All Activity

Yeah it's not a bad look at all for the early-winter crew. Obviously NNE has been spoiled this year and it really looks to continue, and that's a good sign.

FWIW, you only had to go about 30 miles north of NYC today to find good snow. It never got above freezing in most of Putnam County, NY including all the way down at river/sea level. This was a cold airmass for that area (before, during, and after), which isn't typically a snowy location. New England got kind of boned with this storm because of the particular upper level progression and low level flow/coastal fronts. But this was kind of a fluke.

It would seem quite possible considering the indices: - rising -NAO - rising -AO - weak MJO phase 8 (near or inside circle) - quick +PNA spike

I like your hint of optimism. The modeled longwave trof position and angle look very favorable for almost 10 days. Wave after wave diving from the Pac NW into the central US... just need one or two to find a gap and amplify. I think it's the kind of "pattern" that you'd want in December to try to string a few together and build a pack. Odds are usually against us, but I don't hate the look.

good snow growth now, only around 1 mi. vis. though. maybe 1/4" since changing over

32/30 -SN 4.8" total accumulation

The UKIE, GGEM, and ICON show a winter event of varying degrees in the area. The Canadian would be a major winter storm with significant ice along the 40 corridor from the mid-state to the mountains. Some snow on top of the ice across areas north of 40. UKIE looks like a long duration sleet event. The ICON is a 1-2 inch snow north of 40.

Very active pattern on the models . Lets hope good things come our way. AI GFS also shows a clipper pattern

Haha it’s snowing now! 35

Correct, the #1 ingredient when looking for snow is cold. The track was good for this storm, and I rained. Airmass is everything

UK is trying to bring that energy down Sunday night like the GFS

Forecast for Richmond Friday A chance of snow before 1pm, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday Night Freezing rain likely before 1am, then a chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

In a vacuum, the Track is meaningless if the airmass isn’t here. With that said, plenty of cold around on guidance. I don’t hate the look tbh

UK is trending a bit warmer.

Temperatures from late week going forward are solidly below normal. BOS normal is still low to mid 40s. Here in Chicago, it’s been way below normal-Canada is frigid and it’s close to us. Carping about temperatures 5 days out seems silly. If you get a clipper redeveloping under is we’ll do ok. Besides, I’m a snow magnet and I’m heading home starting tomorrow.

10.6” just reported in Clifton Park, NY but your point still stands. Very impressive model “bust”.

Last 2hrs this band has been persistent.

Haverhill, MA Surprised with the amount of ZR. Didn't see much of a signal from the models for that, but the low surface temps this morning maybe were an indication. Back to all snow now. Hoping for an additional inch or 2

GFS brings that northern stream down but it's the only model showing that

Community Come on now we know this is coming north! It’s been a while look a cold high up north and the cold air daming wedge is in place! Hello old friend! Let’s go!!! I like December 5th and 9th especially the 9th.

Looks good

Seems like there's plenty to track if you like model watching. There's a chance of snow showers or maybe even squalls on Thursday with an arctic front then an outside chance of light snow friday and then basically a trackable wave every two days thereafter. It also looks cold at least through early next week. No slam dunks but this winter feels different so far than the past few. Snowstorm are always uncommon in these parts so we'll take what we can get.

It seems to have a stronger storm and less positively tilted trough, but also trended way south with the confluence over eastern Canada/New England

So far, no flip back to snow here. But we have way more ice than I expected from this one. Not sure how much because it's dark. But there's at least enough to have visible icicles on the power lines, and enough to flatten a mature 8' steeds holly to about half its normal height. You can hear the ice on the tree limbs when the wind blows. North facing surfaces seem to be hit the worst.

Ended up with 1.21" today. 39.52" for the year. Since the start of September, I don't think I've hit the almost 7 inches I got in a 36 hour period in June.