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  2. Stormlover74
    Yeah no tornado watch yet
  3. hooralph
    The way this thing is setting up it's gonna drop a lot of rain on the city to kick us off. Window-rattling thunder already on the UWS.
  4. canderson
    Seriously this thunder is wild
  5. NEG NAO
    thats the fast developing pop up storm i just mentioned
  6. Evie3
    Just got an emergency message (nixle) from my local municipal PD here in northern Somerset County about a tornado watch through tomorrow morning. Nothing from the NWS...I see the flash flood watch but I don't know where the reference to the tornado watch comes from...
  7. SnoSki14
    I see the flood threat but I don't see a severe threat. Think we get downgraded to slight. It's already almost noon with zero clearing to speak of.
  8. redsox91
    Lost power in Sparta
  9. weatherwiz
    I think our window for discrete may be smaller and probably would be timed closer to when the line arrives. Probably looking at 5-7 for discrete with the line rolling through shortly after. I think the overall progression of the warm front has slowed to what it was looking like yesterday. It will be some time before we can get in some sfc instability
  10. Stormlover74
    Another storm coming
  11. NEG NAO
    now we are having fast developing pop up storms one right over 287 and 78 junction in nj
  12. canderson
    From your N in PA. It had been years since we have had constant deep thunder like we have had all morning. Like @yoda asked I’m curious if all this here shoves south the hatch area.
  13. steve392
    Light rain but crazy amounts of thunder and lightning.
  14. Blizzard of 93
    I ended up with.56 of rain from this morning’s round.
  15. The Iceman
    With that main system going northeast of the city this morning, there should be a boundary set up right across SE PA and SNJ. Actually looking like one of the better non tropical tornado threats in a while. There’s going to ample instability in place for areas that miss the rain this morning which was my main concern going in. I’m debating going out to chase later if it develops how I think.
  16. WxUSAF
    Second heavy rain meso issued by WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0766 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1128 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 181528Z - 182128Z Summary...A couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected into late this afternoon. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas. Discussion...A thermal boundary extends through portions of the Mid-Atlantic States. Near the boundary, showers and thunderstorms are showing some slight backbuilding character while moving northeast into New York City. Precipitable water values are 1.4-2". MU CAPE is 500-5000 J/kg across the region, with the maximum on the Eastern Shore. Effective bulk shear is ~40 kts. One bout of heavy rainfall in the very near term is expected across southeast NY and portions of CT, while later development is expected to the southwest which should ride up the boundary back into the Tri-State area. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible either from backbuilding, cell training, or mesocyclone formation. This would be most problematic in urban areas.
  17. BoulderWX
    Picked up a little over an inch already and looks like another batch of moderate rain should be moving in from PA over the next couple of hours
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good analogy....Snowfall won't prevent a cutter, but it can delay/retard the warming perhaps even trigger the development of a triple point low, while the upper levels still flood with warmth. Difference here is the lower levels are most responsive to ENSO, and it's actually the upper levels that lag.
  19. snowman19
    The South American weather service updated yesterday, they kept the El Niño Costero (coastal), region 1+2 warning in effect, their disco says it’s very likely that a strong El Niño Costeto goes right into April, 2027 The well coupled El Niño standing wave is sticking out like a sore thumb And the TC parade has begun in the central, western and eastern PAC, with the most activity projected in the EPAC
  20. Maggie Valley Steve
    After another round of thunderstorms overnight, another chance today with rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour are possible.
  21. NEG NAO
    the wild card throughout the day is how the smoke will affect the daytime heating and instability - this is an odd setup
  22. LSC97wxnut
    Not sure which thread to put this in, but are the storms in New York all there is for today, or are those supposed to die off and we'll see more later?
  23. WxWatcher007
    Discrete this afternoon, the line this evening.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Their meadow tea is amazing.
  25. bluewave
    Flash flood threat NYC metro with this warm frontal training first round of convection. Some hail also beginning to show up. Tropical PWATS with this. Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0766 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1128 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 181528Z - 182128Z Summary...A couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected into late this afternoon. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas. Discussion...A thermal boundary extends through portions of the Mid-Atlantic States. Near the boundary, showers and thunderstorms are showing some slight backbuilding character while moving northeast into New York City. Precipitable water values are 1.4-2". MU CAPE is 500-5000 J/kg across the region, with the maximum on the Eastern Shore. Effective bulk shear is ~40 kts. One bout of heavy rainfall in the very near term is expected across southeast NY and portions of CT, while later development is expected to the southwest which should ride up the boundary back into the Tri-State area. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible either from backbuilding, cell training, or mesocyclone formation. This would be most problematic in urban areas.
  26. RockawayRowdies
    If this is the appetizer, can't wait for the entree
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