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It was dumb. There was a receiver open who could have easily gotten the 2

45 for a low, 46 currently

Lots of 40s on the mesonet west of the bay! 52 for me right now.

44 here.

This short video isn't weather relatedI but found this narration to be absolute gold.

Lol, they are fake palm trees. I'm surprised nobody noticed his artificial turf. The lucky bastard also has a little putt putt, endless whirlpool, batting cages, and trophy wife just out of sight of the image and totally out of sight of my dreams.

Nice run of -SOI 14 Sep 2026 1012.86 1014.90 -25.91 -17.50 -20.30 13 Sep 2026 1013.56 1015.55 -25.61 -17.44 -20.04 12 Sep 2026 1012.91 1015.60 -29.77 -17.32 -19.89 11 Sep 2026 1012.86 1015.40 -28.88 -16.53 -19.86 10 Sep 2026 1012.90 1013.90 -19.73 -15.51 -19.92 9 Sep 2026 1013.04 1013.40 -15.92 -14.62 -20.08 8 Sep 2026 1012.32 1014.50 -26.74 -14.02 -20.17 7 Sep 2026 1013.24 1015.10 -24.84 -13.46 -20.04 6 Sep 2026 1014.43 1015.70 -21.33 -13.18 -19.91

^Looks like it predicted the N. Pacific ridge too, which is rare in El Nino.

Upper 40s tonight. I think it will be cold enough in the Winter. Would be really surprised if we do a scenario like 97-98. Last 2 years we had early cold periods in September and they were both cooler Winters. Would have to be an unfavorable index pattern like +EPO if the Winter goes wrong, only mildly connected to ENSO.

after a brief moderate warmup this week we can safely say summer is not only over on the calendar but warm days in the 80's will be a distant memory.

^How well did Jamstec’s May forecast for JJA verify in the CONUS? May ‘26 Jamstec forecast for summer ‘26: Actual for summer ‘26: Jamstec forecast excellent in E US; overall CONUS pattern excellent with warmest in SW US and coolest Midwest although it wasn’t quite warm enough in sone of the SW US:

Coin flip tbh. Might as well!

Here’s my analysis of the new Jamstec forecast for winter: hint SE cold lovers will enjoy this as it is progging the coldest winter in the SE/Mid-South since 2014-5!

So much whiskey that you probably fainted.

It could be that I’ve gotten into some whiskey this evening, but I can faintly see my breath outside.

-Sep Jamstec winter forecasts going back to 2017-8 are available at the site to compare to -Sep ‘26 is vs all Sep forecasts back to ‘17 by a good margin the coldest DJF in the CONUS overall, by a very wide margin the coldest DJF in the E 1/2 overall, and is easily the coldest for the SE, midsouth, S Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. I couldn’t even find a colder one than this for the corridor from Chic to NYC. -Sep ‘26 is the wettest overall for the E US vs the other Sep DJF forecasts -June-Sep ‘26 are all very similar in the CONUS for DJF ‘26-7 and are the most consistent of any DJF forecasts back to 2017-8! Here’s the ‘23 Sep forecast for DJF for comparison (the 2nd coldest since ‘17): coldest is -0.5 to -1C: Compare that to ‘26: like night and day with coldest -2 to -3C! This would easily be the coldest winter for the SE, Mid-South, and S Plains since 2014-5. Also, note how much colder is the Arctic vs ‘23-4. Keep in mind that the Arctic N of 80N from late May through summer was easily the coldest since 1958 for unknown reasons: How did Sep JAMSTEC verify in the E US overall? ’17: too warm NE/close SE ’18: close NE/too cold SE ’19: too cold ’20: close NE/too warm SE ’21: N/A ’22: too cold ’23: too cold ’24: too warm ’25: too warm So, for these 8 winters, Jamstec: -in NE was too warm 3 times, too cold 3 times, and close twice…so neutral bias averaged out -in SE was too warm 3 times, too cold 4 times, and close once…so, very slight cold bias but pretty neutral overall averaged out -Keep in mind that this cold E US forecast is with Jamstec progging an E based super Nino.