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Just a little bit of fog burning off at 8 am and 55.0/53.3 degrees, another 40's low of 49.0 degrees.

.02 rain this morning. Doesn't look good for rain in the immediate future either. We need some beneficial rain soon.

Far from normal

Wouldn’t get wild or hyped up for severe and tors tomorrow. All the parameters not lined up

Yes. Everywhere but here.

The 7th driest June 1st to 16th at Islip. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Driest June 1st to 16th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1967-06-16 T 0 2 1994-06-16 0.15 0 3 2005-06-16 0.23 0 4 1988-06-16 0.27 0 5 1999-06-16 0.31 0 6 2021-06-16 0.36 0 7 2026-06-16 0.38 0 8 1981-06-16 0.64 0 9 1973-06-16 0.67 0 10 2004-06-16 0.68 0

These things always seem to fizzle in summer with convection involved

I wonder if we see a small high risk on the new D1. That is a wild environment that will be evolving today. That is a very elongated line of supercells which develop ahead of the cold front later and not to mention supercells which develop along and ride parallel to the front and will be ingesting destabilizing air from the south.

But the CAPE is too low! "Only" 1291! Lapse rates not high by Midwest standards. So it works there but not here?

I’m buying decent rains

With the blues skies it was still warm out in the sun. But beautiful day!

55 degrees and rain showers this morning. Yesterday low 42 degrees was 13 degrees below normal. Record was 40 degrees set in 1960.

Forget the stupid hazard type. But holy hell WTF

Both TWN and WUN show far more sun today than the past while and even getting warmish to 23C. TWN has gusts to 80 km/h just after midnight for 3 hr but the sus part is sustained (40 km/h) and gusts are stable during the early hours, there s no way with a strong low and dynamic system like that. Gusts may get even higher. WUN has my lowest at 1am at 989mb. TWN was wildly off with temps this week; about 5C off a few recent days including now.

Sell the coastal . Convection will rob most of the moisture

Yeah that one hurt a lot.

Good, we need the R+.

Let's be honest for a moment, a lot of managers and "senior leaders" are excited about AI because it means less staff. Focusing on weather, the only advantage I've seen from the AI models so far is they come out faster. I haven't seen any meaningful performance in accuracy beyond D3 as a customer of the weather enterprise. That includes the private sector and government. I've been in a few private sector test groups with AI guidance for "perfect long range forecasting", and the verification scores beyond D7 are laughable. I don't need a 15 day forecast, I just need 95% confidence out 72 hours!

The 500 mb pattern is beginning to look more Nino-like during the second half of June. Finally getting the familiar ridge just west of British Columbia. This is allowing the typical June El Niño trough to form near the Great Lakes.

Looks like 58 will be the low. Humidity creeping up today but nothing too bad. Looks like fairly minimal action tomorrow. Carry on.

Get ready for 30C minimums in November and December.

And this is quite the WWB….

Track and structure scream throw in the towel for this ever being named. .

Google is your friend. https://www.agweb.com/opinion/doomsday-addiction-celebrating-50-years-failed-climate-predictions https://bradleyhook.com/why-extreme-climate-change-predictions-failed-what-we-can-do-now/ https://reason.com/2025/04/16/3-apocalyptic-climate-change-predictions-that-failed-to-come-true/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/11/25/why-everything-they-say-about-climate-change-is-wrong/ (does include some Al Gore stuff) etc. etc. Just search on "climate change failed predictions"