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Gotta separate QPF as ZR and actual accretion too. I think you’ll have some decent icing up there around 1k Gene. But there’s really no ageostrophic lower dewpoint drain to offset the diabatic warming so once the ZR begins it’s a slow trend upward to 32°. I think we’ll probably wedge into the 30s until the cold fropa, but I think any additional accretion ends here in the morning and maybe mid to late morning up there.

*Meet up* I'll be at Kasoag Lake tavern and grill on Friday January 5th at the base of the Tug Hill. I'm going to rent a snowmobile and head up onto the Tug Hill. The forecast from Jay, at Kasoag Lake is for an intense lake effect snow band that will drop feet of snow on the region. Not feet of pattern, actual snow lol

Fun times! And no security cams recording the lot and snapping license plate photos.

0z EPS for the 4th- vorticity and surface pressure- got some southern stream action. Precip stays south just to the south.

I just saw this right after I made my post. Would all these negative factors apply for us up here too?

Wishing a road trip was in the cards tbh.

Zzzzzzz

Tip, yesterday, Dandy was also not very impressed for even up here. What am I missing? 1.25" of liquid, temperatures in the mid to upper 20s rising to around 32F tomorrow afternoon. Longer precipitation time up here too. Weather bell clown ice maps show .75 to 1.00" of ice. Even if that is 50% overdone, this seems like a big deal up here????

CPT non-diurnal temperature trend the next 36 hours I looked it up, one answer…These are what we call non-diurnal temperatures. It's a fancy way of talking about high or low temperatures that don't occur when they usually do. 28 degrees this morning.

No need to... the cold you are referring is particularly low level, and substantive in the mass loading into this system's preceding environment. The "real" synoptic cold is still low ... 22-ish with DPs of 10 or so, but with such limited +PP ( positive pressure pattern (high pressure) ) situated N, a 20 to 25 kt sustained 925 mb low arriving flow will change the setting very quickly. These metrical limitations on this system are not going anywhere. They are a predicament/detriment to this system's ability to maintain froze or freezing profiles. Lemme tell you something ... in late January 1994, we awoke one faithful morning to Winter Weather Advisory headlines in place, a temperature of 9 F on the weather lab's tele, and periodic flurries/grits coming down in the blue light of dawn throughout the Merrimack Valley. Deep winter was in place. By noon, sleet pellets had broken out, there was a south breeze, and the temperature had risen to 23 or so... By 3 pm, it was 31 F with steady freezing rain. By 6pm, it was 53 F with wildly swaying tree tops, and ice fog rolling off the snow pack and piles. By 9pm, it was 61 F with 55 mph gusts. Student around the campus had spilled into the commons and down town in Lowell, in short sleeve shirts to finalize the defiance in mockery of winter... 9 to 61, in 12 hours. All because a cutter went through BUF-ish, and had no antecedent +PP to protect from the arriving WCB ( warm conveyor belt ) -related wind field. Now, this situation doesn't have a 65 kt 920 mb jet core fire hosing at it...no. But, the 40 kts with no leading surface high is going to still reverse the tables and do it probably at a speed that comes to some surprise to people, even in the valleys.

Maybe one of those setups where you shoot up to 40° while Ryan is still -ZR in WeHa?

Nice overperforming storm. Forecast that morning was 1 to 3. Then upgraded to 3 to 6 in the afternoon and ended up with close to 8.

MSLP anomalies show a low passing to our south around the 4th and then a storm developing along the coast on the 6th/7th, then another around the 9th. Lots of spread obviously, but I think the H5 look is mostly due to the troughs developing when they hit the water.

Models always warm too quickly in these setups. If it can stay below 40 until noon, might be ok .

This tends to work better when the pack is deep and higher water content. It takes time to heat water…this type of pack prob gets pretty ripe quite quickly once dews reach 38-40F. You're area got a nicer dose of QPF so the valleys there could be tough to wipe out.

Doubt it if we get a layer of ice on top.. plus still had some snow from before that's not as fluffy

It is rare air to get all the teleconnections to line up in our favor.....heading in that direction as we go through the next 2 weeks. WB 0Z EPS.

5” of fluff will be decimated, even with the cold rain. Swiss cheese incoming

Currently 8F off a low of 3F in E CT, surrounding hills were about 10 degrees warmer…Wondering if models factoring in the current cold air in the SNE valleys and does all of this just get warmed during the day?

Pack here is very dense. Around .7-.8” water in it. As you said guidance some keeps western ct around 40 max, some 44-48 max.. other factors it’s a cold pack, have to raise the temp first to melt it. Also we may get a decent glaze in some areas which will protect it for a few hours. And hopefully minimal warm rain.

4 aspects go against anything of consequence... -- system movement too fast. 6 hours and the QPF's done reporting -- not enough in situ +PP over Ontario/QUE already dammed into the region. -- related to that ... cold is not being actively supplied with sub 0C DPs undercutting; without that thermodynamic fix, latent heat of phase change will self-defeat the situation -- not enough QPF This is a road skidder and a couple submissions to funniest home videos type ordeal ... I do agree though that with initial cold in the Ekman BL drag working with speed of system translation, the whole thing should probably be done with and on the west side of the escaping lp before warm sector makes very far N.

Yeah sell the hrrr here.

Nothing melted yesterday and after a low of 17 and clouds don't expect much to melt today either.

FRAM is the kuchie of ice

So yeah roughly .5:1 like I guessed... Still, 1/2 of ZR is no joke Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk