`re going to be dealing with overnight severe potential two nights in a row. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 While today and tonight`s severe threat is healthy, that might make Wednesday`s severe potential super human. In fact, with the forecast soundings I`m seeing I am becoming a little worried. As tonight`s storms wane towards daybreak, the boundary created by them is actually being picked up in some of our models. This is unusual and may serve as a quasi-warm front that is expected to slowly lift back to the north during the late morning and early afternoon hours on Wednesday. As it lifts, there is some signal of convection developing along this boundary. With forecast soundings showing 3000+ CAPE south of the boundary, plenty of shear and mid-level lapse rates closing in on 7.0 deg/km, there is some concern of discrete supercell development Wednesday afternoon. Supercell composites closing in on 10.0 and STP values nearing 2.0 suggest a fairly decent chance of tornado development. In addition, lapse rates only get worse through the afternoon. This means large hail (1.5 inches or larger) is going to be possible. While the afternoon potential for severe weather is more on the isolated to scattered level, yet another round of much more widespread storms is still expected Wednesday night. Again, this is an all-mode severe weather threat overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning, with damaging wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes and flash flooding all possible. The next 48-60 hours is going to be VERY active across Middle TN. This is not a time to fret, however. Take this morning and review your safety plan for you and your family. Know where you need to go for shelter if you go under a warning. Wherever that shelter may be, have essential items in there waiting for you. Phone chargers, NOAA Weather Radios, helmets for the kiddos, just to name a few. If you need additional support for making a plan, please visit ready.gov/plan to help you put one together. Don`t wait until you go under a warning. Be prepared. Especially with overnight severe threats for the next two nights. Don`t go to bed without having your phone fully charged and the volume turned up so you can wake up and get to shelter. Once we get through early Thursday morning, I think the severe threat is over. There is an outlier signal from the NAM that the front may not get all the way through Middle TN on Thursday and we could see additional storms Thursday night across our south, but let`s deal with that once we get through the next two days. By Friday, temperatures relax back into the 70s and while the GFS is suggesting some showers and storms on Saturday, most models do not, so hopefully we can remain dry for several days after Thursday morning.

Dew point sitting at 48 right now. Stunning out.

What is a good weed&feed to buy?

Yup. My brothers and I were having a beer a few nights back and we asked the question, "What is the block of 30 consecutive days you prefer over any other in a year." Mine was May 20 to June 20. September is also nice, but it didn't win the contest because of the shorter daylight and soccer mom traffic.

The amount of chasers out there last night was insane. They're goddamned lucky that Barnsdall/Bartlesville tornado didn't Twistex about 30 of them. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

Left pizza looks burned to a crisp, probably influenced by the barstool bozo :p

That's one thing I love about certain parts of AZ, it can be 105 and feel far cooler than here when its 75 and super dews.

Yeah it definitely doesn't look as cool but I still think we see a few good cold shots to at least temper the heat.

Models all look dry for tomorrow. Am I missing something?

You are much better off believing a government climate scientist than a climate denier. Misinformation and lies from climate deniers like Tony Heller or Steve Milloy have been well documented. I am not aware of any misinformation coming from a government scientist.

It is rather rare. Only used when an abnormally significant derecho (such as 8/10/20) appears imminent and the tornado threat is relatively low enough to not warrant a tornado watch.

Didn’t see or hear much where I was Sunday afternoon - evening except for 2 decent +CGs nearby outside of all the cells that day. Though I did manage to capture some photo-worthy, near sunset storm clouds off to the south/east as the trailing MCV that caused the storms over the Rio Grande plains & brush country (south of San Antonio), went southeast into deep STX with a last gasp of cells before everything just fell apart at nightfall. Apparently was mainly day heating-sustained, but did see an EML around 850mb on Brownsville 0z sounding that evening. Took the photos just after 8 pm. * Saw several CG jumpers (clear air strikes from upper body) about a minute apart from each other on that strongest, rightmost/southernmost cell with the mushroom anvil & overshooting top. Didn’t stay mature like that for long though, and I didn’t even have to look at the radar at all while I was watching it outside with the last of daylight to know it was already having trouble maintaining itself. Both the overshooting top & mushroom anvil flanked out pretty quick after I took that photo. No more than 20 minutes at most. - - -

Keeping in mind my mention in this quoted post of “fwiw esp due to a cold bias tendency”, note how much warmer is today’s Euro Weekly throughout the US for 5/13-20 (just 3 days later)! @Met1985

80 mph wind gusts would be the reason if so when I read that warning. Which is considered destructive thunderstorm damage. I don’t remember if I’ve ever seen a PDS severe thunderstorm warning. But do remember seeing a PDS severe thunderstorm watch on SPC a few years ago (which I also never thought existed and is rare).

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Ohio Valley today. A few tornadoes, potentially strong, large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible. ...Ohio Valley... Plains upper trough will eject northeast across the mid/upper MS Valley early in the period as 80+kt 500mb speed max translates from northern OK into western IL by 18z, then into extreme southwest MI by early evening. Primary corridor of mid-level height falls will spread north of this jet, though 30-60m, 12hr falls are expected as far south as I-70 across IN/OH during the expected convective cycle. In response to this short wave, southwesterly LLJ will shift into IL/IN by 18z, then into the mid OH Valley by late afternoon. This evolution will encourage considerable moistening early in the period and buoyancy will increase markedly by mid day within a strongly sheared, but deep southwesterly flow regime. Current thinking is ongoing convection, associated with this trough, will propagate into the mid MS Valley by daybreak, then advance downstream with some propensity for weakening during the morning. However, boundary-layer heating after this initial activity will result in a modest-strongly unstable air mass by early afternoon. Convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings warm through the 70s to near 80F, and isolated-scattered thunderstorms should evolve along the southern fringe of the main jet core. Forecast soundings across the OH Valley exhibit favorable shear/buoyancy for supercells, especially given the steep lapse rates. Storms that evolve within this environment will likely remain discrete, or perhaps evolve into some clusters. Tornadoes, a few strong, are possible along with very large hail. Some damaging winds are also possible.

Taken from 34,000 feet this afternoon

New Day 1 has increased the size of the ENH risk and the hatched 10% tor

This was the big OK storm from 34,000 feet this evening

OKC ASOS gusted to 69mph. Just outside of the PDS severe warning. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=Kokc#

A number of tornado warnings in Missouri right now as well

Looking forward to some late night/early morning storms. Probably will be sub-severe when they get here, but should be a nice soaking. Perfect weather lately to plant some patchwork grass seed for the lawn.

Well shit. That exploded at the exact wrong spot.

TOR for OKC

As always, predict the highest temperatures to be expected this summer at the four airports: DCA IAD BWI RIC and I will start the ball rolling with 103, 105, 106 and 107. Contest deadline 06z June 15 2024 Tie-breaker details: lowest errors break ties, order of entry the last level separating ties For example, 0 1 1 1 beats 0 1 2 0. ... 2 1 1 1 beats 2 2 1 0. ... June 2nd beats June 4th. ___ DEFENDING 2023 WINNER: WEATHER53 ___