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I guess its as good as anything we can guess on. conservative in some cases and kinda broad brushed from WSW to ENE. you think Roanoke and Salisbury will have similar outcomes? I mean maybe taking into account the orographic lift vs. the coast taking over. we shall see.

They generally don't like to make big changes shift to shift to avoid a windshield wiper effect. Heavier snow to the south reflects the model consensus from a day or two ago. If the further north solutions persist, future maps will gradually reflect that.

Yeah I’m confused. They have 12-16 for me.

From their winter weather page. Just select it, click copy, and paste it in lol

That High supports snow for linger than us bring recognized I believe. My idea has been and hasn’t changed that DC to Balt area is in for a 10-15” event

havent seen that since 2015 i think? fun times...

First call map isn’t bad my friend!! I do think mixing will end up further north than what you have, but you have the right idea. Let me tell you, I am impressed at your acumen and intelligence to grasp some of this complex meteorology at your age. I was following along at your age once upon a time, learning and taking in things like a sponge. You are doing great and ahead of the game. You and @SnowenOutThere keep up the great work. It’s been a cool sight watching you two both grow up and learn on here. Now go eat some crayons!!! You’re making us all look bad

Damage in the drizzle. That’ll be my thing to watch during this storm. We don’t want slack rates.

This storm gave us the finger a couple of days ago.

How did you get that lol

I am just hoping area B is farther south now.

I need B to slide a little south into D, lol

Comparing 15z Srefs 78hr snowfall total to 9z Srefs 84hr snowfall total. 15Z IS BETTER!!!

Agreed

If I get 18” of snow and sleet I’ll go nuts. I’m expecting more like 10” and 1-2” sleet.

If you check the hourly it is probably rain through midnight, then a temperature freefall to 15 at sunrise behind the front.

Here you go Upton map.

This should appease the masses.

Why is that map 2024? Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

Thats exactly where we need it to be!

I’m done with model plots lol. Ready to watch snow fall.

Wouldn't you think they would want it the other way? I don't know, I would think they would will the public's confidence by going down more so than going up. I won't beat it to death.

Thanks!

Bitchin Nachos!! Nice write up and map. I toast you a cold frosty Capri Sun!