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Sounds awesome. Gonna need some evidence posted here.

Hard to find a day w/DPs below 70F...

12Z UKMET: notably further WSW than prior run as it ends as a TS at ~140 miles E of N Leewards moving WNWNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.9N 34.7WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 12.08.2026 72 10.8N 36.0W 1010 260000UTC 13.08.2026 84 10.3N 38.3W 1010 261200UTC 13.08.2026 96 10.7N 40.9W 1010 280000UTC 14.08.2026 108 11.1N 43.9W 1010 291200UTC 14.08.2026 120 11.8N 47.0W 1010 290000UTC 15.08.2026 132 12.9N 50.1W 1010 291200UTC 15.08.2026 144 14.5N 53.5W 1011 320000UTC 16.08.2026 156 16.0N 56.7W 1011 371200UTC 16.08.2026 168 17.4N 59.9W 1010 39

Dps heading up as the line tries to build south, naso confident on a round 2

Is it not reasonable to go warm in the GL/NE for a super Nino? That’s common knowledge. It will be above normal in the mean. Sure we can discuss how it might not be an all out torch (and I think it can be prevented given that we might shut down MC convection), but above normal is an easy call.

Yeah I Got a few drops last evening when that storm over Durham looked so powerful and I Was like great we will get some rain, but just enough to dampen the road here. It died just about 3/4 miles to my west. Thunder was nice and continuous though for a little while. MTD: .51" here so far.

Fort Collins had the hottest July on record with 77.5 average temperature and two days over 100. July 26 was an absurd high 101 low 67 with a trace of rain. That's too warm for the nighttime.

82/67 Typical summer day

Interesting in reviewing the data it is apparently an already altered and processed product and not raw! What about 1855–1892? That's the honest attraction — 462 months, 35 complete years, entirely predating your Source File. But it fails your own standards on three counts: Monthly means only. Your Source schema is daily: High, Low, Avg Temp, Precip, Snow, Sn Cover. There's nothing to put in those columns. It's a processed product, not raw. Your standing rule is raw observations only, no estimated or filled values. This has passed through CRU's pipeline and carries an undocumented adjustment. The 1.32 °C offset almost certainly extends backward. The bias is present throughout the checkable period and drifts at +0.126 °C/dec. Pre-1893 values are probably ~1.3–1.5 °C too cold relative to your network, and there's nothing to calibrate against.

August 9 1948: 7.72 inches of rain falls at Mankato. For Sunday, August 9, 2026 1878 - The second most deadly tornado in New England history struck Wallingford CT killing 34 persons, injuring 100 others, and completely destroying thirty homes. The tornado started as a waterspout over a dam on the Quinnipiac River. It was 400 to 600 feet wide, and had a short path length of two miles. (The Weather Channel) 1969 - A tornado hit Cincinnati OH killing four persons and causing fifteen million dollars property damage. The tornado moved in a southeasterly direction at 40 to 50 mph. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Florida baked in the summer heat. Nine cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Jacksonville with a reading of 101 degrees. Miami FL reported a record high of 98 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Tropical Storm Beryl deluged Biloxi with 6.32 inches of rain in 24 hours, and in three days drenched Pascagoula MS with 15.85 inches of rain. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region and over the Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 92 mph at Harrah. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Evening thunderstorms in Arizona deluged Yuma with record torrential rains for the second time in two weeks. The rainfall total of 5.25 inches at the Yuma Quartermaster Depot established a state 24 hour record, and was nearly double the normal annual rainfall. Some of the homes were left with four feet of water in them. Seventy-six cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lake Charles LA equalled their record for August with a low of 61 degrees. Canaan Valley WV was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 32 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992 - A tornado packing winds estimated between 113 and 157 mph caused significant damage to the town of Chester, South Dakota. Shortly after 7 pm CDT a tornado tore right through the heart of Chester causing considerable damage. Four businesses were destroyed, three others had significant damage, and five had minor damage. An elevator and new grain bin were leveled, and another bin was heavily damaged. Most of the building housing the fire department was demolished. Also, many houses and vehicles sustained damage, and large trees were uprooted or broken off. In one instance a steel beam was thrust through a garage and into the car inside. One mile north of Chester, an entire house was moved off the foundation. The town had to be evacuated for 19 hours after the tornado because the tornado damaged a 12,000-gallon ammonia tank releasing 4,000 gallons of the liquid gas into the air. The ammonia was a health hazard forcing residents out. To the south of Chester, the storm destroyed a new convenience store and blew two fuel tanks over 100 yards. Observances: 9 Sun National Book Lovers Day 9 Sun International Coworking Day 9 Sun International Day of the World's Indigenous People 9 Sun Annual Perseid Meteor Shower Peak Night 9 Sun National Hand Holding Day 9 Sun National Rice Pudding Day 9 Sun Veep Day

