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good chance given the pattern staying cold over all through early April (Assuming that happens)

I just need 3 more. Hopefully we get it .

My KU window was off by like 6 days on the blizzard...was March 1-15.

This was my best outlook to date in the 11 years I have been doing it, but it wasn't perfect by any stretch. There are avenues for improvement that I will discuss in the post season analysis...most notably, I emphasized the thawing PT regimes too much in the composites, so the temp composites were not cold enough....thought H5 was very good. I pretty much nailed the progression of the strat.

Which winter month didnt we have snow? Dec 13 storm, Jan 25 storm, Feb 22 storm. You're butthurt because it didnt snow when it was 0 degrees for that 2 week stretch? We had it all this winter my old friend. Minus a significant fzra storm. I give it an A for sure. Im on the fence adding the + We dont get winters like this one very often. This was rather rare territory tbh. Try geritol

You *DO* need one hard freeze in late March though. Gotta trick all the bugs into coming out and then just when they're ready to become annoying? Kill them all off.

It feels like every 3 years or so when the PV breaks down and we get a perfect track cold late April rain storm

Yea, -PNA from here on out, as expected....but that was also the case in March 2018, one of my two main strat analogs, along with 2001. It won't be as cold, but not will it be prohibitive to snow.

Okay, that is recency bias, but they are prone to getting more vicious blizzard than other other locales when they do get them...that is more what I meant.

my question to you guys, how come Central Park temperature is always warmer from the Noaa.gov website compared to the weather.com and iphone app. Currently it's 35 degrees on the noaa.gov while weather app has us at 31

19 this am

Easter blizzard

They can't measure correctly

Nams are a nice look for CNE and NNE but work here too.

It'd be awesome if you could calculate return rates/quartiles/means with all your interpolations, @The 4 Seasons. Are your products still images, or are they vectorized/rasters? Random, but a colleague sent me an image of your 1888 interpolation yesterday

Hey guys so I’m very late to this as I’ve been awaiting approval of my account but having been at Wintergreen for the storm last Sunday, and having been a long time reader of this board and a poster back in the old days, I just had to get a new account to weigh in. The mountain absolutely received over a foot of snow, and I have no doubt of the 15 inch report. At 7 am we already had 3-4 inches on the ground. It then snowed the next 12 hours straight with snow becoming heavy by noon and from 2-6pm coming down at a rate of 1-2 inches an hour easy. I cleared my car off to try to leave the mountain at 3 and by 3:30 it had another inch on it. It was that kind of snow. We ended up not being able to leave the mountain as at around 3:45 we got stuck on the main road down and they then announced that road, and all roads on the property, were closed. We were able to turn around and get back to our place to spend the night. Everyone at the ski resort itself had to actually stay on the property until roads reopened at 6. I didn’t officially measure during the day- we Skiied all morning and by evening the winds were incredible, but, as noted, at 7am it was already 3-4 inches deep and that was well before the really heavy snow that followed. It’s laughable to say the mountain only got 6-7 inches- there was easily that by midday! Our neighbor did measure in the evening and reported 13 inches. Resort of course said 15 by morning. I’ve been through a lot of big snows. The rate of snow up there from noon to 6 ranks amongst the heaviest I’ve ever seen. It was a remarkable micro-climate moment I’ll never forget! I’ll share some pictures in a bit when I get a little more time.

Hope the majority of cold dumps center-west. We can all agree

Was finally able to edit my time lapse out of Norton, MA. It's not my place (brother's), but man... I wish I was there. His kids finally returned to school today (all <4th grade).

Thanks. Even way down here, record lows til the midpoint of March are in hard freeze territory including a 26 on March 16th in 2027! There were even a couple of hard freezes in late March though they were way back in the 1950s.

Thanks for posting this. These are interesting to follow. -GEFS not surprisingly came in a bit weaker with its amplitude. However, it still remains stronger than Euro/JMA. -Stark timing differences remain. On March 7th, whereas GEFS is still in phase 5, EPS/JMA are in phases 7/1!

I know that we have had hard freezes in March, usually early to mid, before so I don't count out the 20s until the end of the month.

How I know I am checked out… first thing I loop in the morning is 850mb temperatures. Like what I see starting end of next week and really around the 10th as Tip mentions above.

Yup. I'm going to go from salty windshields to buggy windshields. I don't mind the bugs, but with me doing trucking videos, the biggest, messiest bug splat seems to always happen right in my camera view...lol

20" of snow from Monday is down to about 3-4" on the sunny side of the street by Friday morning. Sun angle. I guess that's why meteorological spring begins this coming Sunday...

It's very situational, we had got down to grass across all slopes and sunny spots, so there is no bullet proof anything under those parts. On the other hand, the shady spots still did have, it was definitely higher moisture when the snow started, and the compacted shoveled piles are rock solid. There's also already grass in places, where they were scoured out by drifting. A huge part of the median next to the beach this morning is grass. I think it'll be winter on one side of the street and spring on the other by tuesday, anyway, bar the ploughed spots, but we will see. I find it substantially more interesting watching it stack in 26 hours than to melt over the course of a week.