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That look on the 0Z ICON was a thing of beauty at H5. But hardly anything at the surface, outside of the Mts... Not sure why.

I’d sure hope not

Or hour 69

I need that beer!!!

The primary theme seems to be that things get going too late due to the trough being too far east.

WB 0Z GFS. No changes through HR. 48.

Bregman to Cubs

It’s certainly a bit of a long shot but the big storm option is definitely on the table. There’s a lot of energy dropping in amplify this trough and it’s darn near an all out phase and explode type east coast storm. I have the 18z solutions below and you can see the distinct shortwaves lined up, but still on a positive trough axis. The trough eventually goes negative but it’s takes time and doesn’t seem to phase features cleanly/completely, which still yields some kind of event but not a storm of the nature that has occasionally been thrown out by mainly the GFS. Some things to consider, regardless of any eventual storm evolution this looks to be a fairly potent trough and closed 500mb low that develops over or just under PA. I think that alone will probably generate a swath of snows somewhere in central and/or eastern PA as the trough goes negative. Another thing to consider is temps. Tomorrow will be cold and windy but this is a quick cold shot that moderates rapidly for the first half of the week. Temps will likely be mild (5-10ºF above normal) first half of the week right up to the early stages of this digging trough and associated coastal potential. If we do get a storm it will be preceded by mild to marginal temps, esp in the Sus Valley. So when it’s probably 50ish there the day before, don’t be surprised.

The ICON is still too neutrally tilted. The best PVA is well offshore. We'd want to see vorticity wrapping all the way around the mid-level low towards the coast like the 12z GFS. Otherwise the SLP will track east and away from us.

There is no way you whiff with a 500 vort pass like that on the Icon. I call BS.

The GFS is running. Hopefully Randy didn't forget about it and can stop by for PBP, but if not, TSSN's PBP was great last time 'round so I vote him if Randy is absent.

You would think the surface would respond to those mid level changes but it’s not

We are in a lull but snow will happen again. This is New England it snows here. And yes the 2010’s will eventually walk through the door. Larry bird might not walk through the door but Tatum might!!

I guess its over You dont have to look anymore

Then it sends a clipper through at the end of the run and ends up here.

IYKYK

We should move to AK. 4-8 with lollies to 12 doesn’t warrant anything higher than advisory WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 4 to 8 inches with localized amounts up to 12 inches possible.* WHERE...Anchorage and Lower Matanuska Valley.* WHEN...Until 9 AM AKST Sunday.* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...As of early this afternoon, a band of heavier snowfall is just west of Anchorage and is expected to drift eastward this afternoon across Anchorage and Eagle River. It will then spread northeast into the Matanuska Valley through this evening. The heaviest snow will likely be this evening through the overnight hours. Snow will then gradually end through Sunday morning.

Yes. Although not even sure that is a thing anymore. For me it is the fact that the other models are coming around to it's solution from 24 hours ago.

what a shitty model

2026 season will be rockin'

That’s a great setup. Can’t go wrong with Atomic. Quality built and they ski really well. Enjoy! .

Icon looked great at 500, and the ridge was in perfect position with a closed off negatively tiled trough in Tennessee. But surface depiction just slides it right out to sea. Probably the Tpv lobe just dragging everything too far east

ICON lost the second wave, like the Euro.

Wasn't there a time when the GFS handled northern stream better?

18z GFS vs 0z ICON, and to me the ICON looks better at h5. if the GFS can spit out 6-12" with that look then it would definitely spit out at least that with the ICON look