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It's complex for Lowell's track. Karina moving into to area N of the islands will likely play a role here as to how strong it may be when it get closer to the trough to the NW, and how it influences the depth and position of the main upper-level trough itself! It is quite a strong 200 mb trough that develops NNW of the islands, but it only digs so far S, and at first it is positively titled and then goes negative, but at that time, it lifting is N rapidly, and then Lowell gets left behind well NW of the islands and starts moving W again. And the ensembles reflect this w/ a recurve path NNE and then it goes back NW. Where will the inflection point be!? Given the intensity of Lowell, 200 mb flow is good to use for general steering flow in this case. This is not like Iwa in 1982 or Iniki in 1992. Those were picked up by strong troughs to the W of islands much farther S, so their tracks were more straight-shooter, acceleration N going ET fairly quickly after passing the islands. Dot's track in 1959 is not the same setup either, and the 1871 estimated Cat 3 hit the eastern side of the Big Island coming in from the, so no real good analogs here when it comes to very close passes or direct hits on HI for hurricanes. Has social media latched on to this threat yet? You know how that goes! @weatherwiz has a great post recently on the Edouard thread about wishcasting, some trying everything and anything to make Edouard to RI. It did start that process. but it ran out of time, and the finer details looking at it evolution in real time that were fascinating in itself were overlooked (not here, elsewhere). Beyond the actual meteorology, I often think about the social and economic factors/impacts. The Lowell threat to HI that is starting to ramp up now about 6 days before any sig impacts, it going to hurt travel/vacation to the state. And say the western part of the state gets hit, the hype/doom will be so intense, ppl are going to think he entire island chain was devastated, and that has huge impacts well down the road for tourism and the like.

short live stream of the lightning from the northern york county, looking north from a slight elevation

Tomorrow afternoon/early evening will be our best chance for scattered convection.

Well, like you said....we need to give it through October.

Should be in the seasonal mean, but we need to time one during the negative intervals...there should be some.

So far it hasn't I agree that the cold season will be super interesting to see if it happens or not. Like I said models showing -200dm for a monthly mean, are they that bad? lol

BTW, if you have seen the EURO and CANSIPS snowfall output, this appears to be what these models do.

SPC has day 4 yellow highlighted 15% risk out for portions of East Tennessee https://vxtwitter.com/iembot_mrx/status/2095070809425371576?s=46&t=nTdsbQZkQMPkUI3zGjAXJg .

Usually that storm track happens in +NAO raindancewx still has to tell me how he gets U of Del precip working on that map lol

Sure, but the question you need to ask yourself..."is it already out of the picture completely"...because if the answer is no, then it will show up this season.

Next year should make up for it with a Nina, assuming the mdr warms back up. But yeah this season was dead on arrival. .

I'm not actually taking for granted that the El Nino will actually do anything to the N. Pacific pattern. Models have -120 to 200dm on monthly means... they usually don't bust that bad... but we are in a "time" where the N. Pacific low is trending more and more out of the picture completely. Just the way it's going.

Agree. I wonder if a neutralish PDO with an El Niño of this magnitude doesn't shift the STJ inward and upward relative to climo for intense El Niño.

I don't think the SE, US will be below average temps like a lot of historical analogs suggest

Yea, someone in the New England forum was trying to tell me were going to have a -PNA this winter...I was like, find a super El Niño that pulled that off. -AO/+PNA means you can essentially eliminate the bottom dwelling seasons....even 1972 didn't. Now, maybe it will be bootleg, etc...but the season will average +PNA in the DJFM mean.

Since the El Nino developed in April, it's been a clear mid-latitude ridging pattern under 90N +AO. That's been the dominant pattern - not anything coming from the Tropics I'm going to repeat this post, the pattern has been following itself closely, not anything in the historical analog dataset. Similarities to 2025 over the past 5 months: 2025 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2026 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2025 Aug +PNA 2026 Aug +PNA 2025 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO 2026 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO

1 of 2 derechos that day. The 2nd one hit our area

July 22, 2011 had high end heat. A lot of records that day, including EWR's all-time high of 108.

What I can tell you based on what has been happening for the past decade is that the error is likely to be guidance underestimating the scope and magnitude of that Canadian ridge, so it's probably safe to assume that the greater heights will extend further to the south and east than most guidance suggests.....which combined with the poor read on the Pacific makes me very suspicious of that trend to shove the lower heights northward on the CANSIPS. This isn't me saying awful winter....I don't think, or want that to be the case, but that doesn't mean that I'm going to don my Frosty the Snowman boxers every time that I post.

several tornado warnings in NY/PA today

While we’re setting the O/U on audible thunder at 0.5

Labor Day 1998 https://www.cnyhistory.org/2014/09/labor-day-storm-1998/

I think Wx Twitter is going in circles because this will be the last Atlantic TC we see in a while.