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I think so.

Euro is paltry compared to GFS.

8.25 final

@The 4 Seasons 4" final here.

So you’re saying it’s for sure going to be rain for the next 2 storms?.

I would do another LES chase sometime. Would you?

The original thought was that we were coming out of deep -AO, rising back to neutral, so this could be the big storm. But the Pacific pattern is entering an extreme, and a now projected +450dm -PNA north Pacific High pressure is going to in trend, squash that EC trough, to at least make it warm enough to rain imo. The NAO ridge is right over top, so when the Pacific pattern changes it sometimes take 3 days to impact us downstream, this one is part of the now-time pattern, with a trough perhaps sticking beneath upper latitude ridging. The GEFS has basically brought the NAO to neutral, as you pointed out and the EPS is weakly negative. At this range the ensemble guidance and big picture pattern is the way to go.

About five inches here in Clinton, maybe a few tenths of an inch more. Going to be another bright night under the waning moon.

February 6-7, 1978

Hear me out. Buy 3 flamethrowers, hire a couple guys and yall go to town in your yard and driveway. It’ll be expensive but now we all know you can definitely afford it.

The AI models don’t resolve those kinds of details well. They’re not trying to. They are good imo with the synoptic level setup. Track is major features. I wouldn’t worry about its thermals. This run was a snowstorm. Some of the past ones were rain and the funky snow map showed snow and I didn’t feel like arguing about it.

Just realized that the 1934 records were for Monday (Feb 9th), tomorrow is Feb 8th so the 1934 records I mentioned were set (like NYC -7F) at midnight on the way down to readings below the records quoted. For some reason I had it in my mind that tomorrow was the ninth. Anyway, I can see where it may not drop quite as low near the coast because of continued stronger winds there but I bet it gets way below zero over this fresh snow pack if skies stay clear most of the night.

mainly because it has been so cold below normal for the season cold

The temperature in Central Park has fallen to 8°. That is New York City's coldest temperature since February 4, 2023 when the mercury dipped all the way to 3°.

Tomorrow night looks a bit too windy, if it was not I think many places would go below 0 outside urban areas Monday AM.

If we don’t end up with another warning criteria snowstorm or two it’ll be a C.

My neighbor has a couple beautiful river birch trees that hang over my driveway. They drop sticks like it's their job during windstorms. The annual stick crop is plentiful

Down to 8.6 here. Fucking ridiculous already. Enough.

He's struggles to accept CC....I've tried to explain that acceptance is the easiest path.

Gap in my education...so PD I was the snowstorm of February 1979? That one is kind-of a forgotten storm, I recall a foot or so. Would you happen to have a snowfall map? @Tatamy

Contest snow is only a Trace, as 0.1" before midnight outside the contest period. Prue11 leads on that element so far. Today's max of 27 (before 0500) may not stand after tomorrow, but we never know. Our mildest low max prediction is 24. Our mean is 19 and our lowest is 16. For the min, almost bound to be tonight the forecasts range from -1 F to +9 and the mean is +6. The record low is -7F set at midnight on the way down to the coldest of all records at NYC, -15 (1934) Feb 9th 1934. It was -50 F upstate and in rural eastern Ontario on that frigid occasion (under a strong arctic high). That day also set the low max for Feb 9th, 8F. Two earlier very cold Feb 9th's were 1899 (11, -2) and 1875 (13, 0). Since 1934, the coldest readings on Feb 9 have been 19F (lowest max 1994) and 9F (lowest min 1979). The record low max for Feb 8th is 8F in 1895, and the lowest otherwise is 21F on several occasions. The coldest min since 1934 was a -2F reading Feb 8, 1963.

@Stormchaserchuck1 one thing though, legit point of contention, isnt what the nao is a few days before the storm more important than the day of? By then the tracks are set. So many of our storms the nao was near neutral the day of but was set up by a -nao leading up to the storm.

Actually this is the area I'm in. I appreciated what you stated about ignoring them.

I can see how this season could end up an A or a C - draw your own conclusions why

Well honesty though.. does anyone really pay much attn to BOX maps? They are always too low . I mean we all look at them and they’re frequently posted on here, but most folks don’t think they’re going to verify . They struggle where to put warnings up these days where they should . And advisories