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I was never buying the GFS way OTS or the Euro hooking into NJ. And i was never really "excited" for this event. I've had enough rain and would have preferred to get a few things done outdoors this weekend. Lots of fairs, festivals, and fall events going on this weekend as well which sucks for those people trying to make a living. 30 mph winds isn't enough for me to sacrifice a weekend outdoors.

This will be my 3rd year doing it. I did the Freedom Tower stair climb in June. Had to climb over 2k steps and 104 floors. Took me over an hour but I did it .

Awesome.

The warmer minimums this month relative to the maximums have been driving the departures. NYC stands out at the coolest major urban station with the trees too close to the sensor giving an assist to the cooler minimums relative to the nearby urban sites. NJ and Eastern PA have been the warmest sites this month to date. New England has been the coolest this month which was further from the record ridge to our south. 9-1 to 9-22 minimum departures MPO.. +3.0° NBW…+4.4° PHL….+5.2° SMQ…+3.6° EWR….+2.6° NYC…..+0.8° LGA…..+1.4° JFK……+3.1° ISP……..+1.8° BDR…..+0.7° HPN…..+2.2°

This could be another great test for AI guidance. However, didn't we have some similar scenarios last winter (maybe not truly anomalous as this setup is given time of year) but where we saw AI guidance holding steady and then collapsed towards traditional guidance inside of like 48-60 hr?

Good for you man. Great cause.

.97" yesterday and .03 overnight. Event total 2.42". An above-average month; first since May and only the second this year.

Hopefully Im participating in the Tunnels to Towers 5k event in regards to September 11 2001. Walking from Brooklyn through the tunnel to the new Freedom Tower.

6z euro op doesn’t seem east at hr 66.

Only a couple of weeks until the NAM is toast (unless that gets pushed again). I don't know why I thought of this but it's kind of funny, just thinking of how many models have been introduced and retired since the Cowboys last won a Super Bowl

I do like seeing the euro AI kind of hold steady. It’ll be interesting to see what the 12z stuff does today. But when you get an anomalous 500 set up and multiple lows with convection all over the place, models are gonna have a tough time resolving it. I don’t know how good AI is for something like this.

Not sure. Euro looks like it was too amplified.

You mean impressive wind will be confined to the cape?? I had a great inside tip from my pal, climo....should have listened; dude knows his stuff-

What a difference between debbie downers here and the hype machine social media death and destruction with pretty colored graphics. Lots of reds and whites on maps.

Perhaps a few smashed pumpkins as they prep the razor blades for the trick or treat candy....

Definitely a much less impressive LLJ on the Euro (except towards the Cape). One thing that seems noticeable too is differences with the handling of the high to the north (on all guidance)

Windshield wiper effect

Euro ai holds steady

NYC in the clear?

Yep euro again coming east. I want it to be dry sunday. Im walking in the Tunnels to Towers 5k event.

A snoozefest is in the realm of possibilities

Euro ticking east again

Just be leery that it may not be the wind if the bushes are reverberating.