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If so, then we just need to continue to see a footprint of a ULL or meso low development. Details can be ironed out. But hoping not for a feast or fathom choice.

We truly do not want this vort to go digging for oil or it will never get up here.

A+ fantastic call and write up Ray.

hits the cold brick wall. I think it reasonable that it could sit n spin as it does. thatd be a way to get meaninful qpf back this way. If we remember the trends of the last event, anyone sayin its over, should be stripped to undies n thrown into a snow drift.

apologies looks like this has already been addressed.

Should be higher ratios if we can get the moisture.

Im not liking the trends y'all, especially with the Euro and WeatherNext. But its still early. If 12z continues to kick this thing out, then that may be the nail in the coffin especially with how close we are to the event. If we dont get it here, im rooting for yall in Raleigh and down east. Could be a big one for yall

we'll probably get more this weekend? these type of storms usually trend more amplified and stronger! This is what i'm thinking will end up being

All ENS means are kind of a graze with major impacts confined to se MA, except for the GEFS.

so given the nature of the air mass (cold) would the snow ratio being above 10:1 need to be increased for the values shown for the western carolinas or is that already baked into these AI runs?

The 06z Euro OP is OTS.

when the main thread is doom and gloom, you guys usually have a good shot. I think both our areas of the sub have a chance at this one, but i do hope there is not a continued east trend on modeling. I think we have until Thursday before there is a good consensus on this one.

why today ? I think we will be spinning our wheels today with the ops and ensembles arguing with themselves and with others - one other thing need to get that kicker out of the picture and the trough to go more negative

Stay safe in Reading, PA.

The potential of this storm is very high. That being said overhyped happens too much.

I know getting LEQ can be tricky and I’ve seen them vary highly in a small area, but my old coworker in Randolph which is just west of me came in with 2” last night at 8p and it was still snowing. I knew this stuff had meat.

Our neighborhood has not been plowed. Whole 5" + sleet is still covering the road. Went out last night to the grocery store to restock for potential snow this weekend and even with tire chains, it was difficult to get out.

never before has someone flown onto my ignore list so quickly.

Thanks for doing what you do. Peeps love to bitch at them for what they dont/didnt do, but seeing it first hand w/ my son and his best friend, puts a notably different perspective on what they do during notable events. He said right around midnight he got ut of wheel loader and stuck his head in the snow to stay awake. Like you I hope we pad stats this weekend. Hoping it ticks west today or tomorrow. Based on setup looks like it has a reasonable chance. Will start back into trackin mode today. Have a good one.

That’s 2+” of snow for most of Carolina’s.

If it misses the general public will say it was overhyped/bust

Awesome Machines!

Are 6z Euro and EPS better than 0z? .

Yep, that is what happens 95% of the time. Sleet doesn't 'add' to OTG for a good while, it relentlessly beats whatever newly fallen snow to a pulp, reducing it by up to half depending on how fluffy (dry) or hard (wet) it was prior to the flip, and how hard/fast/heavy the sleet is falling. Once it reaches a compacted consistency, THEN sleet starts to add to the OTG totals.

Theres 2 camps on the 6z EPS. One is in a good spot for our subforum track near the benchmark. The other is way out to sea. I’m encouraged by the GEFS but I want to see the EPS make a significant shift west with its mean today.