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The 18z AIFS has a -EPO ridge at the end of its run. A lot of this looks like SSW signals - hints of HL blocking.

Thoughts on wind Friday?

We dissected this pattern enough I think. I just hope we are on the right side of things, but it’s concerning.

Thanks. For some reason I've never noticed it there.

Went from 38 at 4 pm to 28 at 5:15 as the sun slipped behind the mountain this afternoon. Currently 26.4/21.0 at 8 pm.

Weeklies are warm for January? big month of cold and snow incoming

I have no big changes from yesterday. Going forward, the WPO- is likely to become less negative and the EPO could go negative for a time, which would blunt the full effects of warming across the northern tier of the U.S. and especially Canada. The PNA will remain persistently negative. The changes favor a Southeast ridge, strong trough in the Pacific Northwest, and a weakening trough over the Northeast and eastern Canada. Thus, the southern tier of the U.S. and perhaps most of the CONUS could see a warmer than normal December 20-31 period overall. The warmup could take time to develop in New England and the upper Midwest. Canada should remain broadly colder than normal for the period overall. There's a chance that the warmth could finally overspread the Northeast as December concludes and January starts. Should an EPO+/AO+ pattern develop, that would increase prospects for warmth in the Northeast. The EPS favors a near neutral AO while the GEFS favors a negative one.

Every time we are supposed to wake up to snow, I have a dream that I wake up to nothing. Never fails.

46 day Weeklies hmm, normal to BN for all of New England with 5 to 7 inches of precipitation. Look it up.

You can see it on tropical tidbits too albeit later vs pivotal weather.

Higher odds of me suiting up at fullback on Sunday night for the pats than a below normal January.

Yeah that report and probably a few others should have been removed from the final PNS. Just remember though, reports in PNSs and LSRs are all considered preliminary (not official).

I was going to ask about donuts, But...........

The last few pages were entertaining, Especially Brians new bio, I lol'd at several of those and tossed several others with a

you would take the maximum temperature observed from Dec 15-31 in each year from 1991 to 2020 and calculate the average.

He's always seeing something. Lot of dope

no - it's the mean maximum temperature for the entire month. Which means - in the last 30 years, on average, the maximum temperature observed at DCA was 67F. In July, DCA's mean maximum monthly temperature is 98F - which means that's on average as hot as it gets here in July. You can see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.#Climate The row in question in the climate table is "Mean maximum"

Use with caution, but the CFS fired off a big -NAO and cold underneath a few days post Christmas.

Think golf courses will be open by the New Year?

We're so used to failure and heart break that we've become used to it, like the way an old glove fits.

Pivotal is free Weathermodels.com is 10 bucks a month.

Help a guy out... where are you seeing Skynet. I haven't been able to find any of the AI... stuff

These are not the same. I understand what you mean Scott…but is he really one of those? I’m sincerely asking…I don’t watch much of them, so I’m not all that versed.

I had a low of 26 this morning and a high of 54 this afternoon. It looks like wet weather arrives Thursday afternoon into the evening hours with a cold front. The models indicate we will have highs in the mid 50's and lows in the 30's this weekend heading into Christmas Eve. I'm enjoying a break from the cold temperatures frankly. It's certainly not a so called torch that the drama queens have been wringing their hands over!

They’re all the same to me. Hype and clicks.