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Cautiously optimistic heading into January. The addition of potential southern stream is what you want to see for better potential in these parts. Blocking plus southern stream opens the door for more appreciable storms. Plenty to like about the latest ensembles, but it’s still D10-15, so don’t throw all the chips in just yet. Will be something to keep an eye on and track as we move into 2026.

I've been lurking in here for 15 years now, Other than Mount Tolland is this ice something to be worried about in SV? . These model outputs seem to be always overdone or is this time different? Stand by power business planning purposes, Thanks for the help all, Happy holidays.

12z EPS and GEFS average around 2" for the first ten days of January, and we still await the even better pattern later in the month.

Yeah all guidance keeps lowering temps Monday . We take

Against the NWS? I will run them when I get back in this evening. This wasn’t the NWS’s finest forecast.

Absolutely, fantastic effort. Dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and that was with an Oline of nearly all backups. Ethan was outstanding, sure looks like he could be the future. I was impressed with the entire team today in tough conditions. Nice way to end the year. Onward.

Wind, heat, CAD and failure. It’s what we do best

You had the last gasp of the extreme warmth that had been over the Ohio valley up to the early stages of the winter storm that developed over PA. I think Latrobe PA also maxed at around 57 F during the day. As you know it was well above 60 F in KY and parts of s IN-IL for a couple of days leading up to the Boxing Day storm in the northeast. That warmth is going to make one last run eastward on Monday before being suppressed further south. I would expect some parts of the MA to max out in low 60s by Monday afternoon-evening before falling into the high 20s and low 30s on Tuesday.

Me thinks work will be busy in January…..

Those that had this area 4-8…yes, we hit the very top number, but the low range was off here. 6-10 for this area was a great call.

18z HRRR FRAM est. makes me a little nervous. Bordering on something a little more than a nuisance. Even these maps seem to be way more overdone often than not though.

Yeah I reached about 6 here in Lindenhurst, the showers lasted on and off for a couple hours and were pretty heavy gave me an additional 2" from the initial 3.5", with about another 0.6" falling with the light snow overnight between midnight and 5 AM

The southern third of DTX CWA gets plenty of warning criteria snowstorms. Since 2000, DTW has had 46 storms of 6"+ which includes 9 storms of 10"+. Yes only two of those were 12"+ but again, climate. Even areas that do get the occasional big dog (assuming its 18"+? Idk what the threshold is for that since it's a made up term)...its a very rare occurrence. Which is why im baffled at those few who follow a forum of weather enthusiasts when the ONLY thing that satisfies them is an EXTREMELY rare event. And Frogtown, I disagree. Being in the crosshairs actually gives us more chances. Again, if all your looking for in weather is a big dog, following actual weather is probably not a hobby for you. I like a good Miller B because those are often good snowstorms for SE MI (W MI not so much). Cutters can cut anywhere from Minneapolis to Buffalo so that's where individual storm track is crucial. And don't worry, there isn't a weenie around who doesnt get anxiety when a warning is issued lol.

Nam a torching

Can you get sleet from a column with a highest temperature below freezing? Does it depend on actual temperature or potential temperature? How much horizontal shift can there be in falling precip in a winter storm? Can the precip reaching the surface have originated more than a few miles west of where it reached the ground? I would assume it would be 10-15 miles max given wind speeds but I have never studied this detail, has anyone ever studied it? I am interested in what happened in pure physical terms, as I was watching hourly maps of temperatures at 700 and 850 mbs during the sleet phase (in NJ) and it seemed that temps were generally -2 to -4 C at 700 mbs and colder at 850 (and 925) mbs. So does that imply a warmer reading somewhere a little below or above 700 mbs? Or is it possible for sleet to occur from a lower thermal max? (I know what sleet is, that's not the question I am trying to answer, but how and where it forms). Glad to read so many positive outcomes and sad about the negative ones, in hindsight it appears that the GFS miscalculation originated with its track for the surface low, it failed to detect the potential for a double-centered low over w PA with a lingering northern component. As soon as that was absorbed into the southern center (which later transferred to the coastal) the sleet turned back to snow for some parts of n NJ. So I think that was the source of the false snowfall regional depiction at 18-24 hours lead time.

