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I know officially it’ll be 1 degree but It’s been above 63 since 3AM. Records get me excited forgive me for showing some passion

GFS about 50 miles NW of the prior run now for Fri rains

Agreed, Carver. I think we ultimately stair-step our way toward a more favorable pattern as November progresses, potentially setting the stage for something memorable as we close out the year. No rush for winter to arrive just yet. I'd rather see the building blocks fall into place heading into December.

Looking like modified pac air torchfest pattern

Drove out to frostburg this morning to tour the campus with my son. Leaves were past peak west of Frederick but still scenic. West of sideling hill leaves are well past peak with a lot of bare trees.

Textbook year of what you want in a Nina winter here. Well above avg snowfall, well above avg snowcover/snow depth, and well below avg temps.

My average temp in December is 31-32 degrees. If I’m 1-2 degrees below average with that much precip, I’m going to be in business. Dec 97 redux .

The Euro weeklies were absolutely bullied in this forum last winter for their expected inaccuracy past week 2 (they showed cold), but i have a feeling we will be seeing the same ones posting weeks 5 and 6 often this winter.

Except it wasn’t a snowstorm so I’ll let you know tomorrow if the forecast verified

Not looking like it will materialize as hoped. https://x.com/judah47/status/2117410654131028269

1. A lot of it in the South is, indeed, from clouds limiting the high temps and rain leading to evaporative cooling. But there’s also dynamically induced cooling during storms due to the strong ST jet. I realize it isn’t modeling a “cold pattern” with Arctic air dominating, which I never said. 2. CWG referred to an EW H5 map at day 45 and in a blanket fashion said this was a “very warm” pattern. That same model’s 2m maps for weeks 4-6 are literally disagreeing with CWG’s “very warm” pattern. That’s what first got me to post about this. Most (S 2/3) of the U.S. is NN to BN on that model run! 3. Despite the typical climo of very strong El Niño, nothing is anywhere close to being certain especially for shorter periods within the winter. Even during very strong El Niños, there have been intervals of Arctic cold dominating though Jan/Feb have had them more frequently than Dec. For example at NYC: -1/18-24/2016 -2/11-15/2016 -1/15-20/1992 -2/9-13/1992 -12/9-14/1982 -1/16-22/1983 -2/5-13/1983 -1/6-13/1973 -2/9-18/1973 -1/25-2/7/1966 -12/12-23/1888 -2/1889 very cold -1/1-9/1878 -1/28-2/5/1878 https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

Cloudless now. Should make it to 70 or so

It always snows in the upper midwest and Lakes. The bigger issue in strong ninos for northern areas is ice thickness, snow retention, and potential abnormally dry weather patterns. Winter recreation is big in northern states, and warm nino winters put a damper on the norm....but it certainly snows.

but did the storm actually happen?

calm down, tiger. it’s going to be broken by 1°.

Sunny again

arent we supposed to get some rain friday?

Below avg snow for I70 in november looks like a lock atp. The dry pattern continues in the long range with the supposed pattern change mid month now fizzling out on the models.

Yea, 1807 was up there on my list. Good stuff, though...he reminds me a bit of Jim Hughes with the space weather focus.

Glorious day. What a winter

Well into the 60s despite solid overcast…but getting some breaks up here now. Looks like eastern sections will still push 70° with sun.

https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2117490059796484274?a=37IteOi_Ly62Baqdd2I&s=19