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Nothing is a very good metric for measuring anything if the index is going to be taken at face value without an understanding of what the number is trying to convey. It harkens back to what we discussed regarding WHY the RONI lagged the ONI that season.....the weaker hemispheric expression was due to the antecedent cool ENSO configuration of of the hemisphere partially masking it, which was also reflected by the -PDO. It was very similar to the 1972-1973 in that sense. This is also why the degree of warmth across the NE that winter was still redolent of a higher end el Nino.

Yea, I am not resigned to a dud-winter next season. Quite the contrary, I think we are going to need an excessively strong and eastern biased warm ENSO to counter the clear paradigm shift we have observed in the north Pacific over these past two years. I think short of that, I am going to be be inclined to favor a 2002-2003 sort of outcome. I could see it gong either way at this point, but I think a lot rides on ENSO this season.

27 this morning.

your future is hot and dry leave now before it's too late

Daily oisst has moved into record territory, continuing to track 2023; but 0.1 - 0.2C warmer. It is likely that SST will continue to set daily records until the developing nino fades sometime in 2027.

Bottomed out right below freezing, 31.9. Looking across central NC looks like most areas (besides RDU) got below freezing with some areas seeing sub-28 degree freezes. Pretty big temp bust by NWS I don’t think anyone was explicitly forecast to get below freezing. That’s now the 4th 32 or lower reading this month IMBY

I remember that outbreak but I was living down in Savannah at the time and don't remember a "feel" to the air or anything. Can you describe it?

latest 3km NAM looks fun enough for chicago tomorrow afternoon

A lot of the warmth in 23-24 Winter was from +WPO. A little harder to connect that to ENSO. Beyond that, are you saying that El Nino has an anomaly relative to global warming, or it's just global warming points - everything is warming everywhere? Does the same work in reverse for La Nina's?

Region-wide installs?

Even the ONI has been having issues due the warming baseline updating every 5 years. So a +1.5 ONI today can have the same actual SSTs and heat release to the atmosphere as a 1.7 to +2.0 ONI did back in the old days. It’s a bit like relying on departures for temperatures as the same temperature these days as the older era will have a smaller departure due to the warming baseline. This can lead to super El Niño winters in actuality like 23-24 appearing weaker on the ONI and RONI due to the warming baseline shrinking the departure. But we saw how strongly the global temperatures spiked with that event along with the warmest winter on record for the CONUS with lower ONI and RONI values than 97-98 had. The all important 500 mb atmospheric response was very close to 97-98. Plus the 23-24 event was so spread out from Nino 1+2 to just west of the dateline that the collective heat release was very impressive than just looking at the actual Nino 3.4 SSTs.

Low of 32. Looking like a chilly day for the neighborhood easter egg hunt on saturday.

Euro has a couple days of 85-90 later next week

Snow !

Shorts and a hoodie

37 here Loving it

Maine

Gawx has pointed out that March 2026 will likely be the most +NAO month of March since 1950. Surprisingly, rolled forward to April and May is not a warm composite April May March to May

Big time warm water is getting going in the western-subsurface. Could help to push the Nino a little further west if it stays under Nino 3.4 and surfaces Nino 4 is warming

33.4, could get a freeze tonight. I'm glad I waited to plant my garden.

Some more fun things Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

here is a gif i made while working on a project that I think people might enjoy. It shows weather station density in PA, NY, NJ from 1930's to present day. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1r4BDH1gMlgvlXgP7s1zNFQnUv9bTeEhS/view?usp=sharing