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Thanks. Our areas had a freezing fog advisory late last night, which I believe is quite rare:309 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025 ..PATCHY FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING AREA OBSERVATIONS, SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND WEB CAMS INDICATE THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE PATCHY FOG IS SHALLOW, BUT IS PRODUCING VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS IN ISOLATED AREAS. MUCH OF THE FOG IS FORMING AS STEAM FOG NEAR WATERWAYS INCLUDING RIVERS, STREAMS, TIDAL CREEKS, AND MARSHES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCATIONS. FREEZING FOG WILL OCCUR, EVEN PRODUCING LIGHT RIME ICE ON ELEVATED AND EXPOSED SURFACES. WHILE LOW VISIBILITIES COULD IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY WHERE VISIBILITIES CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES, RIME ICE FROM FREEZING FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY IMPACT ON TRAVEL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING, AND ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DISSIPATE, BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM THIS MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF DRIVING, SLOW DOWN AND LEAVE EXTRA DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU IN CASE A SUDDEN STOP IS NEEDED.

Might see a Christmas Day severe weather outbreak in the Mississippi/Ohio Valley if this keeps up

next couple trending the wrong way for chicagoland and appearing p locked in

Let's DEW it!

Yup...definitely something to consider. Could see 564 heights at 500 and +10C at 850 but could easily be wedged at the sfc

I'm ready for May. Time to fire up the thread

If this suddenly arrives in the grids and has more physical forcing then those on-panels (above) might get 10 or 20% more meaningful to the region ( S-E). If less, the flatter versions there prevail.

Ripping nicely with this band swinging through

Normally I'd take the EPS but its been junk lately. I'll blend the two.

Read my post. Pretty sure it explains the confusion/contention

I left for work at 8:30 (don't judge, I have a late meeting today) and it was 34 with a few sprinkles falling at the house. My low yesterday morning was 12.

The first 10 days of December have been pretty chilly.

right. you know, tracking that s/w's spacing back in the flow ..it's not even yet over the American owned sounding domain. I'm sure we're not exactly purchasing sounding data from Russia heh ...if they are even plumbing the skies over Siberia at all in the first place. Anyway, it's all based on assimilation. Although satellite sounding. Still, it's almost like the models assume something should be there in the flow in that spatial-temporal/geometric region, then propagating the assumption along ...at difficult to manage, ludicrous speed. Perhaps if there was better physically realized, direct sampling the handling might be more stable. I mean I suspect something like this is going on. Look at the Euro's last 4 cycles ... left to right, the most recent to 24 hours ago ( 6 hours apart). On off on off... That's been rather predictable just within that small range. Something perhaps added than missing every other run

What, lmao. It took an act of god to delay or close CMU when I was there back in the 2000s.

University delayed start until 11am, doesn't really seem like 4" would warrant that, but I guess so

If I was a betting man…

21.0° overcast Had 0.1” overnight…racking up those tenths

I think if we all put our minds to it, we could easily crowd fund a small cabin in the Tug Hills of NY

This has been debunked by many meteorologists.

mostly bare grass here at the office near o'hare am snow squalls more of the cold rain variety so far need the late week events to reverse trends asap otherwise looks like white xmas chances are p low imo

Nope, and that's how we learn...in that respect, AI and actual intelligence are alike. Thank you.

Yup, let’s shake the beotch up some. I’m fine with a few milder days, and then see where we stand. Be nice to get the next system though…hope that can work out for us/the area.

6z EPS (favors north of DC) vs GEFS (favors south of DC)....

Not saying it's going to break or it's not going to break. Even if it does, I don't think it's going to be a long-term, warm pattern for the rest of the winter. My point is, no reason to break down. By the way, I really do appreciate reading your breakdown of what you expect for this winter. Nothing ever goes exactly as we plan, but I believe the general consensus of what will happen this winter will fall well into what you had explained in your winter Outlook. Thank you for that