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Yup.

EPS has us under the cool bubble

Just lost power with power lines down all over the county from a massive gust a few minutes ago

Gfs slightly better?

Thanks for the update snowman19

That 18Z NAM Solution would have southern MI immediately go from 60s with damaging winds to heavy freezing rain behind the line, brutal

Location still isn't bad at all.

Not everyday you get a CONUS wide mid-latitude trough break in the center of the country. Exceptional synoptics call for exceptional caution.

When I ponied up and upgraded my RadarScope to the Pro subscription this winter I forgot one of the features was archived radar data. So this is a really good example to try it out and review something. Basically, I’m not doubting the chances that this storm might have spun something weak up somewhere along the way but I think this posted screengrab of the CC labeled as a debris ball to prove a tornado on the ground is a bit of a stretch. So here’s the 606pm image that was shared, crosshairs placed on the “debris ball” One thing about debris ball signatures is the area of low CC values are usually co-located to an area of high DBZ reflectivity values, which this CC signature is not. They’re also typically associated with established, strong tornadoes (>EF2), which I’m not really seeing the support for on velocity data, or obs/local storm reports. Even though this passed thru a relatively sparse area, it did still cross US 22/322 during this period. There weren’t very many reports on this storm at all looking over the LSR’s. This signature likely had more to do with the hail core that this cell did have with it, which will reduce the CC values and can also cause a corridor of reduced values in the downstream direction of the radar beam when there’s a pretty decent hail core.. which can be seen on the images.

@CAPE @stormtrackerDFH 120 is being shipped out and hitting local shelves soon.

Quasi linear convective system with embedded rotations is the mode they keep throwing out although there is talks of more discrete development out ahead, even into Pennsylvania. I would indeed bet that some of those segments, and even the whole line could qualify ifor derecho status if the parameters should be realized.

All the usual disclaimers for the NAM at range but what an impressive looking front.

I wish there were more MN posters. I can only post so much on the weekdays with job and parenting duties. NAM has me nervous but I’m chalking it up to NAM doing NAM things. 8-24” is a comfortable range at this juncture.

Where ?

Was outside in a wide open field helping a student setup her research project... felt like I was back in North Dakota today! Fun times!

First time losing power in a while here it Arlington. Very windy

Yup. VA will be he most prone for those but definitely a chance here. We likely have the 80+ mph dry front crossings.

Oh, I still haven't heard it mentioned anywhere.It was just an observation of mine.

12z GFS ensembles now have -NAO from SSW +lag time The last few SSW's didn't have anything in the 3-4 week models (had +0.3-0.4 NAO), then trended for -NAO within the 2 week in the allotted lag time.

We rarely get good sustained southerly winds. It usually doesn’t mix down, but it has today. 53mph gust at DCA

With possible embedded rotations

18z ICON backed down to earth as expected.

Yes, extremely interesting. I also am hearing that an extremely potent jet streak it is expected to enhance convection and sheer from the middle Mississippi into the Ohio valley Sunday night into Monday . The last time I think any of us saw such robust nighttime convection this early in the season was 2011 and even that benchmark season waited until mid April to start it's nocturnal shenanigans. Apparently, the situation could be a lot more ominous had the last system not kicked the moisture.

I’m about 22” from my average at this spot since 2013. Certainly feasible but not guaranteed. If it happens, long duration cold plus best lake ice season since 2019 this winter could salvage a B-, otherwise it’s solidly in C category for this part of NNE