All Activity

heh... I know your kidding but, both those are a reflection of what I am seeing in the modes and possible reasons for the moods, going on in the people around me? yet you've made them about me. HAHAHA.

Nothing remarkable so far...

5”+ inches of snow with the thump then we sleet. That’s where we’re rolling. Better than rain

12z AIFS crushes and continues to hint at lingering coastal through Monday evening

snowfall maps at this range are a waste of time and can be dangerous - think about it...........

is it?

Looking at the 12z Euro-AI vs 6z Euro-AI out to 18z Sunday, the 1" snow threshold shifted southeast by an entire county, at least in middle.

1/22 12z Euro AI AIFS total QPF storm Total Snow / Sleet (10:1)

I think the 12z Euro is gonna make us lol a bit if the AI is an indicator which to my understanding it fundamentally is

Like stated doesn’t appear to be the most likely scenario

Noon TV guesses (I guess for snow) for the immediate DC metro area: Channel 7: 8"-12"as low as Channel 9: 8"-12" The last NWS maps I saw were 9" expected, 10% less than 3", 10% more than 11" (I don't think that adds in the slop)

Albany is always the crayon chewer of the bunch what else is new Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Actually it's warmer than the GGEM, pushes the 850 about 20 miles further NW than the GGEM.

they went with WWA for NE Alabama.. Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN- Including the cities of Town Creek, Arab, Athens, Cullman, Boaz, Lynchburg, Estill Springs, Fayetteville, Sewanee, Decherd, Scottsboro, Moulton, Guntersville, Winchester, Fort Payne, Huntsville, Cowan, Rainsville, Decatur, and Albertville 1104 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between 0.05-0.10 inches. * WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northwest Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

12 Euro AIFS isn't too different from the 00z run. Maybe just a hair farther north with highest snow precip amounts.

We don’t wanna be in the bullseye until three days before the event

Also of interest: the impressive cold snap modeled. Record for BOS for consecutive days AOB 32: 16 ending 2/3/1961, 2/2/1918 15 ending 2/20/2015, 1/15/1970 14 ending 12/30/1989, 2/5/1905, 2/10/1901 13 ending 1/7/2018, 1/28/2005, 12/23/1963, 1/23/1893, 2/5/1881 Verbatim the 06Z and 12Z GFS keeps BOS below freezing until 2/6, which is 14 days if tomorrow doesn't crack 32°. The 00Z Euro only gets warmer because it tracks a bomb a bit inland. With a bunch of SN this is freeze the river solid weather, and probably gets to the point of disrupting ferries and shipping in the harbor. And the core of the PV settles over BNA, GFS has it going well below zero there later this week.

AIFS is not a disaster...but over the last 24 hours it went from being one of the best solutions to now maybe the worst at 12z. Its 8-9" for DC and Baltimore...about 10" up here. Jack zone shifted quite a bit to our NW. Looks similar to GGEM with track and thermals

One of the luxuries of having a crazy frigid antecedent airmass is small moves don’t really change anything all that much. We can handle some decent wiggle room with these temp profiles.

Once you’re out. You can’t come back in. Bust potential on these 48 hours out is the reverse.

are they riding the ICON and GFS?? if so Chattanooga would get a good coating of ice

That looks familiar.

AI a touch slower with onset. Comes in hard. Rough guessing 12 hours of snow before the flip. Pretty heavy sleet after that.

Yes, Chuck, I’ve been following NG make this historically sharp upward move this entire week. For those who don’t follow NG closely, why is this happening? It’s 100% related to what something we closely follow ITT: E US temps. Look no further than this absolutely insane comparison of GEFS US pop weighted HDD for Jan 22-29th on the Jan 14th 12Z run vs the 0Z Jan 22nd run. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen anything more extreme than this amazing colder change over just a 7.5 day elapsed period: Jan 14th 12Z run (purple on right) 1/22-29 US pop wted HDD: 26+23+24+27+26+25+25+23=199 or 25/day (near the green line, which straddles the normal of 25/day): Jan 22nd 0Z run (purple on right) 1/22-29 US pop wted HDD: 24+31+37+37+39+37+34+36=275 or 34/day (MA normal)!

Long Island is getting way more than 4 inches