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23 here. Quite the whiplash from Saturday.

That's because the initial conditions are different each model cycle so the perturbation of those initial conditions among the ens members often results in somewhat different outcomes from one run to the next. The ensemble forecast is a 'check' on the higher res deterministic for that particular run- each ens run gives an indication of uncertainty(error in initial conditions) for that particular deterministic outcome, and so (especially at longer range) they will also reflect some differences from run to run. 8-10 days out I simply monitor the mean over a series of consecutive runs, and the outcome generally stays pretty consistent, depending on the model, number of members, etc. Anecdotally the Euro/EPS seems more consistent from one cycle to the next. That's my take and I am sure its not completely correct lol.

Poking around the resort cams this morning, I’m currently watching snow fall at Buckeye Lake near Beech Mtn. Thing is - these dendrites are super large. Like I truly don’t know if I’ve ever seen flakes that large with a temp of 11°. Anyone else seeing it at their location?

Light snow this morning with a solid coating. Snow shield is more expansive and further south then expected. Got down to 3F last night before temps started to slowly rise.

Nothing but a few flurries likely on New Year’s Day. The Clippers are more just like a dried out frontal passage until it reaches the Cape Cod area and then it can drop a few inches. Becoming less and less likely that there is any accumulation in these parts at all.

I woke to a new snowpack that basically in 24hr restored most of what I lost during the major rain and thaw . Intense LES band over me currently giving major vibes! Suppose to get 1-2" but hoping for more if we're going to be smothered in snow anyhow. I can't stop looking out the window at the pour

Updated map @cutlew

You’d think the weenies would be having a whine fest here after that run. I guess they got it out of their system yesterday.

Looks like 4th and 7, need to punt. Maybe the offense can matriculate down the field a bit more once we establish a solid - EPO in about 10-12 days.

Yeah if we get a major EPO ridge as advertised, we want a flat SE ridge to keep the storm track nearby.

Could definitely produce a few inches south of Boston if things break right

The atmosphere conserves energy for Maritime lows and cutters.....notice the Michigan bomb had no problem detonating....but then when something is near the east coast, the gradient and Hadley Cell are of a sudden prohibitive.

Yeah, at some point, we’d expect to congeal some sort of coherent signal, and that’s just not happening.

Step back at 00z hopefully we revert back positively for 12z

I know Kev loves his 2"ers...but at that cost? Rather see the ball drop on cracked, barren earth with my eyes peeled to explosive model runs.

My concern with the 8-10th period has been and will continue to be the lack of solutions showing storms. The means regressed significantly last night and even those had been driven by a couple members with a big storm vs a lot of members showing something or something close. It just hasn’t gathered much modeling support and in the 10-day timeframe you’d really want to at least start seeing ensemble support for a valid threat

I mentioned that yesterday. Looks like it could be a small event for se Mass and cape. I was more talking longer term potential. Definitely nothing imminent

Now THIS reminds me of years of my youth. It snow flurried here for hours yesterday evening and overnight, I have MAYBE 0.5" of snow blown against objects and in low spots, not a complete cover. But, JUST to my west there is a solid 1" or more and it is still coming down. Looking at cameras, yep, 'Shoe, Homestead up in Hot Springs, up in Highland county, over to Lewisburg WV all look to have 1-2 OTG at the least. Currently partly cloudy, 18.8/9.3 with W wind 12 gusting to 26 mph. Highest wind I had was 51 mph at 12:47 am. Edit-story time. Reason this SO reminds me is this would happen and we'd get a 2 hour delay or sometimes even at cancel for school. Mom was a RR carrier for post office, so I'd be delegated to helping deliver (putting mail in the box from passenger seat as she drove) on her route on cancel days. She did the western and southern part of the county. No sooner than we'd leave the city of Covington snow would go from what I have today to complete cover and deeper the further we'd go west. Up near the WV line there'd be 2 or 3 inches, same for the southern areas near Craig county line. Get back home and as 'ol Yukon Cornelius would say... nuthin.

Dude you are horrible. You have had a bad December. Dont worry the warmth will eventually be here. Now here is the 6z gefs run. Back to cold.

If I had my druthers, I would eradicate that clipper....it offers much more risk than reward-

Fab Feb your table is ready

Looping through the EPS, it kind of seems to me that the clipper blows up once past our longitude (of course) and nails the Maritimes, only to push the main baroclinic zone far enough out so that any potential follow up joy suffers a similar fate.

It could be right but we had one bad suite. For now it’s a blip not a trend.

Avella, Wash county near Ohio border - 7”. Someone might pop 10” down there! Not sure we have any posters in the middle of that, but figure some of the south hills posters will have a decent amount. Unreal - we do all this “work” sometimes to bring home big snows. Then every once in awhile this happens. (Sadly, I’m sitting under 2” for this, but hoping something better oscillates in)

Reports of the clippers’ death are greatly exaggerated .