All Activity

Yeah, we can see the overlapping influences between the El Niño, MJO, and -PDO heading into early June. The ridging showing up south of Alaska into Western Canada is the correlation with the El Nino and +AAM. The extension of the ridge further east across much of the CONUS is more -PDO and MJO 8-1 related for this time of year. So effectively a 500 mb composite in early June that reflects these influences. A coupled El Niño will vary in its sensible weather related to the other influences.

At least on Monday we should get some cold pool small hailers

heh, what was the conversation about ? Oh, I see. yeah

Yeah, that is what my page shows as of the 27th for the daily value. As for how I did it, that's an important point to dwell on for any PDO calculation. It's dependent on the period of record, the exact domain, how much you correct the climate change signal, etc. All of these effect the EOF calculation that defines the weights that can then be used in the actual calculation. None of this is clearly standardized anywhere, which is why different groups get different values. I think that mine and WCS are better than NOAA who does not appear to have detrended the climate change signal properly.

Just to make sure you just weren't making up s***.

A rainy period is always 3 weeks away here now… Raleigh all but guaranteed to slip into level 2 water restrictions. Saw the lake was headed to 70% (currently 73%) and current restrictions went in at 85%. 60% is next level and that will come quicker as water usage increases in summer

As an aside ... to help (maybe) elucidate some of the scale of this anomaly, did you know that there is a teleconnector where eastern mid latitude N/A tends to trough/ridge at the same time as western Europe? It's just an aspect we covered in FAST II back in school. There are a few of these around the world. All they really are, are just arguments surrounding standard wave spacing in the L/W distribution - the stable #s tending to be the return state, is physically and also statistically (both) confirming these quasi-relationships. That said, ... a +3 SD or greater NW-W European ordeal, with its 95 to 100 F whopper pre June heatwave days over end is a circumstance that DEFINITELY is incongruous with the former inference. We should be hot too. But here's the thing ... this event is sub-index scaled. It's small. Too small really to be 'detected' numerically by the teleonnection inference. It's like reaching into an ice chest, balling up a snow ball, and throwing at us. It's moving S parabolically within a L/W axis, but it's anomalous relative to the L/W itself.

Exactly. A -2.6°F January departure against the warmest thirty-year normal on record is not some historic cold event. It does not even crack the top fifty coldest Januaries locally. In the old climate, that would have been a pretty ordinary, seasonably cold January. In today’s climate, people have become so used to warmth that a modestly below-normal month suddenly gets treated like 1977 reincarnated. That is the broader point they keep missing. Nobody is denying that cold shots happened, or that parts of the Great Lakes had a cool stretch. But it is pretty rich to accuse others of “ignoring the cold” while repeatedly ignoring the much larger and more persistent warm signal. From a historical perspective, it has been very warm year-to-date across much of the Midwest and Great Lakes, and even looking back over the last six months or so, since late November, warmth has easily won the battle. So yes, talk about the cold when it happens. That is weather. But pretending a ho-hum cold month or a two-to-three-day cool shot cancels out repeated warm pulses, record ridging, and months of above to well-above normal temperatures is not weather enthusiasm. It is selective accounting.

The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical tropical cyclone nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.

it'd be funner of this suddenly cold pool insertion aloft were to pass into the region at 18z instead of 06z...

Euro gusts show it . It’s wrong

Mason/Dixon line has been a pretty sharp cut-off for the have's vs have-nots on precip prior to the past week.

There was a big snowstorm Memorial Day Weekend in the Adirondacks May 24-26, 2013. https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/snow-new-england-new-york-weekend-20130527

49.0 for the low, looks (and feels) like a glorious late spring day here!

Nice way to end the ski season up there.

I look at all kinds of records, always have since Ive followed weather. My preference for cold doesnt stop my documentation of all weather (ive kept track of daily weather imby for 30 years now!). If you dont document every single weather event, anomaly, etc than you dont have a climate base to follow. But a few of those one-sided stat machines for warmth only pop in to stir the embers every now and then. Actually, I overlooked this during winter, but I just now realized Jan 15 - Feb 9th, the climatologically coldest time of the year, was 3rd coldest on record at Detroit this year. 3rd coldest of 153. I call that impressive, they call that "the west was warm".

