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Hard to feel good about the trade off imby coming off a 14.1" snow season (RFD).

Good stuff everyone. I always learn something from a visit to this region of the forum.

From the video i have seen the lightning was mind-blowing. They also spoke about a possible microburst. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

It’s better to be realistic about the model errors beyond 10 to 15 days and the frequent repeating patterns. I get it that many on here like cold and snowy weather. But you want to see the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks shift in order to be more optimistic about our snowfall prospects.

The eff you mean “getting” dude you been here damn near 25 years youre old.

The first week of December was never on the table

Weather models have improved a lot in 20 years. We have data to prove it.

Fair enough. However, the example you were using was displaying basically the textbook la nina phase 7 response. We'll see how it goes. Another thing for consideration. The waters in that area of the globe have cooled significantly since last year. First image below is the difference between now vs 1 year ago. Enough so, that it's mostly near normal now in the equatorial band (10N-10S). With a non insignificant area having below normal temps even for a change (2nd image). A sight for sore eyes. So perhaps that factor can be muted this time.

you are just full of surprises

The one constant every December since 2011 from Philly to NYC Metro has been at least one 55°+ warm up between December 17th to 25th even when the long range models forecasts were cold like last year.

Exactly. 2014 and 2015 had a dominant +NAO and we were cold and very Snowy. +TNH and PNA along with a parade of Systems continually riding up into Eastern Canada that kept pulling the cross polar flow southward instead of it typically getting pulled under the +NAO and into the NATL.

Another bad post

Yeah. The Baja Cutoff is the Issue. If upstream blocking, 50-50 and -NAO were in place we could benefit from it as waves or impulses would travel eatestd from that Baja LP. But, as you alluded to that's not the Case.

I think the pattern finally starts to turn significantly colder/stormier towards the end of the month into early December. Model ensembles are pretty strongly hinting at this. You're definitely right that a lot of heat/dry records have been set in recent years, but...let's not be too prisoner of the moment. - Denver's driest year was way back in 1954 - Hottest temp of 105 was first recorded in the late 1800s and was tied in 2005 and 2012 but has not been touched since - Boulder's snowiest winter on record was 2019-20 - Denver's warmest year on record was 1981 So it could be worse. Also, there have been some impressive winter cold waves in the past decade or so. - two separate very cold waves in Feb 2025, the second which delivered a 12/-7 day on 2/19, about as cold as it gets that late in the season (though topped by an even more impressive event below) - DEN fell to -19 in the Jan 2024 cold wave. That was the coldest Jan temp since 1984. - Dec 2022 featured a -6/-24 day. That was the coldest max temp since 1990, the third coldest on record (-9 is coldest), and the low was one degree off the coldest temp recorded in the airport era (-25) - That was followed by a top tier blast in late Feb 2023, featuring a 7/-11 day at DEN on 2/23. The -11 broke the daily record by 11 degrees, and was the second latest a temp that cold had ever occurred - Feb 2021, another record-breaking cold wave. On Valentine's Day, DEN was 1/-14. That was followed by a low of -16 the next morning. The high was the coldest that late since 1962, and same for the low of -16.

can you post some ensembles to back up your point? or just anything, really

Don’t worry, you get used to it. more about the seasons vs specific days ie warm spring vs dry and warm winter

Latest Euro Weeklies for the period just beyond D15 on based on the 0z ens run. The progression of anomalous h5 heights into the NAO domain is more impressive than the previous run.

It's just pure hopium at this point. I don't see anything to be positive about. SE ridge looks pretty dominant and cold dumps west with troughing So cold/dry to warm/wet and vice versa will be the theme. Same storm tracks we've been seeing for years now

SSWs or wave reflection events don’t automatically mean cold and wintry conditions around our area. Plus the sample size of December SSW events since the late 80s is very small at only three years during La Nina’s .Those three didn’t really do much for us. Hopefully, we can see some improvement over those limited past early cases. Even if the RMMs eventually make it into phase 8, the VP charts still have convection lingering near the Maritime Continent. Doesn’t take much convection there in concert with the gradient between Siberia and the mid latitude WPAC warm poll to enhance the Pacific Jet. The faster Pacific Jet has resulted in the dominant Great Lakes cutter, l-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks since 2018-2019 when the mid-latitude WPAC Pacific became warm. So when we have had troughs in the East during recent years, they usually got pulled in behind a departing Great Lakes cutters or hugger tracks. Then we went cold and dry for a while the Southern Stream got suppressed. Then the Southeast ridge has usually rebounded with more cutters and huggers.

Hays County where I reside, been dropped from the flood watch. It's done. We transition to the Pacific air mass with little to no rain as the central Texan Gobi Desert continues to develop unopposed by significant precip amid the Nina. I knew it all along. Texas is transitioning to a much drier climate even as millions of legal people rapidly move in as more and more businesses come to Austin. One day very soon, WATER will be nearly as expensive as GOLD down here. 1) Wells dry up. 2) No water at all. 3) Water has to be paid for and Austin is already using up the Colorado River so water will need to be piped in from the Pac Northwest. It's gonnabe PRICEY. 4) Wealthy folks will move out, to moister places like New Orleans. I'd love that place, rain all the time and one hell of a nightlife, I'd do things that'd make RavensRule blush with total embarrassment! I am most assuredly, NOT conservative no more! I am going to do stuff in late life that will make Solomon of old's late life look like one of Billy Graham's sons.

Tell me what you think about your situation Complication, aggravation Is getting to you The Sunshine scares the daylights out of me.

There are no absolutes, definites or guarantees in weather. You, me or anyone else can’t guarantee MJO phase 8, a SSW or that December is going to be cold on November 20th. If I made a post like that saying it’s going to be warm you would have jumped all over me

Weird. Looks fine on Twitch but not when embedded. Grrr

I must be getting old I can't remember what happened here lol

White Christmas here last year. First in a long time.