You know it’s been humid when a 61F dew point feels refreshing… 8-10 lower than yesterday afternoon.

Hmm, not sure. I go to North Wildwood NJ. because the waves are better, versus Dewey Beach and the Inlet here in Delaware. I did hear there were jelly fish at some Delaware beaches, but I have not heard about any at the lower Southern NJ beaches such as Cape May, the Wildwoods and Stone Harbor. I believe Delaware beaches are more prone to stinging jelly fish due to the effects of the Delaware Bay incubator effect. Also, North Wildwood is more exposed to open water and more active currents lessening stinging jelly swarms. The Cheasapeake Bay might be responsible for more jelly fish activity on the MD beaches due to salinity this year because of the drought, calmer surf and warmer temps in the Chessy .

These dudes are crazy rn. Also sorry for spamming the thread but ya these dudes are nuts

August is now too humid to easily produce 100 degree days.

Thunder is crazy.

MD beaches are dealing with a jellyfish swarm. wonder if it is because of El Niño.

Man was it miserable running with this humidity. Just zero evapotranspiration from the skin. I mean the sweat was squelching in my shoes after seven miles this morning.

I see. Well I appreciate you not adhering to a cookie cutter forecast and applying nuance to this upcoming winter. It's telling that the same people who are excited about the prospect of a warm winter simply because of the reaction of this board were also the ones who went warm for 24-25 and 25-26.

Temps lagging a few degrees today so far. 87/72

I think part of it is gentrification. These places operated on minimal budgets and the courses suffered from a lack of ability for maintenance and upkeep. I also think some places just ran out of generational transitions and were forced to shutter. Heather Hill, Atlantic, and Locust are all being redeveloped into residential units I believe.

Dews in the upper 40s and 50s by Friday!

From the analysis by Claude - Coatesville 1SW trends, °C/decade, 1894–1982 - Key headline the adjustments are questionable.... 1894–1903, mean adjustment applied: −0.72 °C (−1.30 °F) — early years pushed down 1972–1981, mean adjustment applied: +0.79 °C (+1.42 °F) — late years pushed up Net swing across the record: +1.51 °C (+2.72 °F) Cool the beginning, warm the end. That's the whole mechanism, and it's why the adjusted series warms while the raw series cools. Why I put that column in the table rather than the raw trends. The r² of 0.671 is the striking part: 67% of the variance in Berkeley's correction is explained by a straight line in time. These corrections are supposed to be a sum of independent step functions, each fixing an unrelated site or instrument problem at an unrelated date. There's no mechanical reason fourteen such steps should add up to a straight line. That they do — at five of seven stations, all with p < 10⁻⁴ — is the observation worth putting in front of NCEI. Every single breakpoint is code 4 Fourteen breakpoints: 1896-12, 1902-02, 1917-08, 1920-09, 1922-08, 1930-10, 1936-05, 1941-06, 1946-04, 1959-11, 1968-05, 1971-04, 1973-07, 1976-02. Not one is code 1 (documented move), 2 (gap), or 3 (time-of-observation change) — all fourteen are empirically inferred from neighbor comparison. Given that your HOMR work documents six actual site relocations at this station between 1888 and 1982, Berkeley detected none of them as documented events. Worth cross-checking your Coatesville 1SW History sheet against those fourteen dates: any that coincide with a real move is a defensible correction; any that don't is a correction inferred purely from the neighbors disagreeing. Of note only Coatesville 2W had a documented flagged station move across the entire Coatesville lineage - in April 2001. That's the first and only documented move Berkeley has flagged anywhere in the Coatesville lineage, against six relocations in your HOMR research and fourteen all-code-4 breaks at 1SW.

89/74 currently at my station so dews still very uncomfortable