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Late November when the PNA is positive the NAO negative and you are revisiting the Thanksgiving of yore you will know. FYI watch that full moon tide its as strong a current as it gets. If... we can stir up a beast Noreaster.....

Mean First 32° or Below in NYC: 1961-1990: November 11 1991-2020: November 20 2000-2025: November 21

November DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.8 3.2 3.1 4.5 1.6 0.1 1.8 1.1 3.1

October is finishing with a mean temperature of 59.1° (1.2° above normal) in New York City. That was also 2.2° above the earlier 1981-2010 baseline. Temperatures will rebound to the 60s tomorrow. Unseasonable warmth will continue through much of the first week of November. Dry conditions will likely persist until late next week. Some of the guidance suggests the potential for a 1.00" or greater rainfall next Thursday into Friday. Overall, the preponderance of seasonal guidance suggests that November will be warmer to much warmer than normal across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +5.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C. ENSO Region 3.4 breaks the all-time record most recently set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -4.97 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.945 today.

Both Delaware https://chescowx.com/raw-vs-ncei-delaware/ and New York State https://chescowx.com/raw-vs-ncei-new-york/ are now up and availabe with raw vs anomaly vs NCEI figures charts and trends.

November DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.6 1.7 2.1 3.1 0.9 1.6 1.6 2.8 0.4

And what does that translate in the states ? You need to study that

The growing season continues on.

You need to study Canada climo. Canada's plus 5 in Jan is still mid 20s Rea Point, NU at -23.4°C (-10.1°F) Calgary, AB: -2°C (28°F), freezing fog Edmonton, AB: -5°C (23°F

Don- Any chance you have a list of years and the first 32 or lower reading in the park? Would be interesting to see. Any trends on if it is getting later in the season over the last several decades? Thanks in advance if you have it.

I'm not forecasting above normal snowfall or below average temps for the season...just to be clear.

Hills are on fire with red oaks. Gorgeous

Well there has never been an el nino this strong, and never been such a warm 9 months in the conus. Also LaGuardia didnt dip below 32 in December 2015. So not at all unprecented.

WPC predicts heavy rain for western sections at 168 hr. balanced. The only possible support is GFS and ICON. What am I missing????

The color up this way is still pretty vivid in some spots but the leaves are quickly saying goodbye. On the whole this was the prettiest foliage I think I've witnessed in my time.

December is going to be a make or break month. If it's a torch then we're probably toast for the winter as a whole. If we can manage one or two events then it probably means we're setting us up for a solid winter and the pattern won't be as hostile. I'm going to set my expectations low and expect another 1997-98.

Squeal like a pig Kenny….

He’s not calling for a big winter . He’s got one decent month in Feb . And not so much for NYC

Jeff is near the moderate/severe border but I'm in moderate. However, the Sandy River is extremely low, meaning in the zero-to-5th percentile range. Carrabassett is in the same category.

Absolutely beautiful Fall colors this season around this area as well!

Does Will come out of hibernation tomorrow?

Just got back from Boston. It was gorgeous there. 40F with snow covered mountains here yikes