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We are not going to really feel the coming El Nino until Oct. - Jan This period will almost certainly be wetter than normal. Other stuff is a crapshoot,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Last year March - October was all +AO monthly, 8/8 months. It looks like this March - June will be starting off +AO, 4/4 months.

Tomorrow will be unseasonably cool with highs only in the middle and perhaps upper 60s. Temperatures will return to the middle 70s on Sunday. The first week of June could also see temperatures average somewhat below normal to near noraml. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.83°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -33.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.130 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.3° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

New York Post posted an article about Mt. Rainier possibly erupting: https://nypost.com/2026/05/29/science/most-dangerous-us-volcano-mt-rainier-could-devastate-60000-residents/ This is probably the only thing that can prevent another temperature jump from this upcoming el nino. Remember that Pinatubo erupted in mid-June 1991, ahead of a robust el nino.

I'm wondering if TAO/Triton will pop a +8c in the subsurface in the next few days, as it continues to warm. It's really taking on a Strong east-based dominance.

@LakePaste25 This is what you were talking about the other day with true, classic low frequency El Niño forcing (standing wave) setting up and sinking/subsidence over the IO and Indonesia for a change….

Hrrr violent. Nam meh.

I really appreciate your information. It reveals my expectations....................... There is a slow "catch up " time and even then a reluctance to downgrade drought..

Here you go guys June El Nino analogs

I swear I have a force field around my house. I just had rain and thunderstorm activity within 3 miles to my north, south, east and west. And didn't get any measurable rain.

Lots of confusion

Still doesn't seem like a wet pattern. I'm sure El Nino will give us a boost, but in the long run we may go drier.

Pretty interesting watching this thing drop SSE from Hudson's Bay.

hm the only thing notable so far about this entry into summer ( anyway) is that utter nondescript characteristic to the pattern. the modelling has almost nothing really fitting a known mode - it's just a mottled mess of irregularly spaced wave features from S of Alaska to the Atlantic at least for the next 2 weeks, it'd be difficult to predictively assess the temperature anomaly distribution

almost looks like this thing's truckin' along faster than guidance. geesh, we're dry slotting here by 10 pm

The trash cans are happy they get to fly in the wind tomorrow thanks to the holiday delay

I also spoke to Louis Uccellini recently, and he also said that they are working on it. No ETA. He got really animated about it though, so it should be good!

If all 31 days were average it would be a warm month in Tolland

Lol…so if we took out the 5 warmest it would be a cool month. And If we took out the 5 coolest it would be a warm month….good thing we had both the extremes to make it pretty close to average.

As the saying goes …the extremes are what make up the averages.

I’ll take the over there tomorrow morning

If you took the five warmest and the five coolest and averaged. It would be a pretty average month.

Not sure what they’re using for normals since ORE wasn’t operational until summer of 96.