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What are the non deepest snow depths?

I am not but you might be!!!! You might want to look at the 12Z GFS compared to the old 6z GFS that you are referring to. I am not sure if you are smart enough to understand that the LOT forecast that you referring to was before the 6z run came out and believe it or not models do change from time to time. You my friend have a wonderful day and enjoy your 2-3 day Feb 17 redux!!!

Still coming down well

antecedent cold is not stoudt, so we may need column to cool dynamically (ala Euro), but thats more of an outlier IMO. I think thermally we'll be i trouble down here, but as currently depicted would get some front end prior to losing thermals. I personally can see this going norther and what I just suggested could be an issue into central Pa (assuming north trend continues). I'm glad to see the storm no matter. We need it. Beyond that, next week looks redundant of this week. No big torch, and some cool days sprinkled in (sorta normalish see saw stuff.)

The UK is a miss south...but in one way it's a win. We have 2 things we need here...precip and temps. The UK is colder! If the storm had tracked further north it would have been snow...no issues with that thermal profile as the storm slides to our south. That is important...the runs that are both weak AND warm are the really bad runs... I'll take the UK look...we would just need the storm to be slightly more amplified/north to win.

after years of bad luck can we finally have it on our side? who knows.

UKMET looks slightly better, but still offshore. Going to need to see some other models come more on board at 18z/0z or the Euro is likely toast. The EuroAI may be telling in a few minutes.

My definition of Spring commencing, at the latitude of North Alabama, is when the suns declination reached 10 degrees south, and the average daily mean temperature rises back up to 50 Fahrenheit( 60 for a high and 40 for a low). Any snow, ice, or bitter cold around or after reaching this point in the season change would be termed a "Spring snow or Spring cold snap" as opposed to a "winter" event. Of course someone in a more northerly latitude may not agree with this assessment because they stay much colder despite a high sun angle. And vice versa for lower latitudes.

it's still over 100 out and things are close...stop over reacting to every run. It's unlikely but the solution we need is a minor adjustment still well within the margin or error of what guidance is currently showing. I think because this showed up 15 days out as a threat window...and we've been tracking it SOOOO long...people think it's closer than it is and are reacting to every run like we are 48 hours out and a trend means...thats it..this is the final solution. We are still 5 days away, time for things to wobble one away or the other. We need a slightly stronger storm that takes a perfect track. That is going to be difficult..we will need luck...but its not like we need some HUGE adjustment from what guidance is showing. Depending on where you're located of course...

Never say never in March.

Another thing to factor into the Sunday/Monday ordeal too is this is really going to be the first system in quite some time that is convectively active across the deep South and that is something that could negatively influence the northern side of the storm and have much moisture/QPF is really available.

Hang in there pal. Just a newbie that needs to figure out how things roll in here.

Using a 230+ hr model run of the operational GFS (lowest skilled model) as a means to cope with the coming torch is hilarious though, bravo there.

There might be some ppl playing hookie next week. Looking like a decent little thaw incoming.

Are you illiterate? This is straight from LOT:

Why? That would crush all of SNE

We still have a thread the needle option for PD. It's actually pretty simple...strip away the mumbo jump technical stuff and we basically need a more amplified wave that takes the perfect track. That's it. Maximize dynamic cooling with a marginal airmass, perfect track to get heavy precip without any SE flow. Too weak and its rain. Too far north and its rain. We need both the track and the amplitude of the wave to be perfect. It's not complicated...but also not likely, but we're dealing with a marginal setup so we need everything to break out way. Time to get lucky! Long range... I was optimistic 2 days ago, but that was based on the EPS/GEPS look in the long range...I was tossing the GEFS...well because...its been hot garbage for a long time. Unfortunately everything has moved towards it the last 48 hours. It's not necessarily the absolute worse look...the Atlantic is still workable...the pacific is bad but its not the absolute worse...it would only take some slight adjustments here and there to turn it into a good enough look and adjustments that are well within likely errors...but of course those errors could be the other way and it ends up a total shutout look and winter is over. We will see. We need the NAO to trend a little more negative, we need that WPO ridge to extend over the top and put some pressure on that AK vortex. Those two things would take the current look the end of Feb and make it a lot more workable.

Up to 45. Not even wearing a jacket. River ice is 11" thick. Time to go and do some stupid shit before the ice melts.

I've been very confused about this. Where has all the talk come from about muting warm ups all winter? Outside of that stretch we had in January, I don't think there's been any [realistic] signals of any "warmups". I mean I suppose you can quantify this week as a "warmup" though its still below climo. Where between January and up until now has there been any true warmups signaled? And 2m temperature anomaly maps from a few OP runs

I feel pretty good about the storm reaching us. I don't feel nearly as good about it being cold enough. The air mass leading in isn't our friend but there still is a path (narrow) to get at least some snow.

Have a system to track inside 5 days.. 12Z model summary. GFS: still a southern slider with no phasing. Heaviest precip. southeast; DC about .3 inch; temps upper 30s-40s SE. Canadian: less amped this run so not as cold; but still snow for NW burbs. Precip. 1-2 inches; 6 inches snow NW; 2 inches DC; temps mid 30s this run compared to upper 20s last run.

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Yea, he'd start up installs and Gypsy moth lectures as a coping tool.

That would be great NNE gets whacked while Kev sobs giant tears and joins TeamTorch