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“We are witnessing in the field today the process I described at the beginning of May: as the ITCZ’s active core settles over the Pacific, the convective envelope strengthened in phases 6–7 of the MJO is fueling successive westerly wind burst pulses in the Western–Central Pacific. This injection of westerly momentum weakens the trade winds, carries equatorial Kelvin waves eastward, and deepens the thermocline in the east, thereby accelerating surface warming. Thus, the strong temperature excess that begins in the coastal/eastern Pacific spreads into the basin along Niño 3–3.4; as the Walker circulation breaks down, the Bjerknes feedback kicks in. In short, the atmosphere is no longer merely responding to the warm ocean—it is amplifying it: the coastal-origin, east-central weighted hybrid pattern is advancing step by step toward the Super El Niño threshold. Additionally, since El Niño modulates +tropical forcings during this period, it carries a distinct signature in mid-latitude response composites.” https://x.com/atmoslabwx/status/2075960267096100992?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

This is one of the most extreme July divergences between the tropical forcing and midlatitude patterns. The tropics are clearly in El Niño mode as we can see from the forcing and -SOI with very strong shear over the Caribbean. But the pattern driving the record heat and 500 mb ridges across CONUS is classic -PDO. Notice how the strong -PDO ridge north of Hawaii leads to the classic July -PDO SST pattern. It also boosts the +AMO. Strong July -PDO composites

60 degrees pleasant morning!

Super nino winter incoming

Got 0.15 to add to the 0.25 from Thursday. Calvert with a departure of -7.0 inches for the year is the worst in the region west of the Bay. And now there's no chance for rain in sight. Crushing drought continues

I'm really tired of overcast 70-degree-dewpoint mornings. Isn't the front ever going to come through?

59° actually feels chilly out.

There are a lot of metrics that are very impressive with this event. It’s also equally impressive how non Nino like the pattern over North America has been along with how strongly negative the PDO continues to be. A lot of interesting stuff happening right now for people like us to watch and discuss.

I feel like @dailylurker anymore with these thunderstorm.

Just had a Thunderstorm develop almost right over my house in Stafford. Picked up 1.31” of rain in about 30 minutes.

Today's Highs: PHL: 89 TEB: 84 LGA: 83 New Brnswck: 82 ISP: 82 NYC: 82 TTN: 82 EWR: 81 BLM: 81 JFK: 81 ACY: 77

Total whiff for the lv tonight. Whatever padep or usgs comes up with for drought maps this week, they mean zilch. Let the real drought reports begin.

1. Today it hit 100 for the high at KSAV for the 3rd day in a row, which hadn’t happened since that unforgettable record hot late May of 2019!2. Although the chance wasn’t even mentioned since it was only 10%, the Savannah area had sudden evening pop-ups as a result of an outflow boundary coming S from earlier SC convection that collided with a W moving seabreeze per radar. It’s so cool to see these collisions! At my home, I had a big temp. drop along with gusty winds and loud thunder. Several gusts to 43 mph were measured just off of Tybee. I had two short periods of rain, but together they amounted to only ~0.01”. Other areas in the county like to the SW, to the S (Montgomery), and to the SE, especially Skidaway Island, had significant to heavy amounts. As a matter of fact:PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1042 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1015 PM RAIN 1 NE SKIDAWAY ISLAND 31.95N 81.04W 07/11/2026 M2.51 INCH CHATHAM GA MESONET UGA34 REPORTS 2.51 INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS.

Just visualize the massive snow drifts that will be back in 4-5 months. That should help a bit.

Looking at model SLP forecasts, I see a near certainty that the current -SOI streak will make it to 67+ days. That would then make it the 3rd longest -SOI streak on record (back to 1991). Will it make it past 72 days? That’s too far out to predict with confidence right now. But that appears to have a decent chance as of now.

Thought I might see my first storm in over 2 weeks, but it missed mby. Might have to wait a bit, based on the forecast.

Came home today after spending 2.5 weeks in Vegas and that humidity slapped. Reminded me of when I was traveling to/from Denver for work years ago.

Yeah, I get it. I keep the windows closed during the day, open at night. It's not terrible. If I can't stand this, this year, then that will happen. At some point tough isn't enough. Will use wet towels with a fan blowing, if I really need too. After this tho, 70 will be frosty LOL

I just researched it. CMCC is an Italian climate model. I can’t find verification data, but +5.3C monthly peak isn’t going to happen on a RONI basis and almost certainly not even per ONI. If there had been other models near that, I might have given it a little more consideration. But with it 1.4C warmer than the 2nd warmest on that list and with that 2nd warmest, itself, already forecasting >1C warmer than the current record warmest, I find it hard to consider it even remotely possible.

Big storm passed to our north but managed to get .09" out of it.

Got a flush hit with the ffx cell. Ominous vibes as the first half of the storm had ever increasing rainfall rates that climbed past 1, then 2, then 3 inch/hour as gusts of wind came through. Hit the peak of 3.4 inch/hour as the wind died out, some of the heaviest rates I’ve ever seen. Made even my family come out to look. Still pouring but estimating I’ll finish around a bit above an inch (maybe more if the secondary cell over Dulles hits too). If you look at a longer radar loop (codnexrad is my favorite site for that) you can see how the outflow boundary from MD interacted with the leftover boundary in western fairfax to pop the storms right along it. Neat stuff.

Tonight’s a really pleasant night (here/Columbia) just sitting on a dry deck with a gentle breeze and 78° — who can ask for more? After lucking out with 3-1/4 inches of rain between July 4-9, the last two days have been frustrating watching radar; a trace at best for the last two days as of now. Also while sitting outside I just noticed a lower-level group of broken clouds moving east to west. Easterly breeze has picked up too.