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Just started typing up the analysis and I think it'll generally make a lot of people rather happy.

Look at the wind chills after....if millions lost power this would be a devastating scenario. Atp, Earth can keep its 34"

In some of the top biguns CHO tends to do really well, I could see them over to to EZF being a jack zone

As much as I love this GFS run, I dont think it happens like this... i would lean more euro/euro AI/EPS over anything

Models lost the Jan 29 storm. Hints are there around Feb 1. Maybe they'll find that Miller A again. Weeklies look cold most of Feb. -AO is noted but Europe will get a break. Fine, we'll take it over here. Just not ice!

Is there a major storm where the GFS WASN'T overly suppressed? I would be more concerned if it wasn't.

I really think the European model had to have a little discussion with the GFS if you know what I mean. So now it came into line this time it needs to continue to come into line with King euro lol

lol-showing 5 inches of sleet in my town…

Those few hours of 700 mb and 850 mb at/above freezing, but only by a degree or so, spells sleet not freezing rain. Partial thickness charts also show the shenanigans. Fine line between staying sleet, and a half inch of freezing rain. I wonder how amped the NAM will be when it comes in range. Prolly Quebec us. Let's hope the Euro trends colder for snow.

+1

The 2016 blizzard obviously was a totally different animal. Mainly it was a far better-defined scenario (and a Nino) that the models can handle more easily. I've said this before, but I swear a week before it hit while looking at model discussion on this site, every single model clicked into place for a MAJOR event. It was only the details that were to be determined. But we ALL knew it was coming, and game on right then. From that point the models really didn't waver outside those fine details. I believe Feb. 2010 (the first one, Feb. 5-6) was similar, long lead where it was well pinned down what was coming.

I'm thinkin sleet is likely for me even though most models show my area in the safe zone. If it's a qpf bomb like it appears to want to be, climo strongly favors sleet. But it's quite a wall of confluence unlike a scared HP running away so maybe not...

The floor is rising. 18Z runs are no longer slowing down the southern stream and we have some buffer room if it decides to come more north. GFS is no longer the odd man out. I do expect the NBM means to peak right around now as some of the extreme tails get clipped (and there aren't that many duds left to fill in). So don't be surprised if that comes down a hair. Should be able to do a first guess map by tomorrow at this rate.

Still think the jack ends up north of Richmond. Not really sure where. But maybe a line from Harrisonburg east. Something like that.

31 for a high here and 28 at 5:30

Wow to Weather Channel map

A lot of that in north Georgia could be sleet

Holy --- BLEEP --- is all I will say for now.

Oh My. This looks legit

Big takeaway is all the models at the current time give some snow to the region.

Weather Channel forecast at the moment

Cleaner phase and we are great

3 days of watching the correlation coefficient radar. Fml

Need to bring the full snowmap into this thread. I see it's up to 30ish inches now, when it's all said and done.

No it doesn’t? Atlanta and Eastward was never supposed to get snow. It was always going to be sleet and freezing rain. The GFS still obliterates Atlanta to Athens with heavy heavy sleet and freezing rain. 4-6” of raw sleet and another 1” of freezing rain….. The snow was always supposed to be the mountains only. Atlanta is still going to get plenty winter weather in the form of sleet and ice. .