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As had been consistently the case with most of the high-quality guidance, the 500 mb story has remained largely unchanged. The spacing between the energy in the East remains too great to allow for much interaction, much less a phased solution. The top-performing ECMWF-AIFS has returned to its prior little or no snow solutions for President's Day. Finally, the overnight EPS deflated whatever dreams of a snowy solution might previously have existed.

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Bottom dropped out on the temperatures. 12° here and - 1° at Norwood.

Models are printing out more and more Pacific moisture for the Sierran Cordillera Sun night on into mid/late next week. It's now up to 4-5 inches of pure water. When that moisture conveyor hits the Cordillera and is forced 11,000 Plus feet straight up - LOOK OUT. Its February. Thermals gonnabe NO PROBLEMO. Massive travel weekend ahead. Millions of people trying to get back home later on say Tuesday next week will be frantic and forced to shelter in place. We may well be revisiting a little bit of the Infamous 2022-2023 Season there in that part of the world. I hope and PRAY will all of my desperate little MORBID snow weenie heart, ESPECIALLY SINCE I AM NOT GONNABE THERE, RISKING MY LOWER BACK FROM A FALL, that the models are DEAD WRONG and that Mammoth gets twice as much snow as is currently being depicted. Maybe even triple the currently depicted amount! George BM only thinks he is into extreme winter weather. I am gonna ENJOY this catastrophe! I will be eagerly happily watching from 84/63 Buda, drinking fresh cold well water like a hot horse in the Valley of Kings in Egypt in August, perfectly safe from falling on the superabundant ice in the Cordillera and also perfectly safe from easily freezing to death like the Donner Party in what could well turn out to be one of the worst snow episodes in recent history in the Sierras! I DEMAND MY SNOW FIX! And, I WILL get it - in SPADES!

Looks like we spike to 40 here Tuesday, but other than that only slightly above freezing. We'll take that.

‘81-82 was an excellent winter…one of the few good ones that decade. Very cold that winter with a lot of good events culminating in the April ‘82 blizzard. The problem with the 1980s is they had so few blockbuster storms…esp post-1984. We have a few biggies in 1987 (esp interior) but that’s about it. Then you mix in some absolute garbage snow winters overall like ‘84-85, ‘85-86, ‘88-89 and the decade averages out quite poor.

Driest winter for CLT since 2001 i think I read.

This chart shows the enso effect more clearly. Big dips in net radiation due to radiation to space occurred in 2010 and 2024 ninos. The correlation isn't perfect because there are other factors as well. Cloud cover for instance impacts the amount of sunlight that gets reflected back to space. Less clouds is contributing to the current increasing rate of heat build-up in the climate system. Reduced cloud cover is a positive feedback to warming temperatures. In-any-case the climate system isn't constant. As I pointed above, averaging over 11 years cancels out the short term variation.

Based on what I can ascertain so far, it gets warm in the early part of the week, maybe a day with 10 above normal or something. Then a minor system moves towards us, which might be mixed perhaps on Wednesday. Then a bigger system, which looks like a swfe and redeveloper comes in for Friday and Saturday, which should be snowy up here and a little tough to say in southern New England.

Is mid and late week next week 1 system or 2?

I'd be cautious without a peer reviewed paper. There is a lot of misinformation on climate out there. We see it here all the time. Most of the published studies I've seen show a negative effect. One that will increase in the future. Warmth is a benefit in northern areas, but a negative further south. Here are a couple of links. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00491-0 https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/climate-change-cuts-global-crop-yields-even-when-farmers-adapt

2020 was a warm and essentially snowless winter, which reversed to the mean, and turned cold in April and May. Same with 2023, which turned cold in May and June. We have nothing like that like this year. If we regress to the mean this year, it will be more like 2010, 2011, and 2015. All of those were cold and snowy winters, which turned warm in the spring. Yeah, none of this is going to happen. Polar vortex disruptions don't happen 2 weeks apart this late in the season. We're at best only going to get one of these.

Flakes maybe, I certainly don't see inches

I was born in 1970. There were a couple that were cold for certain short periods, and many that almost felt like months of extended late fall. It was a terrible decade for winter, with just a select few notable events mixed in. Observed from my back yard, I didn't focus much broader at the time Selfish teen lol

Grb duh

Icon/EPS will save us.... Knew more surprises were coming, I fully expect to be teased again at 06Z/12Z euro suite... Storm won't die

6z ICON EPS also

6z ICON was trying again

Icon !

I remember the May 2020 snow. It was the weekend I tore my rotator cuff. The high, I believe that Saturday, was only in the 30's, and we did have flurries and snow showers in Tamaqua. Of course there was no accumulation, but it was the first and only time I saw snow in May.

Nam way south This storm is done

End of the 0z Euro is warming up really good in the Midwest. Run it forward a few days and we might be talking about 70s. 117hr Euro is 57F in DCA 186hr Euro is 67F in DCA 288hr Euro is 64F in DCA 354hr Euro is 63F in DCA 4 separate fronts.. -PNA pattern Model run is probably too extreme, but it does highlight a warmer pattern coming up.

I’m ready to be let down again.

Ah I see said the blind man