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The GFS still isn't great for Sunday. A little 12z Canadian like with a mid-level low in the Lakes and a pos tilted trof structure

yea wow the AIGFS looks great, good trends. It's likely mostly snow, toss that look on Icon on TT. Lets just bring it back west and stronger and we can worry about thermals later. But that AIGFS is mostly snow.

Ah thank you. So basically when we're discussing the PNA for this time period its more so about the upper northwest instead of the California region. So basically we need better ridging to the north of the closed low to encourage high pressure and cold air transport while maintaining the TPV to anchor the high out east in place. Do we actually have any mechanisms for this stuff (particularly the TPV) to remain in pace to prevent the SER resurgence because otherwise it seems like a longshot with timing.

probably close, but no cigar

I accept. Where do I sign?

Yes. That's what I was referring to irt research. I'd saw a thing or two on where you had did that. Was that dependant on La nina location Larry ?

For many, or most, at least in eastern areas...... Which is it?

The GFS loves to dig and amplify stuff thouhh. Look what it did January 2025 and what it did for 1/16. It’s a known bias. Wouldn’t put any credence into it

Slightly better map, but yeah, this is a 1-2”+ storm for many of us.

GFS looks quite a bit more consolidated

Blah, blah, blah ... ...... Joking...... but I didn't believe it ... YET

You also fail to mention it’s rain for many, or most, at least in eastern areas

Gfs is improving

I think this latest GFS will be significantly better for us from how the H5 is looking out over the plains. Still probably a bit too broad though.

The GFS at 84hrs looks like it has a sharper shortwave with more vorticity crossing into North Dakota. I think that's the vorticity that sharpens the base of the trof a day or so later... we'll see... could be a slightly better trof for Sunday

Actually, I did a study recently that surprisingly showed that Jan phase 6 in the SE (using GSP as a representative) has had a mix with a bit more cold vs warm phase 6 Jan periods. Examples of cold during La Niña in Jan: 1975 (8 BN), 1976 (9 BN during a long period of 13 days), 2000 (4 BN), 2011 (7 BN during a long period of 12 days), 2022 (9 BN), and 2025 (5 BN). There were some mild Jan phase 6 periods during La Niña also like 1989 (+8) and 2008 (+8) although those two were only 3 days long each. Keep in mind though that the current phase 6 started off mild. So, it remains to be seen how cold it will end up overall as it’s progged to last through ~Jan 21st.

this looks really good the storm is a bit weak but that's a decent snow event GFS AI

A storm is eventually going to happen with the PNA being positive.

Icon and Ai gfs bringing back the 18th

AI GFS showing a storm offshore, moderate precipitation for Sunday during afternoon and evening. You want more than ICON and AI GFS in your corner thouhh or you end up with a 1/16 repeat

Icon and Ai gfs bringing back the 18th

Get ready for Lucy to pull the football by tomorrow or Thursday

AI GFS is decent for the 18th. We continue seeing some positive trends.

It's a blend of the Model's as most know as it's pretty obvious. I don't know how many are used or which one's to come up with the Average of them all. It's been awhile since I was told by the NWS . They just explained it and said it's the one they use. I don't think any Model's are given more weight than the others. If the better Model is showing 10" for a given area while 2 of the worst are showing zilch, the printout is going to be very low and may be way off. So, it's overall a good Idea Model. You get the average of the Consensus so to speak but, it can sometimes be way off because of what I mentioned above.

Frontal passage tomorrow looks fun, at least.