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GSP mentioned Winter Weather Advisory coming either later this afternoon or tomorrow morning for all of the Mountain areas including the SW Mountains for tomorrow night. Looks like snow changing to freezing rain event. They are also mentioning the next event would be Thursday night into Friday with snow likely for all areas including Asheville/Hendersonville before changing to sleet/freezing rain. The upcoming medium range continues to advertise a fast progressive pattern with moisture every day or two into next week.

Yes you will

Its the furthest east of all guidance, I'm not sure what to make of that as i didn't follow how it has been this summer and only going on how it was last winter and it was off a bit then too.

TEMP _________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.3 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.1 SNOW _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD ____DTW ___ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 10.0" 20.0" 40.0" 37.5" 45.0" 92.0" 40.0" 6.5" 80.0"

Gfs is a toaster here. Looked a bit worse than 6z

32.4° -SN has begun

Is tomorrow’s system thread worthy or nah?

Its all about the banding whether we bust high or not. Regardless "we should" see our first real snow accumulation for the season.

Well storm starts developing in about 24hrs so pretty much should know an outcome by tonight. If models can’t get a storm right 36hrs out well then I ain’t going to waste my time on them the rest of the winter lol

I mean the euro op has to come NW at this point…right?

Agreed

It was more consolidated and tracked over 41/69 at 983mb.

I stand corrected....WB 12Z RDPS

That step down process really worked for us last year.. we got nailed before the gulf coast got theirs.. oh wait

That double lobe thing mostly gone, with the primary low moving NE off Delmarva and deepening. Nice looking run.

More in line with Rgem outcome now. And more matches nws forecast.

Pretty good consensus on somewhere in Middlesex or Worcester County, north of the mix line, is where the best chances are at a jackpot.

Nam isn't, but Rgem is, though not as good as Gfs. Still, like I posted earlier, I would like to see the Nam and icon come for the ride.

Looked pretty similar to the 06z run

That’s not correct. Rgem is and hrrr at hour 48 12z was heading towards a snow solution.

Bit of a step back. Just don't want it to be the start of a trend.

The red flag, however, is not one mesoscale model is forecasting snow.

How about temperature profile?

Moderate sleet falling here now and 35. What a wonderful wintry morning after a period of non-accumulating light snow earlier. Looking forward to work-related scheduling headaches Tuesday!

WB 12Z GFS basically the same, a tick warmer, but if you are looking for a 1-3 inch event you are still in the game.