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looking forward to a exciting tropical season..

Nino 3.4 was 28.25C in May. The years coming off an El Nino winter that are with 0.2C of that (28.05-28.45C) are: 1958, 1969 - El Nino 2005, 2016 - La Nina conditions observed briefly 1980, 1983, 1987, 1998, 2019 are all following El Nino (ish) but either a bit too warm/cool or don't go to La Ninas. 1980, 1983, 1998, 2005, 2010, 2016 look ~correct as a blend for estimating the La Nina strength at the moment. 26.32 + 26.01 + 25.08 + 25.80 + 25.22 + 26.3 --> 25.78C in DJF Keep in mind, none of Dec-Feb periods in 3.4 have finished below 25.5C. The 2020-21 La Nina had an Oct-Dec with all three months colder than 25.5C, but it faded fast. I expect 25.8 - 26.2 for DJF, with a colder peak in Oct-Dec or Nov-Jan, but we'll see.

Will be adding "secret" link to full screen hi-rez location specific nws radar via intellicast geolocation website emulator interface.

BOS normal 73F, hit at least 75F today. It’s wild that people think this is cool for the time of year. We’ve lost touch with reality given we are used to it always being an unmitigated torch.

Please send some pics from that beautiful part of the world.

BDL’s average high right now is 77F. Today it hit at least 78F there. So today could be a tick above normal in CT, and all you seemingly talking about it’s chilly or not summer, ha. It’s not even a “cool” day relatively speaking.

I suspect that NYC is 2 or 3 weeks away from the onset of a significantly hot period.

Normally at this time of year I’d favor the EPAC because of climatology, but this setup looks to favor (using that term loosely) the Gulf. Shear looks too strong in the EPAC and the focal point of moisture is ejected from the Caribbean into the Gulf. There are some GEFS lows tucked along the Mexico coast, but the signal over the Gulf is unimpeded and far stronger, even on the EPS now. It should be underscored for the lurkers watching however—right now anything that develops is likely to be broad and weak and likely kept in check by the shear anomalies over the Gulf. Rain would be the primary concern here. I’m also intrigued by that second signal the week of the 17th but that’s way out there for now.

Don, does NYC take a warm to hot turn around June 20 and beyond?

Tomorrow will be another refreshing day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few spots could see a shower or thundershower. Through early next week, temperatures will continue to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. A warming trend will likely commence after midweek. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall. The SOI was -18.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.584 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.1° (3.1° above normal).

Looking ahead - might get our first heat wave later next week. Seeing 90+ temps Thursday onward.

Just a look at the US and Canadian ensembles, NTX is getting the most rain. Canadian OP shows little rain near/S of I-10. Sort of OT, but South Florida looks rather wet on those ensembles, with the op runs of both suggesting near/more than 1 foot next week. I suspect IMBY, any rain will come on the afternoon sea and bay breezes, although an MCS surviving from the DFW area isn't a non-zero. possibility, as they say. Early Euro suggests a bit of the trough to the E of us may pinch off and move W, that scenario would seem favorable for enhanced afternoon storms along the TX coast.

There have been almost no storm reports in the Front Range cities this year, except for the hail you guys already discussed. That is going to change today, as slight/enhanced risk is in Colorado. Severe thunderstorm watch issued. Also notable, an area of dr&&&&t showed up on the US Dr&&&&t Monitor in Fort Collins, so obviously it has been too dry there. Otherwise, the D0 value unusual dryness is not too big.

Note that the far EPAC MDR has a decent sized area near 31C with no area anywhere near that big in the nearby WCAR/GOM. That is actually at record warmth there just like the WCar/BoC have record warmth. Do you think that this being the warmest area could keep energy from concentrating enough in the WCar/GOM to form a TC?

It’s howling here. Can’t buy a sprinkle.

You just check for ticks, how hard is it? Teach your kids to check for ticks. You spray, you get complacent, nevermind killing all the bugs. By all means, take the easy way out but don't come crying when your kids get ticks anyway.

