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  2. MJO812
    Yep we have to see if it continues to dip during the season. Thats what altered alot of forecasts last winter. The long range 0z Euro AI eps also shows the PV taking a big hit.
  3. dendrite
    JB is resorting to AI now to try and explain atmospheric physics?
  4. dendrite
    Another heavy frost. Min 31.8° So much for upper 30s.
  5. bluewave
    These strong Scandinavian-Ural blocks have become fairly common post 2007 with the record low Arctic sea ice state. We also saw this late October into early November SPV weakening and bounce back pattern in 2021 and 2022. But as always it’s the Pacific which has the final say.
  6. CoastalWx
    Boy do they ever Just pointing with their branches and laughing as I clean up the yard into December. and I thought we were done with the acorn disaster last year. Just as bad this year.
  7. SouthCoastMA
    Checked out a bog harvest the other day in Carver, in preparation for the upcoming snow this winter. cc @40/70 Benchmark
  8. donsutherland1
    Next time I'm at the NYBG, I'll check where the peace rose bush is. If I recall correctly, it's at the north side of the rose garden. The rose I photographed was near the center.
  9. wokeupthisam
    Yeah kidding aside, a lot of variability across the region and even locally depending on dominant types of trees. Besides duller foliage and acorn cleanup, the oaks love to hang onto their leaves and laugh at my yard cleanups. As @CoastalWx said, they're tough trees
  10. Chris78
    Yeah. It's a really bad look. Looks amateurish. The last 2 weeks has changed my opinion on Daniels. The coaching quality is probably bottom 3rd of the league. But the teams effort in the second half most likely Saved DQ for the remainder of the season. And apparently there's really no one to take over if he were to get fired in season with have 2 rookie coordinators.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely...QBO is somewhat different, but solar cycle is night-and-day.
  12. LakePaste25
    I don’t think this winter ends up anything like 97-98 except that we see lots of coastal storms. 97-98 had a favorable December and became progressively worse. This one looks more like the classic torch December followed by more back loaded chances.
  13. rclab
    Good morning Don. Perhaps the beautiful photo you posted is not the original Chicago Peace rose, I thought of. My mom was a rose aficionado. I planted a peace rose for her in the mid 60’s. Jackson and Perkins still sells them now as they did over 60 years ago. Thank you again Don. The photo helped me remember and I do try to ‘preserve my memories’ as always …. .
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's another thing....the "default to El Nino climo" works both ways.....often they verify too cold because of that, but if they can also miss key developments independent of ENSO that lead to more wintry periods.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's what happened last year, and although it recovered in the short-term thereafter, it predisposed the seasons to additional disruptions during mid winter.
  16. bluewave
    Beyond 15 days the weeklies have been defaulting to El Niño climatology. The forecast from the start of October illustrates this point. Hopefully, they start releasing the new bias corrected versions of the weeklies to the public so we can see how much skill they have compared to uncorrected version. Notice how more of a spilt low pattern between the Aleutians and California developed than the default to October El Niño climatology. New October 19 to 26 forecast Old forecast defaulted to October El Niño climatology
  17. mitchnick
    It does show a quick recovery, but stay tuned because 10 days ago this warming wasn't even showing up on the Euro. In fact, it showed a strengthening PV.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    First of all, the Kuroshio current off of Japan was much cooler in 1997, and I think that combined with the cooler waters west of Hawaii is really going to strengthen that jet and promote ridging at the higher latitudes in the northern Pacific. Secondly, 2023-2024 didn't have anything approaching the magnitude of the Scandinavian-ural block progged for later this month, and had strong MC forcing. I understand you are about as conservative as it gets with respect to long range winter forecasting, which is often a prudent course of action, but it's also important to consider both sides.
  19. RickinBaltimore
    The NFC East hasn't won a game in 2 weeks.
  20. GaWx
    Are you asking for the record relative trimonthly 3.4? Or the record relative weekly 3.4? Weekly record of relative 3.4 is +2.9 (12/29/1982) Trimonthly RONI record is +2.40 in DJF 1982-3.
  21. Brewbeer
    foliage has been relatively good here, and along 90 and 91; 495 out of Worcester was pretty good Sunday morning glad there aren't many oaks in the yard, they aren't particularly colorful and don't look as nice as the others in the fall, not to mention the acorns, which the squirrels and chipmunks take care of around here 36/35 dead calm and clear, chipmunks are chirping loudly this morning
  22. A-L-E-K
    outside brief post front cool shots, extended looks like endless mild weather
  23. mappy
    Dude. It’s so bad. How do you not keep track of downs? How does Daniels throw that ball away when he had an open receiver? And the last drive of the game??? What are we even doing. Jfc.
  24. olafminesaw
    Obviously Taiwan is used to heavy rainfall in the higher terrain on the East side of the island, but 20+40" of rainfall is going to cause some serious flooding I can only imagine.Also check out that rain shadow!
  25. MJO812
  26. roardog
    What’s the record RONI? I forgot now.
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