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We have zero control of the outcome of any of this. Fun shit eh?

At least Boston gets the golden shovel. They deserve it.

We ride the lightning here in these types of setups - it's exciting - but folks have to stop see-sawing with each individual model and buying it - I mean we're talking like overreactions of about a 10-15m swing of a mix line and a faux snowmap showing 1-2 inch perturbations here.

I lost 8" snow on the nbm

Yep, up in SLK for the next week or so.

so serious question @Negnao and anybody else Hyperbole. As a pbp person, this kinda annoys me. Most people, including me, accurately described the nam panel by panel. it was colder. Mets concurred. Literally described the model as is. I get the comment tho...because I always have said this is the reason why I'm so cautious and conservative with pbp as to not get people's hopes us because I remember when I used to rely on pbp way back when. I purposedly used words like "a little..a tad....as to not get people's hopes up. How else should we describe a difference. The model literally was colder. I don't know what other words to use other than the factual ones.

The euro is more aggressive with the end of week front, cold press etc. hopefully the spacing improves .

Happy Hour

RGEM was better to me. on to the next!

Not gonna lie you are younger than I assumed you were

18 NAM bukfit for HKHY 260125/0100Z 31 06010KT 21.3F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.029 0:1| 0.0|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.03 0|100| 0 260125/0200Z 32 06009KT 21.8F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.065 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.09 0|100| 0 260125/0300Z 33 05010KT 22.4F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 0.081 0:1| 0.0|| 0.35|| 0.00|| 0.18 0|100| 0 260125/0400Z 34 05009KT 23.3F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 0.100 0:1| 0.0|| 0.55|| 0.00|| 0.28 0|100| 0 260125/0500Z 35 06008KT 23.4F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.20|| 0.00|| 0.099 0:1| 0.0|| 0.75|| 0.00|| 0.37 0|100| 0 260125/0600Z 36 05006KT 23.6F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.056 0:1| 0.0|| 0.86|| 0.00|| 0.43 0|100| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260125/0700Z 37 04007KT 24.3F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.041 0:1| 0.0|| 0.94|| 0.00|| 0.47 0|100| 0 260125/0800Z 38 04008KT 25.1F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.21|| 0.00|| 0.106 0:1| 0.0|| 1.16|| 0.00|| 0.58 0|100| 0 260125/0900Z 39 04007KT 24.7F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 0.139 0:1| 0.0|| 1.43|| 0.00|| 0.72 0|100| 0 260125/1000Z 40 04005KT 24.3F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.32|| 0.00|| 0.160 0:1| 0.0|| 1.75|| 0.00|| 0.88 0|100| 0 260125/1100Z 41 05007KT 25.1F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 0.126 0:1| 0.0|| 2.00|| 0.00|| 1.00 0|100| 0 260125/1200Z 42 04005KT 25.1F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.24|| 0.00|| 0.119 0:1| 0.0|| 2.24|| 0.00|| 1.12 0|100| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260125/1300Z 43 05005KT 24.5F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.007 0:1| 0.0|| 2.26|| 0.00|| 1.13 0|100| 0 260125/1400Z 44 05005KT 24.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 2.26|| 0.00|| 1.13 0| 0| 0 260125/1500Z 45 05005KT 25.1F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.007 0:1| 0.0|| 2.27|| 0.00|| 1.14 0|100| 0 260125/1600Z 46 05005KT 25.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 2.27|| 0.00|| 1.14 0| 0| 0 260125/1700Z 47 06004KT 25.6F ZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.006 0:1| 0.0|| 2.28|| 0.00|| 1.14 0| 62| 38 260125/1800Z 48 08003KT 26.0F ZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.007 0:1| 0.0|| 2.28|| 0.01|| 1.15 0| 41| 59 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260125/1900Z 49 10003KT 26.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 2.28|| 0.01|| 1.15 0| 0| 0 260125/2000Z 50 11004KT 26.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 2.28|| 0.01|| 1.15 0| 8| 92 260125/2100Z 51 12003KT 27.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006 0:1| 0.0|| 2.28|| 0.02|| 1.16 0| 2| 98 260125/2200Z 52 14004KT 27.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006 0:1| 0.0|| 2.28|| 0.02|| 1.16 0| 0|100 260125/2300Z 53 16004KT 28.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009 0:1| 0.0|| 2.28|| 0.03|| 1.17 0| 0|100 260126/0000Z 54 19003KT 28.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.017 0:1| 0.0|| 2.28|| 0.05|| 1.19 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260126/0100Z 55 VRB02KT 30.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.029 0:1| 0.0|| 2.28|| 0.08|| 1.22 0| 0|100 260126/0200Z 56 15004KT 30.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.106 0:1| 0.0|| 2.28|| 0.19|| 1.32 0| 0|100