I drove by :-).

Cant post the loop of the Euro because of the file size being just too big, results are fairly similar.

Saw towering cumulus (convergence bands) early this morning moving onshore around here. So subsidence from H5 furnace High over the state now is not strong (despite lack of moisture aloft currently over the coastal region). H5 heights are just barely above 590dm around here. Pretty weak for STX standards. - - - - - Both Euro and GFS showing a fairly deep northerly M-UL flow & some notable DL shear over the state for this time of year, this upcoming week on the northeastern periphery of High moving further west-southwest again back over Mex. And, the cutoff H5 Low sitting just west of Baja. - - - - - That should cause some decent ML shortwave energy from that Low to curve east around the northern side of the High and then southeast - southward, deep into the state as the High is still projected to be pretty weak/small (still just around 590dm center) on GFS today. Which I wouldn’t doubt, all things considered lately. Euro this morning is a little more bias. Overall so far, a sig turnaround compared to June last year in 2023 when the furnace High really grew & strengthened like hell on earth by mid-month. Also, still not seeing a real strong signal on the furnace High really taking over either on ensembles the next couple of weeks. GEFS and EPS are actually starting to trend upward on Total QPF at the end of cycles over the Eastern half of state on latest runs. - - - ‘Will see how July goes with the furnace High (which normally starts to take over more then). But I’m basically calling this a “make-up” summer for 2024 now, as we also got a meandering H5 Low or wave starting to show up just east of the coastal region & some 2+ in. PWs moving over the coast (more so over SETX) on both models, after Fathers Day.

June OND Euro prog for ONI/actual ONI/RONI ’23 +2.04/+1.92/+1.49 ’22 -0.25/-0.92/-1.03 ’21 -0.30/-0.98/-1.21 ’20 -0.49/-1.27/-1.52 ’19 +0.67/+0.51/+0.24 ‘18 +1.1/+0.9/+0.8 ’17 +0.4/-0.8/-1.1 ‘16 -0.4/-0.7/-1.1 ’15 +2.4/+2.6/+2.3 ’14 +1.3/+0.6/+0.5 ’13 +0.6/-0.2/-0.2 ‘12 +1.2/+0.1/-0.1 *’11 +0.1/-1.0/-0.9 *’10 -1.0/-1.6/-1.7 *’09 +1.3/+1.0/+0.9 *’08 +0.3/-0.4/-0.4 *’07 -1.1/-1.3/-1.3 AVG +0.5/-0.1/-0.3 Analysis: - The June Euro avg miss for ONI was 0.6 too warm. - It missed too warm 16 of 17! - When there was no El Niño, it missed on avg too warm by 0.7. - When there was El Niño, it missed on avg only by +0.2. - Out of 17, biggest misses were +1.2 (‘17) and +1.1 (‘12 and ‘11) - June Euro is progging SON/OND at -0.3 (vs -0.5 in May). - Based on avg miss of +0.7 for non-Nino, bias corrected June Euro prog for OND ONI is -1.0. Based on largest miss of +1.2, OND ONI could end up as low as -1.5. Based on smallest miss for non-Nino of +0.2, OND ONI could end up as high as -0.5. - Based on the assumption that RONI, which in MAM was 0.64 cooler than ONI and has been at least 0.4 cooler than ONI for a year, will be at least 0.4 cooler than ONI in OND, this implies that bc June Euro OND RONI prog is for -1.4 or cooler. *SON instead of OND (OND N/A) Sources: Euro progs https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table Actual ONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt Actual RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

We've had this kind of look at this sort of time range in the extended... it should be a D6 by now. seems like I've seen this at this range for 5 days now -

That is some impressive forecasted movement to say the least.

A few People like this crap in the summer . It’s really unbelievable

Seriously sucks for a pool party , too many clouds, cool, umbrellas won’t stay up, leaves accumulating in the pool, meh !

Already psyched for a flip to a SE ridge and Greenland vortex just in time for ‘snow’ season!