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Love to see it
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Same here! As for the overnight rainfall, a bunch of HRRR cycles late yesterday showed a significant minimum in the precip for most of the area. I dismissed it, because it really didn't fit the narrative, but it was spot on.
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Blizzard of 93 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The 0z GFS brought back the potential chance for an end of the month coastal that is influenced by the -NAO. -
1.45", was not expecting that but definitely welcome and needed
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Another dud here 0.19”
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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, it's wild some of the flip flopping OPs are doing right now. Huge NAO -> No NAO-> some sort of N Atlantic blocking Meandering cutoff over the Southern CONUS -> Now just a cutter I am also glad some of the runs are starting to move that Aleutian ridge around. Hopefully once they ingest the thunder we had last night for their 12z runs, things will start to move around even more -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Blizzard of 93 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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underwhelming so far but an inversion was mentioned in the AFD
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Line did a nice split around you @MN Transplant
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Damage In Tolland replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
Merry Christmas! -
You can see the LLJ off New Jersey behind the rain shield. Almost like a little meso low with a warm front.
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Any wind will be after that rain shield moves in, but if you’re getting rain, you’re not gonna have much wind.
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check out that squall line over the finger lakes down to Scanton!
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Sey-Mour Snow replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
Not even a breeze here meh.. the 3" of pack from yesterday is wiped down to piles.. -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Great Snow 1717 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
Personal attacks are not going to change my point of view...lol....but you can keep on trying lol -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
HoarfrostHubb replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
Pack eating fog at home. Temps near 50 winds and rain incoming. Happy Holidays! -
Their chestnuts roasting on an open fire, plates of prozac nipping at their nose...
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
WinterWolf replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
Keep up the memes and constant negativity in Rainthuen. -
Plenty windy here. Some of my lawn decorations blew over
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Ha yah that fits
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At least good for energy savings.
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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
With opposing teleconnections (high in the Aleutians and high over Greenland), modeling "could" have its hand full. The base pattern would be an eastwardly displaced PNA ridge w/ cold attempting to stretch from Alaska into the NE. Cold would roll over the top of that ridge and any storm(Miller B or A) would bring down very intense cold behind it into the SE. I wouldn't say it is a great pattern for snow unless we can score an inland runner. But...it could get crazy cold IF the NAO is as strong as projected on both the Euro and CMC(especially the GDPS). FWIW, ensembles aren't seeing cold fronts at all - just completely washed out until the last minute. That is why I am using them less. It is entirely possible the NAO does not develop, but it is infamously difficult to predict. I am a bit wary of any model where it is absent late in the run. The wind is absolutely howling here....that must be what you all were describing.
