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GFS will always underdo mid-level warmth though in that scenario the flow aloft at the warmest level is like from 280, not as bad as it being from 230 but probably still verbatim underdone a bit. Its why I said before you'll see ratios near 10:1 eventually, even if its 25F at the surface if you're -1C at 750 or 800

Clearly, the urban heat island effect at work in a town of 31,000 spawled across 3,250 square miles.

96th street.

correct..

To be honest, not seeing much evidence of increasing cold extremes in the Juneau data.

Initial thoughts: Greatest uncertainty is the farther northeast into the state you go. The greatest warm air advection is going to occur well to our southwest, from PA into NJ and likely clipping southwest Fairfield County. Where this occurs is critical because this is where the heaviest banding of snow will occur along with the heaviest rates and highest ratios. I think there is room for some higher totals in southwest CT (possibly in the 6-8" range) but there are questions about drier air advecting in aloft and drying out the DGZ. This could result in a solid 2-3 hour window of moderate-to-heavy snow with snow quickly decreasing in intensity and snow growth become poor. This would also occur as the WAA diminishes. It is also very possible the mesos are throwing us caution flags which need to be considered as many of the mesos essentially have one heavy band, with little outside of this band. That would fit the mold of this setup well as much of the forcing is tied into the strong WAA. Might have time to update this tomorrow. Depends on what I have going on for Christmas after work.

Another nothing burger out here. We are going to be in very dire straights out here this summer unless something drastically changes.

2020 I think

Nope

craig should the permanent weather forecaster on channel 2 and not lonnie quinn

can we please get a bump NE, I'd love to end December with at least close to double digit snowfall...

If this all plays out as expected? When was the last time Central Park recorded 10" of snow in December? And how did that winters final totals end up?

Odd, why were -10s and -20s relatively common from the 1940s to 1970s in Juneau? But only twice since (1995 & 2025)? Very weird. Regardless, a quick search shows downtown Juneau was as low as -17F in 1998, so I don't know why the airport was so much warmer. By contrast, Salt Lake City has been above its prior monthly record high minimum temperature (since 1874!) for two consecutive days, and likely a third unless it drops to 52 or lower by midnight. So I don't think those two events are actually comparable from a historical climate standpoint.

Looks like a swing and a miss unless you only look at the Canadian. 12z runs were brutal overall.

Here's the RGEM, shows a very shallow level above freezing but it's only towards the tail end of the event and if rates are still decent enough maybe we can overcome it. It would still yield a beautiful front end thump regardless.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 119 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025 NYZ025-044-045-055>057-062-PAZ039-040-044-048-072-250630- /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0013.251226T1800Z-251227T1700Z/ Tompkins-Cortland-Chenango-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan- Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Lackawanna-Pike-Southern Wayne- Including the cities of Owego, Honesdale, Norwich, Waverly, Hallstead, Equinunk, Delhi, Milford, Binghamton, Damascus, Cortland, Ithaca, Montrose, Scranton, Walton, and Monticello 119 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 10 inches possible. * WHERE...In New York, Broome, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Sullivan, Tioga, and Tompkins Counties. In Pennsylvania, Lackawanna, Northern Wayne, Pike, Southern Wayne, and Susquehanna Counties. * WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

These steps were bare 1 hr or so ago

While models do show a warm tongue aloft, on the GFS it's still below freezing on levels. Obviously for the models a bit more NE it's more dicey.

2-3" for Norwich and New London? Seems a bit of a stretch but ok

New watch for 5-10” for Friday-Saturday. Can take the “just pushed over 20” and change it to “can push close to 30””. And again, not even January yet.

Wish we were in your spot in a couple of days.

It looks like only Chester and Delaware Counties in PA are not included in the WSW. I get these areas won't hit the snow thresholds but suspected due to travel issues they would issue a warning and then move it to a WWA tomorrow. But what do I know...

Euro has the dreaded La Nina qpf firehose look to it:

There's been many. 97-98 and 01-02 never had one for the 5 boroughs but may have had them NW but there's been quite a few winters with none. Obviously forecasts 30-40 years ago were so poor we had many storms with WSWs issue that today never would have been out.

NBM whisker is between almost 0" and 5" so there remains a wide spread of formulations across models. Clearly going to be a meso-defined event so we probably need to get a little closer to onset. 25% chance of 6" or more at KPHL. Not great odds but there's still a clear potential. 4" to 6" seems like a fairly aggressive early call, though, in my non-professional opinion. I'd like to hear an expert opinion on that given the spread.