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What 20th threat ? Looks OTS

A long way from far northern Maine here, but snowfall/pack season-to-date are very close to average. My lament is the continued mega-meh that we've had for the past 20 months. This month's temps have been Jekyll-Hyde so far - first 6 days were 9.7 BN, 7-12 have been 10.3 AN. Today-tomorrow will run +15-20 before things cool down to only 5° AN.

To be pedantic, it's not really overrunning since there's no warm air advection and no warm air aloft. The northern stream is squashing any warm air from the gulf but also squashing moisture

It's like if we're not gonna get a meaningful snowfall with this cold, we might as well move along to spring. But I know that won't happen. Hopefully there's hope down the road. Time will tell. And the only can kicking that will be taking place will be in Harrisburg. Canderson's trash cans after a 50mph wind gust on trash day.

That epic pattern was locked in for weeks. No one saw the intensity but many of us knew it was about as good as it gets modeling wise. The Jan 15 thread shows that

January 13 1916: The high temperature in the Twin Cities only reaches a frigid -14 degrees.

The 20th would have a colder antecedent airmass, so that would be preferable over the 18th anyway. Not that we have the luxury of preferences.

12z ICON has a worse outcome than the 00z ICON for our area on Sunday but the system looks a lot more like an actual storm now. Imagine it trended better at h5 but it's the ICON so not that interested in digging in lol

Long range RGEM backing the flow a little bit before one of the weekend's short waves. I'll post another pic when the prettier maps come out.

And less than 2.75” of snow?

There certainly is a bit of a feelin of "here we go again" starting to settle in; however, IF, and it's a big if, if we can get the southern stream open up later this month, I like our chances. This is an antsy time on this forum because there's enough showing on indices to keep positive people optimistic about future chances, but we're seeing enough can-kicking right now to feed the negative folks with enough sauce to start complaining. Even over the past couple of years when we were stuck in an overall unfavorable pattern, we got enough good looks that were advertised to be coming but either never did show up or if they did, did not produce. So now when the good looks get pushed back again, the I told you so comments start flying. A few weeks ago many thought that most of January would be rocking, today's sentiment is we're looking at the last week of the month into mid February. I really do see and empathize with both sides/viewpoints. I think there's enough showing to be optimistic and I think there's been enough can-kicking that it's natural to be skeptical.

I wouldn't totally throw in the towel on the 20th yet...it's still a week out and we've seen some swings with the evolution of that shortwave digging in around that period. It's really not that far off from producing something. I would give this another 3 days or so before totally writing it off. And beyond that, with that Arctic front as advertised...there will almost certainly be some significant winter weather produced by that...we just have to hope we end up in the spot. There is no way to definitively lean one way or another right now so all we can do is assess

We all get it…we got the cold and now the moisture is hard to find. Shit happens. It’s frustrating, but we have the heart of the season coming up, so the moisture could come as the EPS is showing currently. Hope so.

I mean better hope something goes right from the 20th on, it’s precarious anyway in SNE being a gradient set up with haves and have nots.

Let’s do it! Sey-Less snow or “Sey-Mour snow than Methuen”

I caught that..thank you .

Yep, several weeks left in January.

Lmao…and if they did(which they won’t), the water would freeze before it hit the fire/ground. Epic disasters incoming.

That has been the prevailing theme however and I did give a proper wolfie caveat of “know one knows” so…

What types of systems are we seeing on the 10 day? That period of 22-26 looks good on paper, but I haven’t seen models.

i'm not liking these trends!

Well good thing we have 2.75 weeks left to the month.

Sey-Less Snow It would do wonders to lift board spirit if you did the name-change.

Our favorite day Jan 27th.