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It is rare air to get all the teleconnections to line up in our favor.....heading in that direction as we go through the next 2 weeks.

5” of fluff will be decimated, even with the cold rain. Swiss cheese incoming

Currently 8F off a low of 3F in E CT, surrounding hills were about 10 degrees warmer…Wondering if models factoring in the current cold air in the SNE valleys and does all of this just get warmed during the day?

Pack here is very dense. Around .7-.8” water in it. As you said guidance some keeps western ct around 40 max, some 44-48 max.. other factors it’s a cold pack, have to raise the temp first to melt it. Also we may get a decent glaze in some areas which will protect it for a few hours. And hopefully minimal warm rain.

4 aspects go against anything of consequence... -- system movement too fast. 6 hours and the QPF's done reporting -- not enough in situ +PP over Ontario/QUE already dammed into the region. -- related to that ... cold is not being actively supplied with sub 0C DPs undercutting; without that thermodynamic fix, latent heat of phase change will self-defeat the situation -- not enough QPF This is a road skidder and a couple submissions to funniest home videos type ordeal ... I do agree though that with initial cold in the Ekman BL drag working with speed of system translation, the whole thing should probably be done with and on the west side of the escaping lp before warm sector makes very far N.

Yeah sell the hrrr here.

Nothing melted yesterday and after a low of 17 and clouds don't expect much to melt today either.

FRAM is the kuchie of ice

So yeah roughly .5:1 like I guessed... Still, 1/2 of ZR is no joke Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Not a ret tagger but remember, those are means. So some members probably have deep lows out in the Atlantic (remember those couple gfs runs ppl joked were producing a hurricane?) And some members have slp and trofs farther west and different timing. Its just a smoothed out piece of modeling that can be deceptive.

Yeah mine will be gone, but maybe Kev over to Will can hopefully keep some since you have more OTG. Might help that Will has a pseudo glacier.

It kinda saddens me that the best snow event of my lifetime is now in my rearview. All of this in 12 hours.

Dec 28 1990 : NYC 7.2 inches of snow had fallen overnight into the morning. EWR: 7.6 LGA: 7.3 JFK: 6.1

But in our years doing this, realistically how often have these looks actually sustained? Let's get this advertised pattern to establish itself and actually produce first, then we can hope it isnt just transient in nature.

Bowling was always great when you're underage because it was BYOB. And they usually didn't check if you look close to 21. Add a wide open parking lot, snow, RWD 19 60/70s V8 muscle cars teenagers equals donuts. Movie/Mall parking lots were good as well...

