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Hot time of day there. They do 6pm here. Tonight is literally perfect for it. might even need a sweater lol. Only 72 right now.
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Can't get anyone to cover me tomorrow, so I'll be missing chasing this one, just as I missed last Thursday's event. Time for some reverse-jinxing to pull stuff north once again, to make it interesting locally.
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Yep. The Euro AI has been on it for the past couple days with the southern cutoff as per usual
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Moving a little more exponential the last few days Subsurface looks really healthy right now Let's see if the seasonal decadal trend of a ridge in the Rockies/SW gets suppressed this July -
Of course for mine, it is Thursday at 4pm. Maybe it can work...
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South and east I think / hope Bloomington/ Watseka/ Rensselaer/Knox
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Does anyone have any good examples of when the warm front has advanced far north in just a few hours i.e. low central IL to far N IL? It feels like more often than not models will suggest this can happen but often it just stalls or barely retreats north.
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def looks like an event that could pay a visit the backyard of many of our regulars
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mappy replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Thank you! I saw in the article they were still assessing in York County, I’ll be curious what they say for that assessment -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Typhoon Tip replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Seemin' like y'all tryin to will a super phat dope ass nuclear nino - Today
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SREF is a garbage model, but a noticable bump Northeast in CAPE at 15z and overall trend, so could see NAM show a little better overlap of instability and shear north. Still going to be a Nowcast tomorrow morning to see how fast the morning storms clear out.
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Maybe can score a short “chase” again.
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RIP king james
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We are still in a dry pattern
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System is trending south. Looks like piedmont areas get little to nothing once again. We are hanging on by a thread here in the foothills thanks to recent rain but the water table is still quite low.
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Rensselaer would be a good spot to sit and wait IMO
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Itstrainingtime replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I wanted to make sure that you saw this: (same cell you were watching in York County) https://www.wgal.com/article/pa-ef-1-tornado-confirmed-lancaster-county-nws/71603879 -
Drive 12 hours in any direction on land and you're still 90 or better
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Is that the MD heights trail? If so, did you park on the Va side and have to schlep over to the trailhead? I used to be able to park on the Md side in little nooks when I had my Jeep, but last time I went they had that general area closed off for parking.
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The AFD for Chicago is pretty ominous for tomorrow: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOT&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
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12z CIPS guidance is a bit more enthusiastic. One analog that has been persistently showing up in some of the domains on CIPS is 6/21/21
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That was a different (I believe 4 hour) product than the 24-hour aggregate being shared widely.
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It's a damn shame the Big Boy steam engine isn't coming back west through Harpers Ferry. That would've been an EPIC shot coming out of the tunnel and going over the Potomac.
