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I respect the knowledge base for sure. Just not always the way its conveyed or responded to when counters are presented. Either way, I believe it's wise we maintain a diverse portfolio of follows this time of year. Lot of credible voices out there, not all are doom and gloom on this first day of winter.

They have it right. 25th percentile would mean a 75% chance of seeing more snow than that amount.

Days starting to get longer.

One of the rare times I agree with you. Its actually incredible how the Euro and its ensembles used to be "king" and how they have regressed so much.

Below are my obs from Thorndale in December 1998 and from the Coatesville 2W NWS observer. Not too much snow but just enough for the White Christmas

I have been scrolling to find a solid post to pin my hat to. This is better than most and also applies to Eric Webb.

Yesterday's weeklies were the warmest and they corrected cooler again today. The weeklies past 2 weeks, if they are correct, are like the old "broken clock is right twice a day" saying.

That's actually a time frame I've been keeping my eye on. Call it more of a gut instinct since my skills are lacking compared to many here

Reading this more closely, I think how they wrote it incorrectly.......the the 25th percentile should say "higher number".

This may have already been clarified.......if not, GYX provides the methodology for the 'range map'.

All the models should be taken with a grain of salt in the long range.

Obviously the EPS is totally lost. If it’s flip flopping that bad run to run in the long range, it’s not even worth taking it seriously right now no matter what it shows. The EPS and op EURO is definitely not what it used to be and the “updates” from a few years ago ruined it, it’s had some really abysmal failures the last few years

Was supposed to be sunny and 65 today. Raining most of the day with a high of 52. Wth happened??

You have snowpack? My yard right now

PWM is off to a nice start on Tuesday. Tuesday Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday A 40 percent chance of snow showers before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 33.

I really respect Eric and if he's going to be wrong he'll be backtracking on Twitter soon.

EPS leaning slightly BN at the moment for New Years eve night.

A really cold New Year holiday incoming?

Yep

Exactly

It is not cold outside...

it's just my opinion it doesn't mean it's right but from personal experience this is a nuisance snow that basically is gone the next day

I remember it well. Worked overnight (plowing) into the morning. My girlfriend had to leave to work and I caught her out the door at the last second to talk to her... I proposed to her that day. Still together 25+ years later.

I know. But if we want snow we have to accept cold and sometimes wind.

Move into my new home on Friday just in time for all of the children cancel winter. 23 years on here and it's the same almost every year. Im looking forward to the first snow out here whenever it comes.