Right now I like 8-14” for us, but REALLY need to see the NAM Nest not lead the way with torched thermals. Still a nice front end thump and there will be surprises!

I think I was about 14. I'm 47 now. Whatever that is. My brain is in storm mode lol. It was the first time I saw the trees coated in ice with a blue sky and no wind. I also remember the one night during that spell of historical deep winter we also had a low of -4 with 4" of snow. I've never to this day seen snow that dry. It was super fluff. Anyone remember this?

18z is a waste of time imo. 12z and 0z usually tell the picture. I liked 12z today - hopefully 0z is less all over the place .

The Arctic Oscillation has averaged -0.433 this winter. 65% of days have seen a negative AO and 44% have seen the AO at -1.000 or below. Winter 2024-2025 had an AO average of -0.498 through January 23. Arctic air will pour into the region tonight. That will set the stage for the region's biggest snowstorm so far this winter and in a number of years. The temperature will likely stay below 20° in New York City and much of the region tomorrow. The last time that happened in New York City was January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. Snow will arrive early on Sunday. A significant snowfall is likely in and around the New York City area and surrounding region, even as a transition to sleet is likely. At present, it appears that New York City and its nearby suburbs are in line for 6"-12" of snow. Areas to the north and west of the City where ratios will be higher and mixing is less likely will likely see 12"-18" of snow. Lesser amounts of 4"-8" appear likely along the central Jersey Shore and across eastern Long Island. Initial estimates: Albany: 12"-18" Allentown: 12"-18" Atlantic City: 3"-6" Baltimore: 6"-12" Binghamton: 12"-18" Boston: 12"-18" Concord: 12"-18" Hartford: 12"-18" Islip: 4"-8" New York City: 6"-10" Newark: 6"-12" Philadelphia: 6"-12" Poughkeepsie: 12"-18" Portland: 14"-22" Providence: 12"-18" Richmond: 3"-6" Scranton: 12"-18" Washington, DC: 6"-12" The last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during January 31-February 3, 2021 when 17.4" accumulated. Frigid air will return to the region as the storm departs. Highs will be mainly in the lower 20s through Friday. Tuesday could again see highs topping out only in the teens in New York City. Moreover, New York City has the potential to see the temperature dip into the single digits for lows on or more days during this period. Some snow flurries or snow showers are possible Thursday night into Friday morning. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was -19.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.243 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.6° (3.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Doesn't matter what it shows when it is wrong. This model has bigger jumps on it inside 24hrs sometime. Seen it bust 24hr forecasts multiple times. Ya tomorrow 12Z it should have a handle on the actual system and then would use for thermals.

I remember crawling on my hands and knees to get up my babysitter's yard to get to her house when I was 6 in 1994.. It was a solid layer of ice. Ice storms are so pretty! Out here in the country it looks scenic when the ice is glistening on the trees. We haven't had a good one in a while. Sleet, fz rain, whatever it is.. bring it!!

Philly heat island full effect

I don't even look at 18Z.

When you say here, are you speaking for the entire forum?

Seeing clouds with the arctic blast overspreading the blue ridge from 81

19z NBM still bullish.

Here is the trend centered on 0z this evening, def slower moving out of TX. Heights have also been creeping south out that way.

18z so far. Better: RGEM Worse: NAM ICON

Time to start looking at Mesos...