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Tug is going to get buried alive in snow. Some of that epic Nino moisture may manage to get up there and it will be all snow there and tons of it! You better get ten Jebman Shovels and five top-shelf Snow blowers!

I'll be staying up on the Tug Hill in big snow country all winter. Let's hope it's wild up there this winter. I'm looking forward to some insane Jebwalks. I'm starting to see the flickering of lightning in the distance. It's coming!

It's not going to fall apart. It will pad your totals from earlier today. ALEET ALEET DMV REGION! THE RECORD EL NINO IS ALREADY RAVAGING THE MID ATLANTIC! CHECK OUT YOUR FAVORITE RADARS RIGHT NOW! GET YOUR RAIN CATCHING CONTAINERS OUT THERE! NO SLANT STICKING, NOW! This fall and winter, the DC Area will NOT be lame and boring no more. It will be rain after rain after rain after rain. I think your region could see 200 inches of rain by March 2027. A record east-based Nino has got Washington DC written all over it! This is a 6C Nino! It's going to roid up that STJ and it will show NO MERCY! BOTH Gulf of Mexico and Pacific moisture will get involved! At times, these moisture feeds will originate in the tropical Pacific! Both the Mid Atlantic and the Southeastern States will get drowned alive throughout the low sun season with absolutely NO MERCY at all! It starts NOW, and I am cheering this on with all my rain weenie heart! Even though Texas will be completely missed this time around (primarily because this particular Nino Event is so east-based) There is really no reason why I should not be happily cheering this event on over the Southeastern and Mid Atlantic States through July 2027! There is nothing better on earth, than rising water provoked by excessive rains on supersaturated ground!

Lol I just came to say this. I wonder if that wall of water will fall apart as it enters the lame and boring zone that is the DC area. If not. It's going to be a wet morning. Jebwalk time in a few hours.

ALEET ALEET MID ATLANTIC!! RECORD EL NINO STRIKES AGAIN AT 334AM VIRGINIA TIME! MORE STORMS ABOUT TO SMASH RIGHT INTO THE DMV IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT! Check out your radars right now! Torrential rains are incoming! Record EL NINO isn't on the way! For the DMV, it's already here!! And I am frackin' JEALOUS right now! My lawn is brown and crackly, and the El Nino is gonna miss Texas!

My windows are covered in moisture and I’m well north of the main risk areas. Feels juiced but I guess we’ll see

That is what I was saying the other day by the way. I think they see the ENSO forcing and go with it. They don't see some of the other stuff that obviously matters, so they miss anything that deviates from the stock forcing that ENSO gives you.

Radar indicated 4' already in and around that conglomerate of cells, and they're not done yet.

development has occurred. we'll see how it trends the remainder of the night and into the morning. the bigger issue may end up being upstream, actually. most guidance is doing a fairly bad job regarding the evolution of things across the dakotas and vicinity. most guidance suggested that mcs formation would come from supercells tracking across the dakotas this evening and tonight, paired with additional development as well. not only should that scenario already have been unfolding by now, but it seems to be out the window based on evolution in reality over the past few hours. if this big mcs is going to come to fruition, it'll have to be from an entirely different process than most guidance had shown.

Year 2 has lower correlation numbers, but is still generally mild

This is actually pretty wild looking.I mean, hopefully, everything's okay out there.We got cell starting to form within the conglomerate of anvils. This looks like an epic rain maker If i've ever seen one.

^Here's some much needed advice from the members of this sub^

I really don’t know what to say guys, trends are quite positive for the front range. Crawling back from a drought in the western states is exactly that, crawling. Anyways here is the QPF forecast thru Sunday. Euro is somewhat similar but about half of the amounts.

The latest 10 day mean of CFSv2 op runs for JFM is even colder than what had very briefly just become the coldest ever CFSv2 10 day JFM mean that I had ever seen, which I posted last night! It has KATL at -3C/-5.4F vs the 1991-2020 mean. That’s 44F. For reference: since 1980 only one JFM has been 45F or lower: 2010’s 43F!

Wow, fellas, awfully impressive, complexes of storms going up at this hour.

I think some or many of these WU stations are not installed in favorable areas of a property to get accurate readings for some attached individual instruments . I would not buy one because the only favorable area on my property is on top of my roof - and my roof climbing days ended years ago. Used to have a station there for 20 plus years until Labor Day 1998 - the day the Tornado ripped it off my roof along with my Chimney.

Toss it. No support.

Or on top of Mt Toby in W MA!

agreed - I also think SPC issued that Severe Watch Monday into NJ just to be safe rather than sorry . Looking further down the road if that Bermuda HP sticks around and gets into a favorable position for east coast tropical trouble - the ingredients are showing up in the Atlantic