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It's kind of hard to explain the 1980s cold phase otherwise. We have seen, on record, 5 swings between positive and negative, each spanning about the same amount of time. I think recent +AMO in comparison to global SSTA does look about even though. In 2023 and 2024 the Atlantic was warmest on record, and that fit a typical std a the peak of an AMO cycle. Would I say that the 2030s and 2040s will probably be -AMO, or cold Atlantic SSTA? lol, probably not. But I do think it could come down to near average for a few decades. That's one thing I honestly have to read more up on.

Wellness check needed on the south shore...

Wow that would be 3-4” up here if all snow

We haven’t had a true, meaningful positive trend here in a decade lol

Friend invite with company tix…no way in hell was I saying no!! Haha. All good. Hopefully we play better 3rd period like last game! Here’s to hoping

Speaking of that -PDO (which is getting on my dang nerves, lol), man I just flipped through the PDO cycles...and never has any other time in recent history have there been so many -2s and 3s (and an all-time record -4!) in any other -PDO cycles than we have in this one. I mean goodness gracious is the elephant driving this too? And I'm wondering when we'll know it's finally easing up instead of just the natural fluctuations within the cycle.

Interesting - is the Euro always late for NBM?

I’ve literally moved on. I can’t even watch some nights. You should have gone on Tuesday. At least we won by only playing a period and an OT. lol. PS-Ovi my fav and I own 2 jerseys. However, dude is a statue. Slow AF. He will always my fav, but man, please let this year be the end. Painful to watch some nights.

Well call me whatever but if what has been showing on the models. End of the month could possibly bring some fun.

It looked like the GFS at 18z was going to bring back that insane storm. That period is still looking like it could produce.

At the game. Can confirm….5 min period of futility. Sharks youth on display this game with more stamina and speed off puck. They are legit a good up and coming squad with maybe a top 5 center in hockey.

both were lackluster here, but nemo was better because we didn't expect much to begin with; jan 2015 they pulled the rug out at the last minute. 2015 was a rather disappointing year out this way, but still better than recent years....

Man I’ve been thinking back to all those events that trended better in the final 72 hrs. All the good vibes and naked high 5s that were going on. Man do I miss those times.

Do you believe that the AMO is a real thing?

I was just trying to remember what made that winter fail, smh Ah that was the "cold air trapped on the other side of the globe" winter...

I hope to experience a 96, 05, or 15 again. Though 05 is probably a 1 in a 100 year type season

Yeah HRRR is kind of a furnace in the BL. Meh.

Looks a lot like the 12Z EURO.

Never forget Jan 6th (2024) and an inch of rain from a juiced up southern disturbance that was just a bit too warm. Just didn’t have any good cold air.

Buyers remorse?

Hard time buying that

Will I have not seen. DM I have. Edit - It appears Will is Santa Clause, so apparently he has been seen.

Matches Euro/ NAM .

The deterministic NBM snow product does indeed weight the meso models more, but that's too far out to include them. Even the SREF wasn't in range. I looked at the forecast in question, and the amount of forecasted snow was only around 1.5", but it was largely driven by some very snowy GEFS members. Of note, the winter products in the NBM update at 01, 07, 13, and 19Z. The 19Z products will include the 12Z GFS but NOT the 12Z ECMWF (which hasn't yet arrived by the time that the NBM winter suite is run).

Definitely want it earlier.