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Ahh, one w/ MPAS! So @CoastalWx need to stop complaining! We have a version of the RRFS to compare and we know it is better.

WHAN-bulence time!

The 3km NAM is all over the place for convection, both in areal coverage and location, so I do not use it for that. Also consistent high bias for QPF, esp. orographics, so it goes really nuts w/ snowfall. And any NAM is useless for TC situations, as it never was designed for them. The model initialization is "quick and dirty" for a "first look." That's why it often does odd things beyond about 36 hr. Model initialization is key, and that why the ECMWF is often better and why it is available later b/c they take care for the model initialization. The value goes beyond the weenies that understand the above. For those hype-masters that are always looking for the model that shows "the worst," having something like the NAM just ends up promoting bad/misinformation b/c of it multiple shortcomings. Yes, all models have shortcomings, but let me put it this way, all those memes about the NAM? (the most classic meme attached). They exist for a reason! Yes, we are "used to it" for bias, but we will get used to the RRFS biases as well and its MPAS model core will be implemented in 2028. @CoastalWx needs to move on and realize you can't have it the same forever. By that logic, he would still want the LFM and NGM!

Yes, and it's had a negative correlation with winter during the modern era, meaning -AO maybe favored this winter.

Tell me why it won't snow ever again in 5,486 words or more- JK

Water temps 75 - 78 along the NJ beaches / shorte

DPs are still nasty this morning, hanging in the low-mid 70s. should get some relief this evening and tomorrow

Issuing a winter outlook, even a preliminary one, in August is dicey.

2019 was at least dry until mid-October, which helped lower the humidity. September 2018 had multiple days of monsoon rains, amounting to almost 10 inches, and only 14 days with no precip.

Heh... that doesn't even look like a climate inference here. It looks like a straight up geophysical response. Like in the model process, the boreal Pacific/seasonality presses up against that colossal heat source between the Date Line and Central N/A. Rather simplistic arithmetically, too. Like two factored: seasonally cooling N + supremely hot S = boom jet. I only mention it cuz of the "C" in C3S. Doesn't that mean 'climate' ? It brings to mind ... I haven't heard much talk about AR phenomenon. "Atmospheric Rivers" are a real thing. Their identity I've recently felt has been over applied and (no pun intended) thus watered down. Like every time California was getting a cut-off low over the lower G of Alaska, sending spoke waves of wind and rain into the west coast we were getting AR headlines and I'm like no - not really. I mean it may be that the definition can apply? But the origination of the Atmospheric River identification of phenomenon was linked to what is called a "Pineapple Express" - from HA, a fire hose sets up... and it's more like a hemispheric event than a local pattern ordeal. 'Sides, those Cali reservoir recovery events were surprisingly during La Ninas. Whole nother weirdness... Anyway, the pummeling California took in 1983 was (apparently) tied to a super Nino of the era; now that was an AR/Pineapple Express. So, the stuff above can be right in principle, but the placement could end up N of that axis just the same. And maybe, just maybe is an early hint

Excessive heat warning once again. Currently at 10:45 am it is 92/83 for a feels like of 118. And it absolutely feels like it too.

Recorded 0.1" of rain from the surprise morning event. Definitely a wetter period as of late with recordable rain for 5 of the last 7 days, though totals have been small, only totaling up to 0.47". Guess I don't have to water so much this week.

It was worse in 2019.

Burn off or=ccuring

The latest C3S seasonal forecast shows the strong El Niño's growing influence on what will likely be a very active subtropical jet during the fall and at least the first half of winter.

I really hope they're wrong on this. September-October 2018 was just horrible. If I wanted Florida weather I'd move there.

Hmm, forecast looks like a Nino, and it feels like a Nino out there. oday Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tonight Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 9pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 67. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Calm wind. Thursday A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 86. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday Night Showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers. Low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Friday A chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday Night Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am, then a chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night A chance of showers. Partly cloudy,

Most spots dry out a bit today with sun returning we could see a couple showers toward evening especially across southeast parts of the area. A bit less humidity today and especially tomorrow before the chances of showers increase again by Thursday afternoon into the night. The weekend looks to continue shower chances as we continue to erode any drought concerns across the area.

Most spots dry out a bit today with sun returning we could see a couple showers toward evening especially across southeast parts of the area. A bit less humidity today and especially tomorrow before the chances of showers increase again by Thursday afternoon into the night. The weekend looks to continue shower chances as we continue to erode any drought concerns across the area.

As someone who lives in the la Nina screw zone (central MD) if we gotta get one I'd much rather it be the earlier 27-28 and 28-29 (because they always seem to double-dip) so we can maybe try for another nino for low solar minimum time

0.02" from yesterday's event. So stupid.

This would probably be the resolution

Does he have an archive of vis captures from great coastal misses over the North Atlantic?

I think the MPAS is the v2 Scott referred to. The other has the broken FV3 core. Someone else more in the know can correct me if I’m wrong.

Actually I’m a meaty urologist, but this was the closest tag we had.