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Looks very mild overall for the entire US with the weekend chill sort of a blip in the warm pattern. The onshore flow and coastal low could blunt highs but should still be plenty warm.

Gfs and icon well west. Maybe time to track this?

I would RUN with that look.

useless outlook, as all winter outlooks are.

So the Euro actually is around avg for the important part but lose ground in April to show the negative anomaly Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

lol...don't look to me Mike. I'm just a weenie, not a trained met. I think it was Oct 2015. Woke up to beautiful blue skies that morning. There was a chance of severe storms later in the day, but it just didn't feel like a "severe day". Sure enough, I (central Montco) was under a tornado warning that afternoon. Hence my "we'll see".

It had a 34 kt radii the other day as a HU down to 30 nm. That's on par for the smallest 34 kt radii HUs in the Atlantic. 2004-2024 avg R34 35 nm or less Jeanne 28 nm 9/16/04 Humberto 26 nm 9/13/07 Michael 35 nm 9/5/12 Lee 30 nm 9/24/17 Beryl 25 nm 7/6/18 Isaac 30 nm 9/10/18 Oscar 35 nm 10/19/24 Only hurricane that comes to mind nearly as small in the EPAC is Kiko from Aug 1989 with a ~45 nm R34, and it was in the same area as Simon (VIS image attached). On Oct 10 at 15z, Simon's R34 was as large as 110 nm in one quadrant. The storm has gained about 6 degrees of latitude since it genesis. So how does a long-lived, intense TC that gained reasonable latitude shrink so much? I read that it proximity to the Mexico coast and the downslope from high elevation just inland was a factor, but many TCs parallel close to the Pacific Mexico coast, and we do not see this kind of reduction in size. Why was Simon different here? Normally, TCs grow in size w/ time from ERCs and latitude gain.

Not here. We grow with wind up . Whole cold shot basically went poof

Slight risk just to the west for tomorrow

Pretty much peak color in the Amherst Northampton area this week. I’ll take some photos later.

No CMC has had any storm close enough to the E coast to have much, if any, effect on the E coast. The Euro has had 2 with it (12Z yest and 0Z today) with interestingly all of the shorter runs in between (6Z/18Z), which go out far enough to tell, having no E coast storm. OTOH, the UKMET’s last 3 full runs have had it and the newest (6Z) suggests it would also have it based on the last map (hour 66). The first Icon with it any effect was yesterday’s 12Z with the 18Z at least a close call. The 0Z was by far the most ominous with it coming back W at the end. It also had it but then the 6Z had it further offshore though it’s hard to tell if it would have come back close enough to have much effect in the NE. I’m guessing no. It appears based on hour 162 that the 12Z Icon won’t have much effect on even the OV.

Or it could be both depending on one’s location, of course. The NC Outer Banks could have large effects with most of the rest of the SE being beautiful.

Not buying it?

If you look at what the euro did, it’s ridiculous at 500. It decides to move a 500 trough that was moving east and just dig it southwest. Thats just beer. A more likely scenario is a coastal low well offshore. That euro depiction was insane.

I think there was at least that in some spots up in the county if you look at the NOHRSC map,

It gets cancelled out if there’s multiple weeks of next to nothing following it. Remember what happened after late May?

Worried about a potential frost/freeze Sunday morning here. That would be slightly early as we usually get to very late October or sometimes even early November here. My peppers and pole lima beans are still producing heavily and will keep going until frost, so I'm hoping we avoid it Sunday morning. After this threat it's going to warm up and it will be quite awhile before we have another frost threat, so it might be worth it to cover the plants if it appears that the frost is gonna happen Sunday morning.

Sunday morning looks calm. Wind chills Saturday but temps in Low 50s. Meh.

Did you forget or ignore the 2-4” we had last weekend?

Deep freeze Sunday morning wind chills as well.

To be clear ... "already" does not = can't happen again. When I said that, it was purely in support of the poster's assertion and this year 'may have succeeded in the statistical suggestion already' - that is/was the context in fair reading... but I would caution anyway - seeing as no one else had mentioned this ... - there are very few or even no ensemble members as amplified or even tolerably similar to that Euro's D8+, 00z range - a range typically proven fantasy as an aside. Lack of support is also true outside of the EPS cluster, U.S. and Canadian punt. Having said that, since there is a climate suggestion for front side warm ENSOs somehow enhancing EC cyclogenesis, and this autumn ...definitely circumstantially applies, wisely it's not impossible. 200+ hours leaves time to modulate other guidance.

Can’t be 100% certain…this year systems want seem to want to hit us. So we’ll see.

Wind threat thus weekend seems to be below any advisories. 25-35 mph stuff.