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That would be nice. Certainly enough time to where that is plausible...that could be wishful thinking it just goes to show it wouldn't take much. That shortwave digging into the northern Plains there may be inhibiting such a scenario?

John, I wasn't debating anything or pushing back against CC...I was merely pointing out that. That said, we have both agreed the current snow-drought isn't purely a product of CC. It's making it worse, I'm sure.

The intent was Nasty.

Careful, I mentioned something along this line yesterday and we got 2 pages doom and gloom!

GEFS still looks interesting for that window, although the boundary probably is a tad further north than we want verbatim.

-PNA still showing up some in the long range. Trend has been for the cold to be overdone in the NW this year though. We'll see.

you forgot to show him this part where it shows no chance for a storm

Why don't you mention that it is a total turn around from the 0Z run and too far out for an OP run to even consider . There also should be a rule around here that if you post a model run analysis you must post graphics

I'd like to get that vort tube's trajectory off the NJ coast as opposed to LI ... If so that would be a NJ bomb model low... Like 1987 November, but a cold profile.

12z euro continuing the same idea with some more classic looking western troughing and h5 looks in fantasy range

Cold periods during Nina's are pretty much the Carolina Coastal Plain's time to shine.

Fringed

Mostly trolling JI but I do think the 23-25th part may be too early, which is where I somewhat seriously staked my claim earlier. Was hoping for a 2016 10th anniversary storm.

so, where’s this east coast pattern some of you were whining about?

Certainly something to watch, obviously verbatim as Will said too late for most but that is a nice stream of vorticity so just have to hope we can get a vort max to kind of take the lead early enough. Curious to see what the EPS will look like

yeah, I'm not sure temperature's a very good proxy for driving any conclusions. Particularly, if we just step back and look a this ... I'd really suggest we are idiosyncratically warm relative to the pattern. It should be colder than has been, in simple terms. Could be caused by changing circulations and ambient thermal states of the planet ... both of which are concomitant with CC (LOL). - something is altering these states of the planet, and it is a planetary scope and scaled observation ... so that screams for a common denominator. CC being a homogeneous state is a common denominator so if the shoe fits - sorry. You know, as an aside, I think a lot of the problems people have with CC isn't the Climate part. It's that everyone and the current zeitgeist is wrongly blaming everything on climate. Change is culprit. I'd argue it is a change that doesn't appeal enough to the physical senses, nor trigger inconvenience enough but different discussion. Change is just a measure of status from before, versus now. When comparing status from 1990, to status today, utilizing the exact same method for both, a change in status is academically proven: cooler then, warmer now. Now, if people had a fucking clue how that change can and does mechanically effect circulation modes, which are ...duh duh dunnn, thus moving around a warmer atmosphere ... there probably would be a lot less of this ridiculous debate This lunacy in reticence.

I liked the 23-28 window, and I thought you concurred. Its an op run, but that ridge is transient, then we end up with this-

i think its the 25-37th window. 23rd might be to early to get moisture and cold together

the EURO AI looks nothing like the euro parent...and its been way better this season anyway. 12z euro AI looked tasty

Agreed. I feel moderately secure in the temp department, which is more often the bane for our tracking pleasures. Drought is the fly in the ointment as has been pointed out. Just give me some moisture fetch somewhere and I'll take my chances on high ratios...or if my locale can't score, cook up some 3-6" action up on the plateau and I'll take the fam to Monterey. Seriously, just give us some flakes, Mother Nature. My kids literally asked me this morning if I could ask Siri for some snow. I cried a little inside. I so wish it was that easy.

My poor 23rd-26th window isn't looking so hot at this range. Disappointing

Might as well root for the SER. Clearly not having it hasn't improved our snow chances. Maybe it can pump some Gulf moisture and time that with a cold shot to actually give us a storm.

Yes...but around this time of winter in a nina when you get to the end of Jan and head into Feb, a SE ridge would be a typical occurrence in a nina (and the cold we've had so far on the front end is also typival) Now it doesn't have to mean anything, of course...but it is something to keep an eye on.

This is just 100% incorrect.