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The Mets have already been eliminated from the 2026 post-season

A more optimistic takeaway would be a lot of opportunities from the medium range to the extended. 24th/26th/28th all close and still room for the 18th/19th.

lol. Now watch one of these synch up w/ SS and give us a nice event. Tell me without telling me that it cant happen?

Just give up. Almost time for the Mets to have another disappointing season.

I'm at like 5%

Had to go back through my posts during that time:

I remember that big 1/7 storm. And the 1/11 pattern change (didn't happen, we're still above average temps today, but the cool down is coming on 14th-15th), and the 1/16 storm. Models always rush a pattern change (whether good or bad). But yeah what was supposed to be a good january is now reduced to the back half of the month. Like I said earlier though, if we can get a turnaround like late Jan 2021, late Jan 2015 (which was nearly snowless until that epic pattern change), Feb 2013, or Feb 2006, we'll be in good shape. But that's a very tall ask.

I think we have to test a classic nino to see if this is the case. I am of the PSU school of thought where I think we are trending towards bad but our past decade is still abnormally horrific. That said, if we get a real nino and see storm after storm of mid 30s with a limited snow sector to the northwest it’s probably wraps.

As we all know I am an extreme wx junkie. I want to maximize everything. Dews, snows, wind , heat , cold , damage. It literally dictates a significant part of my psyche and my life . Weather boredom absolutely kills me

Do we need to issue a road brine watch for the some of our areas?

I mean Carver just posted the GEM 12z that dumps 5-10 inches of high ratio snow across a big chunk of the area. We might not get any snow but its depicted on several models within 7 days.

After MU said on Friday he would issue a special storm outlook tomorrow, today he said this: Tell me the models have been terrible & overamplified with nearly every system in recent weeks/months without telling me. Why haven't I posted about the "potential big storm?" It's simple. With no high-latitude blocking or a 50/50 low, I never saw any potential to begin with.

Tantalizing…. We are so so close to a big dog

Considering Florida is completely gone from the map maybe this is a post climate change hell world. That said, fuck generative ai, we need our brains more than ever.

Pretty crappy gfs run overall. I hope the Esembles show some hope....

I prefer 8->1/2/3 for the MJO, but's just me. I think tropical forcing has the best influence when it goes through 8 and makes a full tour through 1/2/3. I don't think we've seen it do that in a looonngg time. Looks to me like it is about to blow its load in the west Pac and crash again.

I think we need to resolve this cluster-**** before we can even begin to resolve the evolution of our potential Sunday system

NE weenie alert is all in on 360hr 2m temps

Lol it just sucks.. even here we're only at 50 percent cover or so.

Who doesn't love it when the NAO enters the middle of the country and disrupts the fried eggs coming out of the gulf?

Also go back to smooth jazz and rough graphics local on the 8s. Trends today 06/12Z point to mainly Plateau and Mountains Wednesday night. Weekend could feature more flurries are even snow showers Valley floor in Eastern Tennessee. Maybe even the Nashville area? Clearly the beefy GFS runs a couple days ago caved to the Euro type solutions. Still gives a chance of flurries in the air over the weekend. A good short-wave within cyclonic flow aloft could put down a dusting in the Valley. Otherwise more Plateau and Mountains. Mid-Atlantic and Southern Appalachian ski areas look for another good MLK Weekend.

Was going to start posting these at the New Year, but slipped my mind. This date in weather history in MN January 1 2003: On this date there is an inch or less of snow on the ground from Duluth to the Iowa border. In the Twin Cities there isn't even a dirty snowbank to be found. 1997: Freezing rain causes numerous accidents along the North Shore. In Lake County, vehicles could not get up hills and were blocking roads. Highway 61 was closed for several hours from Two Harbors to Silver Bay. 1864: Extremely cold air moves into Minnesota. The Twin Cities have a high of 25 degrees below zero. January 2 1941: Grand Portage gets over 4.5 inches of precipitation in 24 hours. That's roughly how much normally falls there during the 'winter' months from November to February. January 3 1981: Arctic air visits Minnesota. Embarrass, Wannaska, and Tower all hit 38 below zero. 1977: 14.2 inches of snow falls in Mankato. January 4 1981: Air cold enough to freeze a mercury thermometer pours into Minnesota. Tower hits 45 below zero. 1971: A snowstorm moves through the Upper Midwest. Winona gets over 14 inches. January 5 2012: Record warmth is felt across the state. Many locations in western Minnesota soared over 50 degrees, with temperatures reaching the 60s at Marshall, Canby, and Madison. This was the first record of any 60 degree temperatures in Minnesota during the first week of January. January 6 1942: The temperature rises from 32 below zero to 41 above in 24 hours in Pipestone. January 7 2003: Record warmth develops over Minnesota. Many places reached the 50s, including the Twin Cities. St. James hit 59 and the Twin Cities reached 51. Nine golf courses were open in the Twin Cities and 100 golfers were already at the Sundance Golf Course in Maple Grove in the morning. 1873: A storm named the 'Great Blizzard' hits Minnesota. This three-day blizzard caused extreme hardship for pioneers from out east who were not used to the cold and snow. Visibility was down to three feet. Cows suffocated in the deep drifts and trains were stuck for days. More than 70 people died, and some bodies were not found until spring. Weather conditions before the storm were mild, just like the Armistice Day storm. January 8 1902: A January Thaw occurs across Minnesota. The Twin Cities experience a high of 46 degrees. January 9 1982: Both January 9th and 10th would have some of the coldest windchills ever seen in Minnesota. Temperatures of -30 and winds of 40 mph were reported in Northern Minnesota. This would translate to windchills of -71 with the new windchill formula, and -100 with the old formula. 1934: A sleet and ice storm hits southwest Minnesota. Hardest hit locations were Slayton, Tracy and Pipestone. The thickest ice was just east of Pipestone with ice measuring 6 to 8 inches in diameter. At Holland in Pipestone County three strands of #6 wire measured 4.5 inches in diameter and weighed 33 ounces per foot. The ice was described as: 'Very peculiar information being practically round on three sides, the lower side being ragged projectiles like icicles: in other words pointed. The frost and ice were wet, not flaky like frost usually is. In handling this, it could be squeezed into a ball and did not crumble.' January 10 1990: A January 'heat wave' forms. MSP Airport warms to 49 degrees. 1975: The 'Blizzard of the Century' begins. Also called the 'Super Bowl Blizzard,' it was one of the worst blizzards ever. The pressure hit a low of 28.62. This was the record until 1998. January 11 1975: A blizzard continues with hurricane force winds in southwestern Minnesota. 1899: An odd flash of lightning lights the clouds up around 9 pm at Maple Plain. January 12 2000: Snow falls in a narrow band over the Twin Cities. Maplewood receives 5.5 inches, while Chanhassen gets 12. 1888: The infamous 'Blizzard of '88' occurs. It hit during a mild day when many children were heading home from school. They made up the majority of the 200 people that died. At the end of the storm the thermometer at St. Paul read -37.

Euro run will be interesting. Does it favor one look over the other or will it have its own island real estate as well?

Both are good for different reasons but the key being they’re hilariously different at h5 with how they handle the energy (gfs and Ukie)

Very cold & no snow just stinks worse than a skunk. GaWx gave an update on the possible MJO phase going into February. Could be phase 1/2/3 which would back the Weeklies warmer February. Luckily the LR forecasts have been horrible. Can we go back to 5 day forecasts? Lol.