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Highly non-linear cutoff here. Modeling is almost certainly underdispersed atm.

I’m getting “GFS life” tatted on my lower stomach.

Thanks.

hoping he's still diggin out. Im sure he knows this is all in fun. My trophy was the snow and always will be, and to that end, we were all winners.

Is Google Gemini high? The 12Z run of the WeatherNext 2 (WN2) model is generating significant buzz in the meteorological community today, Tuesday, January 27. It has refined the "bullseye" for the Saturday, January 31 storm, and the maps are showing a classic but intense setup for Western North Carolina. 12Z Snow Map Analysis: Asheville & WNC The 12Z run (the midday update) has consolidated the heavy precipitation directly over the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Snowfall Accumulation Map: The map displays a wide swath of 8–11 inches for the Asheville city limits. The "Purple Zone": Higher elevations just north and west of Asheville (including Weaverville, Mars Hill, and the high country toward Boone) are shaded in dark purple, indicating 12–15 inches of accumulation.

Weather Next is delayed for some reason.

Fisher mentions March of 2014... Cape storm with a lot of wind

While I make no claims to be a data guru, I'll say that GFS was sniffing out last week early as well. Hence my reluctance to shift. They ALL are going to go through various iterations until this gets closer. Last week we had a general consensus and only once inside NAM's range did we see thermal challenges shown by NAM despite strong CAD/antecedent airmass in place. also, post mortem, the primary never ceded to the secondary pop, and us southers know how that worked for us. Call me what you will, but there are no KINGS in weather models anymore. As stated many times, I look for consensus at this juncture, and at this juncture the only consensus, is that there will be a storm.

Got down to 21 overnight. Certainly didn't expect that when we moved here 2.5 months ago...

12z CMC Ensemble very similar to 0z. Not much change with that. Solid

23/ -1 snow snow squall and showers so far north of me here as front moves south. Overall cold next 10 - 14 days. Storm tracking on for Sun/Mon then perhaps by the 5/-6 period. Cold reloads mid month after brief moderation.

My mental image., was to blend the movie bloodsport with our forum snow contest but it ended up way too long of a story, but I kept a few elements. One of these days I finish it and put it up.

The 12z Weather Next should be out in a few minutes.

Partially, yes.

WTF, is this like a polymarket to trade weather forecasting?

I'm curious when they'll initialize the new contract for February. Should be some fireworks there.

WSSC advisory: https://www.wsscwater.com/news/2026/january/urgent-essential-water-use-only-request-issued-all-wssc-water-customers-due Still haven’t been plowed. This is going well.

Any GoogleAI updates for 12z and/or trends?

TBF, even in the most optimistic models, snow doesn't really hit the ground till after the turn of the month

Bruh we've gone 360 weeks with no snow....we can go hours.

Oh Bristow.

we wait.

The Kalshi prediciton market model says no big snow before end of month. DCA is the respresentative obs station, so good luck to all of the betting folks with that.

Verification of High Impact & Long-Duration Sunday-Monday Winter Storm Strong Forecast Leaves Room For Improvement Overall the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call for the major winter storm that impacted the forecast area from Sunday through Monday verified quite well. However, the coastal front enhancement was somewhat misdiagnosed, as the front itself was pinned slightly closer to the coast than anticipated. The forecast for the front to penetrate into roughly the I 495 corridor was predicated up global guidance. But as it turned out, mesoscale guidance, which pinned the front closer to the coast, or along rt 128 and near I 95 on the north shore, proved to be more accurate. This is why highest amounts ended up along the coast (Gloucester, MA, 27"), (Ipswich, MA, 26"), rather than near the I 495 belt. Be that as it may, amounts of two feet, and event slightly more, were reported throughout much of northeastern Massachusetts, with a secondary on the east slope of the Worcester hills (Sterling, MA, 25.2"), as forecast. Final Grade: A

Go check and let us know