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Nice to wake up to a 0.2" coating this morning, our first coating of the season here.

Just a little further south.

Good post from @Bob Chill Upper air pattern is pretty potent with the neg nao breaking down but no sign of a big storm trigger yet. Just looking at the indices makes you think an Archambault type event is I the cards but the northern stream is so busy that it's running interference on itself lol. Something compact but potent n the NS could pop imho. Blocking is quite strong over the next 5 days then things unwind for a bit. Interesting and complex period on tap. Not really a setup that "locks into" anything so it would be a mistake to marry anything in the mid/long ranges

Thank you and it is on the High Bridge Trail which was an old rail line converted for walking/hiking etc. This bridge is over the Appomattox River a few miles outside the actual town.

Reviewing my event snowfall forecast and I think I did pretty well. Only real miss was underestimating how far east the northern extent of the 2-4 would reach as it ended up getting close to Cville itself.

That was underwhelming. Bright banding. Was just snizzle.

12z Euro is trying for Friday am as well

Cloudy and 26 currently in Wolf. Not sure that we'll reach 30 today. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Ah, I've considered if its worth upgrading to that one. I didn't know Farmville had a bridge like that but its only an hour and a half from where I'm at currently so next event I might need to make the trek down there. Once again though those pictures are just amazing.

Thank you! I used a DJI Mavic 3 Classic. I agree that is probably the one that came out best. It is actually why I chose Farmville specifically.

Yep the cold hammer is coming down next weekend..

Plenty of extinct clippers on the guidance. If one digs enough we can get a light event.

Euro has our 12-13 event….not Big but not nothing

Ensembles are going Zonal in the long range,not a warm look but its not cold either,very little QPFS,probably the only hope would be a bowling ball if it could manifest any cold with it I'm starting to wonder if the CFS is more right with the RMM'S,its been showing it going into WP the last several days,now its showing another Kelvin,Rossby into the WP towards the end of the year and crapping out there,we'll see if it keeps showing this.

add the GGEM's 12z improvement.. what leaps out is the extreme general thickness ( hydrostatic hgts) gradient along which this paltry ( for now...) looking low is riding along. The flow is having trouble "kinking" in time... ad nauseam, because of the faster than normal basal velocity. But this elucidates the high potential should that correct just pubes more so... you'd wind up a rapid deepener, albeit progressive - but who's judging when begging. Just gotta bend the flow in time and BOOM

I mentioned this yesterday in a post. The orientation of that WPO block is somewhat flattening the PNA ridge. The other primary feature of influence is the southward displaced TPV lobe.

Doesn’t matter what any of us think-it’s what the pattern supports and how any storm evolves. Hopefully we can get an outcome where the S/W can dig and amplify close SE of us and there’s some blocking, so any high pressure isn’t booted east, and the storm will develop offshore and keep winds out of the north. We’ve seen that fast zonal flow either brings what we saw yesterday with suppression, or inland tracks/unfavorable lead up to the storm like early in the week. Could we see a good outcome on 12/13 or later in the month? Definitely and I hope so, but we need pretty significant mid latitude pattern changes to what we have now. Those are just facts and it doesn’t matter much whether the MJO is officially Phase 8 or whatever when other factors override it.

There's the grinch we all know and love.

Cross polar flow is showing up though…I think we’re always programmed to think this is a good thing in the south but I can’t disagree more. This is likely going to be way too much of a good thing. Pipe bursting cold and snow are usually not synonymous.

Presumably the tracked component began on Oct 27 and its motion is prograde at low latitudes so the closer it gets to the center of the circle, the closer to the equator it has tracked. The current location is where the red portion of the track begins (on Dec 5 as posted). The labels around the outside of the graph show that the frame of reference is as follows ... left is around 60 deg W longitude (tropical N Atlantic near Trinidad), bottom is around 30 deg east (east Africa), right is 120 deg E (w Indonesia) and the top of the square is 150 W (south of Hawaii). The component being tracked (almost always a generally prograde motion from west to east, you can see one brief retrograde period labelled early Nov) is anomalous tropical convection. The MJO assumption is that this will anchor the dynamics of the higher latitude ridge-trough pattern that drives the jet stream in the mid-latitudes. So to sum up, the diagram tracks the motion of this forcing over about two months with 45 past days and 15 future days projected. In this case the feature has crossed the equatorial Pacific and moved across at least part of central America where it has begun to drift closer to the equator. It is progged to continue that motion for 2-3 days and then slowly reverse back towards the subtropics. There is no longer-range projection shown but one could assume the later December into January track would take it across Africa into the Indian Ocean. But I don't follow it myself, just aware of what others think it may mean to long-range prospects. Because it's not my main focus I may have some of these details wrong, so perhaps somebody more familiar with the diagram can set us straight. I think the phrase Maritime Continent is a reference to the many islands of Indonesia and the Philippines as well as Australia and New Zealand in general terms. What I would not swear to is that the diagram is meant to convey equal differentials of longitude, it may be somewhat schematic on that, and the scale of the latitude range is not really clear but I assume the circle is the tropic of Cancer and the center of the diagram is the equator. It would probably be rare for the tracked component to get to any latitude much greater than 25 N.

lol @WxUSAF Norrisville slant sticker at it again

If we continue to tick that trough further west next weekend, we likely have a shot with the northern energy digging more.

WGAL just showed the Euro. Sign me up.