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That U-shape to climate change over North America should be engrained in your brain… where Bangor Maine is +4 while DFW is less than +1 over the same time frame. This of course follows the behavior of the jet. The cold has increasing propensity to dump over the central US, but warmer SST’s especially with latitude is generating more inland runners. Shortwaves are finding less suppression as they travel east. No surprises here. The observational snowfall in the northeast has also followed with significant winters in Vermont and Upstate NY and the far interiors of NH and Maine. There will be exceptions of course, but this is new key persistence to factor into your seasonal forecasts, especially when this tendency is showing itself in real time, as it is now.

The long range EPS keeps underestimating that forcing in the 120E to 150E Maritime Continent regions.

Wow! That is amazing work!

32 for the low

Yes right now but it shouldn't last. Delayed but not denied

Record WPAC warm pool in conjunction with the cold over Siberia continue to create the very strong thermal gradient leading to the faster Pacific Jet and dominant Northern Stream Storm track. The tropical warm pool near the equator and the record subtropical warm pool to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians both enhance the Southeast ridge. Plus the record Gulf Stream SSTs also contribute. Models tend to underestimate this long range influence as we are seeing with the new forecasts in early December with stronger Southeast ridge than originally forecast. Once this pattern becomes established, it can linger longer than expected as we have often seen heading into December over the last decade. New EPS forecast for December 1-8 Old EPS forecast December 1-8

Who’s going to start the thread: “Post Turkey Day Hooker” :BEYOND THANKSGIVING, SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A TURN TOWARDS A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND GOING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. OVERALL, THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO FAVOR UPPER TROUGHING SETTING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PRESENCE OF GREATLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN SUCH A PATTERN IS NOTORIOUS FOR STEERING NUMEROUS IMPULSES ACROSS OUR REGION. ACCORDINGLY, SOME PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER, WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT AS IS TYPICAL, WHILE THE PATTERN LOOKS INCREASINGLY ACTIVE, THE FINER SCALE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT REMAIN LARGELY UNCLEAR AND WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. NEVERTHELESS, THIS PERIOD WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. STAY TUNED. - LOT

We should rename the station to that. KCO2

The 1st week of December does look mild though. Delayed but not denied ? Im going to remain patient. The Nina is dying and the MJO is going to go into 7/8 and most likely 1.

I think an amped storm brings us rain during this period. But a 2-4 incher could be in the cards if the timing is right especially for NW zones.

The models are really struggling. Thanksgiving and its weekend warmup went poof so is the week 1 warmup which consists of plus 20 day skewing the entire week Here's another warm bust in the making

We haven’t . Not one

They aren’t named. We’ve had a few.

Name one other than the Noreaster. There isn’t any

We’ve had a few coastals. Looks like CT is screwed then.

CO2?

Pattern is locked in with no signs of changes

Meh. Been nothing special. Greta.

The other concerning thing is lack of coastals this fall. We had 1. The nor’easter . Everything else has been cutters and fropas with a ton of wind which looks to Continue the next few weeks.

About as boring as you can run a -2. If we ran a +2 like this people would be saying it was faux warmth. But yeah, it’s been fairly seasonal with no real ups and downs.

It’s been a consistently fake airmass autumn. Lowest here is 27.9

Cant believe how warm it was the last week. 83 yesterday, and muggy. Felt like the begining of September. As usual, we are still lacking in the rain dept. Half inch for the month. Today should be a beautiful with less humidity and a high temp of 75. I have to admit, I am enjoying outdoor activities with this warmth.

Seems like guidance is really struggling with the Pacific pattern in early December. There will be some very cold air somewhere in North America. Not much more is certain yet.

Latest 17F or colder at CON is 12/12/1998. That’s pretty far out there still.