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1/27 - Stoney Creek

Fort Smallwood Park, Rock Creek, & Patapsco River - 1/26

1/25

All 2m temp forecasts are the same though. It’s just how the anomalies are interpreted. Would agree that EPS are running slightly cold of GEFS/GEPS suites.

Tomorrow will mark 21 days (3 weeks) of straight snow cover across most of the region. Currently it appears likely we will hit the full straight 1 month mark by next weekend with cold temperatures remaining and some chance of additional snows in the period. Fairly rare for N/C NJ and NYC Metro, we get a 1 month (or more) straight of snow cover roughly every 5/6 winters.

Regardless of amounts…the weekend winter vibes continue.

Haha. Oh get a grip. This is a message board...not a scientific paper. @Holston_River_Rambleris a great poster. You failed to mention both January and December (when averaged together) will be BN for temps at TRI w/ AN snowfall. Talk about misleading and only telling part of the story. That is cherrypicking on your part. Plus, you are in the February thread trying to discuss stuff from almost two months ago about a region I am assuming(not sure to be honest) that you are not a part of. We don't need a hall monitor. Trust me, Holston and Mr Bob are a lot more polite than I would have been. You are just in here stirring the sh!t.

Indeed. Looks like mid 20s at midnight. In fact, it stays in the mid 20s through around 4am, and we then drop at least 20 degrees in the 4-5 hours following.

Single digits forecast but so far haven't hit it yet this year. Will this break the streak? Probably not.

Yeah models are looking surprisingly decent for tomorrow for Central VA. Both NAM and HRRR have at least 0.10" QPF. Might be nice for areas that missed out on the last two threats

Blockbuster??

13.6

16 already. Tonight should be in the single digits here.

So it's a garbage storm for us, got it.

Yes, and no dry dong look for the CTRV... so it's probably wrong

The soundings are quite unstable in the lower to midlevels. If you can localize a little extra lift in that type of sounding, then you can get some surprises that happen quickly.

Nam pretty aggressive in parts of RVA for tomorrow. 1 1/2" of snow in spots?

Agreed. The model signal is there for a localized area to get lit up. A widespread 1-3” but some town gets 6-8”, or more. 00z NAM likes Essex County.

There’s no indication that the Euro native site is using 1981-2010 for its climo base. Is it possible you’re mixing up Tropical Tidbits with the Euro native base? TT does use 1981-2010 as that’s what’s shown on many of their maps. Regarding the Euro native site itself, it refers to the last 20 years for its climo base. So, that means a base of 2006-2025 for the in-house Euro maps. Compared to the 1991-2020 base of WxBell, that means the climo base for the native Euro maps is actually warmer than rather than colder than WB. So, if the only difference between WB and native Euro were the climo base and WB didn’t have algorithm issues, then the WB anomaly maps would actually be a little warmer rather than colder than the native Euro maps. So, that means that the WB cold bias is actually even worse rather than better when considering climo base differences! So, there really is a big problem with WB Euro maps. Thus, if anything, WB Euro Weekly NYC 2m anomalies on that map are >3F too cold…perhaps closer to 4F too cold! And don’t forget that out west, that WB map is 5-10F too cold before considering climo base differences based on what I just showed! @MJO812@donsutherland1

It's Paddy because in Irish Patrick is spelled Padraig. There are way worse "ethnic slurs" used by the Brits and their collaborators.

Coating to 2”

What about the rest of us?

I still have my American Flyer from childhood. One of these days I’ll get around to refurbishing it—sand down the runners and repaint them, refinish the wood. But for now it remains one of dozens of “I’ll-get-around-to-it-someday” projects on my list.