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Torch !!!! We knew

You know the storm is winding down as we reach this stage of the discussion. Approaching a total of 3” of rain now. Here’s hoping we get several moisture laden nukes this winter.

6.26, officially cracked 10 inches for the month. I’d be happy if it didn’t rain again until January.

Hampton Beach and Salisbury.. they even had the plows out getting the sticks and crap out of the road..

Beware of mid October cold. Usually doesn’t bode well for winter

The gap between television and other sources such as mobiles apps and social media is closing, however, local television is still rated as the #1 source. Even if people are getting information from other sources, a large percentage still revert to their local network as a means to try and verify the validity.

I get my information from this forum and I'm left confused, sad and delirious.

They forecast not just for boston...and those forecasts should be updated as needed ..

Just dismal clouds here.

most people don't get their information from local outlets but click bait mets, and there is mpst of the disconnect

I will also pull from my grizzled veteran subjective notebook that my general observation has been that whenever we get an over performing, full moon enhanced coastal in very late Sept(25th or after) then that happens a number of times in winter. For whatever reason, when it happens in very late Oct or Nov, we tend to have lousy winters (with only a couple if exceptions)

I think we’ll get a number of juicy storms with “favorable” (south/east of us) storm tracks. Sufficiently cold air TBD.

I was surprised how two out of the 3 were real biggies Dec mild 2012 and Feb cold to very cold all Febs. With what I think will be 5+ Miller As this season we will face more of a cold air struggle than those two very cold non Nino winters

can't believe this is still spinning around the same area...one of these in Jan/Feb please with some nice cold high in Quebec would be outstanding! looks like probably going to end with 2.2" unless it starts pouring again but looks about done...all the flight disruption is now making me come back very late tomorrow night early Wednesday morning, so that sucks but I kinda expected that.

The mountains just to our west did significantly better that winter. But there were several storms that were very close if it was just slightly colder. Of course things have warmed even more since then.

Nowcasts and storm updates, particularly during extreme weather events (severe weather, winter storms, etc.) are absolutely critical and part of the forecasting process

@Maestrobjwa keep in mind for a pattern to be valid you have to be able to explain WHY the pattern is happening. Otherwise it's likely the pattern is simply random. If you flipped heads 5 times in a row, and the only coin flips you ever saw in your life were those 5, you would deduce that coin flips result in heads if you are simply looking for patters and not factoring in random chance and causality.

2 counter points. 1) a sample size of 5 is way too small to pull a meaningful trend from 2) your sample is arbitrary. What made you include 1973 with a peak ONI of 1.9 and exclude 2024 with a peak ONI of 2.1? If you include 2024 then we are due this year. If you exclude both of those years, or just 1973 which most do not consider a "SUPER" nino, the whole pattern disappears. Either way I think my first point is the valid one...it's too small a sample size to try to find patterns like that. Most of your patterns are simply artifacts of random chaos in a stochastic system.

Wrong thread but I got a relacement sled for the one I had stolen. 2021 Enduro 900. Has about 3500 miles on it. Of course we all know that if we have a crappy winter it will be my fault and not El Nino!

Sure, but I think there is value in the GP being updated on whether a forecast is turning out better or worse than predicted. Most of the time, the forecast is the forecast and the changes are so minor they need not be discussed. But for “higher end” events, periodic updates can be helpful—both to the curmudgeon that thinks because the forests haven’t been flattened in the first hour of a storm that a storm is a bust, and the soccer mom that is anxious about taking the kids to the park when it’s not likely to rain heavily now that a storm has taken shape.

Snow fell in Mammoth Lakes today. That is even early by their standards.

I think I jumped to the analysis because I fully expect us to fail this time. I can't ignore the every-other super niño trend. 66' yes, 73'--no, 83' yes, 98'--no, 16'--yes, so it feels like this time will be a no. Not scientific, but just trend... As for silver lining? Nah I wasn't trying to intentionally dig for one--remember I'm not optimistic enough for some around here, lol For me it's a matter of how long it'll be before we see significant snow again. I don't doubt things have changed. But I'd love to see what happens when we get into a +PDO regime again and see if it helps. But I'm at the point where I'm slowly expecting things to work less and less. But we'll see...

When the hell is this freaking drizzle going to end? It been off and on all damn day.

if you aren't in Boston, what is the point knowing what Boston's weather is at that exact moment? mets issue forecasts, not now casts you don't need a weatherman to tell you which way the wind is blowing

Southborough has 7”?