Records: Highs: EWR: 68 (1982) NYC: 65 (2008) LGA: 65 (2008) JFK: 64 (2008) Lows: EWR: 0 (1933) NYC: 8 (1917) LGA: 12 (2017) JFK: 11 (2017) Historical: 1839 - The third storm in two weeks hit the northeastern U.S. It brought two more feet of snow to Hartford, CT, and Worcester, MA. Whole gales swept the coast causing many wrecks. (David Ludlum) 1897 - The temperature at Dayville, OR, hit 81 degrees to establish a state record for December. (The Weather Channel) 1924 - Iowa experienced it coldest December morning of record. Morning lows averaged 25 degrees below zero for the 104 weather stations across the state. 1927: Cold snap occurs across MN and the temperature falls from 41 to -15 at Farmington, MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1954: A big snowstorm that began on the 26th came to an end over southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. Fort Scott, KS was buried under 26 inches of snow. This amount of snow melted down to 3.05 inches of water, a remarkable precipitation total for this area for the wintertime. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History ) 1955 - Anchorage, AK, was buried under 17.7 inches of snow in 24 hours, a record for that location. (28th-29th) (The Weather Channel) 1958 - Albuquerque, NM, received 14.2 inches of snow to establish a 24 hour record. (28th-29th) (The Weather Channel) 1982: Upper level high pressure off the Florida coast produced a south to southwesterly flow of warm air bringing record high temperatures from the Midwest to the East Coast including: Savannah, GA: 80 °F, Columbia, SC: 77 °F-Tied, Pittsburgh, PA: 71 °F, Cape Hatteras, NC: 71 °F, Erie, PA: 70 °F, Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 70 °F, Jackson, KY: 69 °F, Youngstown, OH: 69 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. Additional Temperatures Given) 1987 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Up to twenty inches of snow buried southern Minnesota, and 20 to 40 mph northwesterly winds produced snow drifts six feet high, and reduced visibilities to near zero at times in blowing snow. There were a thousand traffic accidents in Michigan during the storm, resulting in thirty-five injuries. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Strong winds behind a cold front claimed three lives in eastern Pennsylvania, and injured a dozen others in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Maryland. Winds gusted to 87 mph at Hammonton NJ and in the Washington D.C. area. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Squalls continued to bring snow to the Great Lakes Region, with heavy snow reported near Lake Superior and Lake Ontario. Syracuse NY received 8.5 inches of snow to push the total for the month past their previous December record of 57 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1995: During the latter part of the month, Miami, FL failed to exceed 65 °F for eight consecutive days from the 21st through the 28th, an all-time record for the city.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1996: Pacific Northwest: The same storm that buries southern Vancouver Island ruins the holiday period for many in Oregon and Washington as well. Freezing rain and snow across western Washington and Oregon strand travelers and cut power to over 300,000 homes. Parts of western Washington receive over 15 inches of snow while over 2 inches of freezing rain crust 8 inches of snow in Oregon's Columbia River Gorge.(Ref. WxDoctor) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2001: The greatest lake effect snowstorm to hit Buffalo, NY continued. Another 35.4 inches of snow fell in 24 hours, the city's second greatest 24 hour snowfall ever. Since the 24th, an incredible 82.3 inches had fallen. This brought their December snowfall to 83.5 inches, their snowiest month on record. At one point, 44 inches of snow was measured on the ground to set a new record for the location as well.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History ) 2003 - A severe snow storm hit northern California and southern Oregon. As much as 2 feet of snow fell along Interstate 5 closing a 150-mile stretch of the interstate, stranding hundreds of travelers. Winds from the storm caused power outages to more than 200,000 customers in California and Oregon. One man died of a heart attack after helping other drivers. (CNN) 2004 - Los Angeles (downtown) broke a daily rainfall record for the month of December (5.55 inches). This was the third wettest calendar day in Los Angeles since records began in 1877. 2005 - An outbreak of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southeast United States on the 28th produced hail, high winds and a few tornadoes. The states of Georgia and Tennessee were the most affected. (NCDC)

I dunno, I really think it depends how long temps are above 40F…in your area to my area, there’s a decent chance it wipes the pack. Prob gonna be 12+ hours of 40+ dews. Not a lot of water in the pack either (though my bottom layer from 12/23 is kind of dense). Western CT up into ORH county might keep it though as they spend less time above 40F. If we had like an inch of water in the pack then this wouldn’t wipe it out, but this is not that type of pack.

Faked our way to 1.8⁰ this morning, looks like KOXC hit 10⁰...off to PA for a couple days, beautiful wintry morning....will look completely different went we return. Hope we still have some coverage left, but doubt it.

Currently -1° up here in Shawinigan Quebec.... Lake is frozen... They made a large path to walk, ice scate and Snow mobile on the lake. Pretty awesome

23 / 21 clouds buildin in. Mid / upper 30s today - rain overnight (mix to start in some spots NW). Warmest of the next 7 (at least) on Monday with rain / wind. Cold overall and reloading in the 1/5-1/6 timeframe and beyond it might be towards after the middle of the month before moderation / wamer. As currently looking on: 12/28 - 29 : Warmer / rain 12/30 - 1/3 : Cold (potential snow/ice 1/1 - 1/2 1/4 : Trough building in 1/5 - 1/6 and beyond : Much colder / storms around that timeframe

Probably same here when we saw 1 this a.m. an hour later it was reading 9

My current temp of 29 hasn’t budged all through the night.

The SN/IP zone in Maine kinda gets bullied by the WAA…not something I like to see for going big ice in CNE. HRRR has MHT below 32° for the entirety…hard sell on that. I think it’s underestimating the diabatic latent warming and the lack of Tip’s +PP.

Here ya go. 12z HRRR FRAM est.

Managed to get maybe 3/4" out of that. Sadly, 2nd highest total of the season.