Wow! Nobody is “ignoring cold.” The point is that you’re cherry-picking cold pockets while acting like warmth somehow doesn’t count unless it happens in your backyard. Look at the actual regional year-to-date high temperature rankings: much of the western part of the subforum is top 5 warmest, with multiple stations ranking between 2nd & 5th warmest. Even farther east, places like Detroit, Cleveland, Columbus and Toledo are in the top 10 to 20 warmest for average daily highs, and those rankings are likely to climb with the ongoing warmth. So yes, there were cold stretches. It is still weather. But on balance, warmth has very clearly won out across the region. Only the far north has been more mixed. Calling that an “echo chamber” does not change the data.

At least this storm is interesting. Better than 48 hours of drizzle and fog. Of course worse than a 75/55 and sunny Saturday.

I'm more intrigued by the near or at lowest possible qualitative ranking day on the proverbial misery scale, immediately turning around to a top 10 qualifier on Sunday. 24 hours That's a (probable) under the radar consideration? Like going from 0 to 10 in 24 hours does not typically happen. In the more objective sense, this really is a rare phenomenon, whether it snows or not. Those snow mongers with hardons on May 30th are kind of eye-rolling to be honest. It's like they have no built in limitations or cold/snot bullshit filters in their every day interpretation of reality. Could be July and they be posting "we watch" with thumb up emojis on autopilot. This has looked suspiciously like it could be grapple and probably flip to big aggies in the 1500+ range for awhile. I've heard of snow in the higher hills and mountains pretty late before. Someone should bother to look up occurrence of snow at 2,000 feet+ for all months, and see what the return rate really is. To me this looks like it's enabling some cold cism. But 2 aspects are true. It is a both a cold anomaly, while doing so in a highly unusual way. I think folks are too hung up on getting the cold itself to happen, without noticing that there is a 24 hour pass through a -2 or even -3 SD cold event where both the event entry and exit are extraordinarily steep - big deltas. For me anywho ... that's the fantastic.

Yeah, next week looks drier over the upper SE (but not down here in the lower SE) than it has been recently overall. However, the good news is that the current Euro Weeklies don’t have the SE (including your area) in an overall dry pattern when looking out to the 2nd and 3rd week in June: 2nd week in June: NN to slightly AN 3rd week in June: wetter than normal:

@Stormchaserchuck1 If we have (finally) turned the corner in the Atlantic to a solid -AMO cycle, what implications does that have on the NAO?

but @Ruinknows more...

Translation: “The atmospheric indicators required for the equatorial Pacific warming to be fed back from the atmosphere (ocean-atmosphere coupling) are already visible: a strong negative value of the Southern Oscillation Index, a decrease in OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific (in fact, it is already reaching the values of analogous observed events), and a weakening of the trade winds (850mb) between the coast of South America and the international date line. All these parameters are consistent with the presence and consolidation of #ElNiño. The MJO is playing a role in this, over the last few days.” ^This along with the AAM popping positive are all consistent with a strongly coupling (Bjerknes feedback) El Niño event “A massive westerly wind burst is currently commencing across the West/Central Pacific. As it moves East, this is likely going to kick El Niño into overdrive. All ENSO regions are already solidly above average, and this even will likely help push the warm pool (with record SSTs in many spots) further east into the East/Central Pacific.”

Inventing and mixing and matching data I see - Coatesville is not the most stable station for those 55 years....heck they only have 13 years at 1SW and 25 years at another location 2W. That only adds up to 38 years over a 55 year span. There has been no Coatesville COOP data for the last 20 years!!

You have the PDO only down to -1.18 now? Do you mean current daily? How did you calculate that? I ask because that seems not nearly negative enough if you’re talking current daily.