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Am I the only one worried about a dry slot here If the L moves directly over to west of Chicago?

Has the euro been known lately for being too amped cause it's drastically stronger than most models with the slp. Usually the gfs is on the stronger side...

I'm a complete noob at this but I think I can say with confidence it looks like we're in for a interesting next couple of weeks lol!

Fringed even in late November! Cool looking sky though.

What is he talking about ?

nobody knows what's going to happen yet, we know with our luck we usually get a whiff or a cold rain so chances are against us. Let's just sit back and enjoy the tracking that's half the fun! well maybe 25% of the fun.

Just picked up a quick .5 inches from that line

Confirms what I have been thinking (so far). We shall see though.

Beautiful sky with this line approaching.

We’ll make sure the proper rituals are done to maximize our chances. If it doesn’t work, we’ll just have to sacrifice someone

The nice thing here is that this pattern evolution on the models just seems to be getting a little bit better and better each day. Nothing fast and dramatic just slow continue to prove it which makes the whole thing actually be believable. Last year was so awful waiting for it And waiting for it. And it looks so so very good on the models.

About to get into one of these from First State Brewing Old Friends Dubai-Style Chocolate Stout | 12.9% | 10oz Notes: Rich Chocolate | Sweet Vanilla | + Adjuncts: Cocoa Nibs | Pistachio | Vanilla

Some hail in this line

There were 1-2 a year or more ago, but haven't heard anything from them in a long time. Feel free to start a thread! Could be interesting, with atmospheric rivers etc. as opposed to the yawn of a fall/winter we're having in the Rockies so far.

Novemberecho

Moisture robber not an issue. Checks box.

Yeah, and it doesn’t matter if they are a warminista or weenie - everyone cherry picks what model supports their position. And everyone is right! At least for a time…

True, but more and more members falling below the mean and even reversing. Still very far out and can/will change a ton, though.

First mention of dec 2 system from LWX Forecast confidence decreases markedly by Tuesday. On the synoptic scale a shortwave embedded within a much broader longwave trough encompassing much of the CONUS is expected to lift northeastward out of the base of the longwave trough and interact with what should be a sharp baroclinic zone in place along the East Coast. Various sources of both deterministic and ensemble guidance show a large amount of spread with respect to what will ensue with this system. Some solutions show large precipitation totals, while others show little precipitation at all. Some show snow, some show a wintry mix, and others show plain rain. As is typical, temperatures look to be colder the further north and west one goes, so those locations have a greater chance to experience wintry precipitation if it were to occur. It`s too early to get into details at this point, but this system will be one to monitor over the next several days, as it has at least a chance to bring portions of the area their first wintry precipitation event of the year.

The weeklies keep slowly amplifying the Scandi ridging toward the North Pole over the course of December. They pop a western ridge too in week 3. That would be pretty sweet.

Bus gonna be firing up soon.

Weeklies are cold right through early January .

Its below average through the 1st week of January even here also.