Loved Penn State's effort today. Satisfying way to end a crazy season. It'll be interesting to see what Ethan decides to do. I'm a fan.

Can you imagine what a heating bill would look like these days with a mean monthly temp of 25? Have to believe it would cause hardship for many.

Love that look. It's the one I was talking about a couple of days ago. It is going to depend if we can get a piece of that pacific energy to eject into the CONUS.

Wooo baby there’s some bangers in here

Friday-Night Saturday AM Snows Verification Strong Overall Forecast With One Major Exception Failed Hedge Against Data For Best Banding The vast majority of the forecast was very accurate, as can be seen by the juxtaposition of maps below. However, the one glaring fault with the map is unfortunately where it mattered most, which is respect to the all-important best banding. As it turned out, the 6-10" "bonanza area" should have been placed approximately 50-60 miles to the southwest, over the southwestern half of Connecticut, as the consensus of guidance had emphatically signaled. The rest of the forecast was perfect with the exception of the north shore of Massachusetts, where the ocean enhancement did not come to fruition, so 1-3" would have sufficed as opposed to the chosen 2-5" range. But this issue pales in comparison to the aforementioned discrepancy with respect to the erroneous placement of that extremely heavy band that contained snowfall rates of up to 3-4" for a short period of time. Overemphasis Placed on 700MB Warm Front The main forecast premise in Eastern Mass Weather's Final Call yesterday was that guidance was not emphasizing the placement of the 700mb warm front enough as it pertained to where the band of exotically heavy snowfall would materialize. This was obviously crucial since this band ultimately led to major accidents despite a lower holiday volume of traffic. The forecast rationale was that the band would focus where the 700mb warm front stagnated, which was over the upper Connecticut river valley of Massachusetts, much of Worcester county and into the hills of extreme northeastern Connecticut and northwestern Rhode Island. However, the reason that guidance was not targeting this area where the mid level front stagnated, as it would under conventional synoptic circumstances ,is that the dynamics of the system were eroding and being displaced southeast at that point due to the resistance it was met with by the confluent flow to the northeast. This is an issue that the forecast took into account and contemplated when considering the disparity between the ominous forecast soundings over western Connecticut and, the tamer scenario being depicted over Worcester in central Massachusetts. However, Eastern Mass Weather incorrectly took a leap of faith that guidance was eroding the dynamics too quickly, which was the ongoing trend. This would have allowed central Massachusetts to better avail of the stagnating midlevel warm front to endure a protracted period of enhanced snowfall rates, but ultimately these rates occurred instead further to the south, over Connecticut, as the consensus of guidance had been indicating. Final Grade: B-

Decent look after the next couple days,you should be looking at a pattern change the next couple days.As this trough passes through Russia/Mongolia,models continue to show rising heights in this region for several days,just get ready for some moderation into the first week of Jan,throughs into Mongolia/Russia mean ridge building into the Koreas,so you should/could be seeing a -PNA for a brief time

Great forecast for last night and early this AM, with the notable exception that I missed on the placement of the heaviest band, so amounts were oversold in central Mass, where 2-5" fell instead of the 6-10" forecast fell where models had in CT. Final Grade: B- https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/friday-night-saturday-am-snows.html

This is not a bad look for a 30 day mean. The NAO is over the Davis Straits. There is an EPO ridge. BN temps over the northern half of the East with cold centered just a bit to our NE. The Weeklies have been shaky lately so I hesitate to share, but hey…

Verification scores?

[emoji817] Key here is normie, and honestly, they’re not wrong. (I know we can argue semantics, but if you promise me steak and give me hamburger, well…) .