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Living outside of the Lakes region for example like madison, the Quad Cities, Rockford. Even the western suburbs of Chicago. Would be frustrating to me to go days and sometimes several weeks without measureable snows. especially coming from SE Michigan, where lake-effect bursts and clippers usually give you something to track every week or two around you and watch the radar southern Michigan snows every other day while Madison and Rockford blue skies for 2-3 weeks in the same cold pattern that would drive me crazy and I know places like Minneapolis and Madison averages more than DTW but that’s DTW many places west and north of DTW averages much more outside the belts the Hills north of detroit averages 60” yes I know detroit sucks and big snowstorms (Erie Basin effect)

44% of the 36.3 DTW received was under 2” events.

For one winter, I want to live in Copenhagen, NY where they get around 300 inches of snow per year so I don't have to be up at 3:20 in the bloody morning chasing a g*ddamn inch of snow while half drunk. Never tell your significant other she would look better in the pink dress because the purple on makes her look like an eggplant.

It's not fog brother. Wind can often be what's transporting pollution and particulate to you. It's all relative to where the pollution, particulate, pollen radiation, etc, source region,and you are located. It also appears to me that there is an excess amount of particulate in the air for this time of year. What you're seeing in the pictures below is not moisture or mist. I'm outside every night with a headlamp. My eyes are well, trained to tell the difference between solid particles and water droples. It's not the larger particles that actually cause the respiratory issues, It's the smaller particles making the picture look grainy, and the ones you can't see, that are responsible for the majority of respiratory and analergy issues.. Cpa is also subject to what are known as oreographic pollen and or pollution showers later in the day and night as the atmosphere cools ,due to our eastern proximitie to the Appalachian mountains . Cpa can dbe a rough place for people with allergies and health problems due to air quality ,especially when the atmosphere starts to cool after those hot and warm days in the spring and fall, when the pollen and mold counts are elevated.

Climate Prediction Center - CPC adopts Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for reliable, responsive monitoring and tracking of ENSO

Yeah the moisture is def north as well.

384hr 0z GEFS Problem is where the Polar Vortex is MJO may offer some help by the 2nd week of March if it can stay amplified

Better than 0z

Slightly better than 0z

I'm inclined to agree with you regarding snow fall. One more big storm and a few more small to mid size events could really make this a very special winter in Southern New England. This week looks pretty warm the entirety into next weekend and by that I mean upper 30s to mid 40s for daytime highs and liquid precipitation

If we get shut out or close to it the rest of the way I think people are overrating this winter. Sure, the cold was remarkable in its duration and to some degree magnitude, but ultimately we only had the one big storm. That's pretty disappointing in my book. We did decent in the 12/26 event here but I know most of the subforum didn't do that well so really just the one widespread event. Had the Carolina crusher turned the corner then we could be talking about this winter being a special one but I think from a snowfall standpoint it may go down as largely forgettable.

Nothing to see

Not the 0z AIFS showing another logbook fail on the 24th (and the 0z GFS too to a degree)

Apparently it's from particulate and other pollutants getting trapped under a persistent inversion facilitated by the extremely cold air we had as of late according to the NWS.

That is just what I wanted for the sub: Deep sleet/snowpack into a deep glacier then the Bombcyclone dumping about 16 inches of fresh snow on top of the greenland-like glacier. It would have taken weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks to melt. It would have been EPIC!

Things are improving for the Sierras for the Sunday night thru Thursday storm cycle. Models now printing out at least 8 to 9 inches of pure water for much of the Sierran Cordillera. There are some areas of near 10 inches of the water. Snow to water ratios will start out at 8 to 11 to 1, then improve to 13 to 16 to 1 when the colder air gets in. You do the math. This is a very serious storm brewing, even for the Sierra. It's conceivable that quite a few Sierran communities will end up with seven or eight FEET of fresh snow by Thursday. This enormous snowpack will be blown around by very strong winds. This could be a particularly dangerous situation for travelers beginning Monday morning when snow rates will explode. People trying to walk to shelter in these conditions will be confronted by prohibitively deep snow and whiteout conditions caused by tremendous snow rates plus high winds and epic masses of blowing snow. This is no time to be trying to enjoy a holiday in the Sierran ski resorts. Mt Bachelor in Oregon is already beginning to see snow https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jF9f7hsdlJg

It’s beautiful.

yeah I even had them when its windy its total bs

So Sam Lilo did a ridiculous million winter simulation to try to quantify what Boston experienced that fabled 30 day stretch in 2015 when 90+ inches fell in 30 days. Reaching a conclusion it was a 1:26000 year event. I did similar for Harrisburg based upon 125 years data and 30,000 simulation years. Based on the analysis of the simulation data (max30_histogram_bins_0p25.csv) and the historical seasonal maxima calculated from the Harrisburg records, the Gamma Distribution remains the best-fitting mathematical model. 1. The Model: Gamma Distribution The Gamma distribution is ideal for modeling physical quantities that are always positive and exhibit a "heavy tail" (skewed towards high values), such as extreme snowfall events. Variables Defined: * x: The 30-day snowfall amount (in inches). * \alpha (Shape): Determines the fundamental shape and peak of the curve. * loc (Location): The shift/offset from zero. * \theta (Scale): Controls the "spread" or horizontal stretch of the distribution. * \Gamma(\alpha): The Gamma function (an extension of factorials for non-integers). Equation with Derived Coefficients: Using the simulation data for the fit: * * * 2. Goodness of Fit We used the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test to evaluate how well the model describes the data. A lower KS statistic (closer to 0) indicates a better fit. | Dataset | KS Statistic | P-Value | Interpretation | |---|---|---|---| | Simulation Data | 0.0155 | 1.05 \times 10^{-6} | Excellent Fit. The model follows the simulation counts almost perfectly across the entire range of values. | | Historical Observations | 0.1438 | 0.0097 | Moderate Fit. The model generalizes the history but over-predicts low-snow years and under-predicts the mid-range "typical" snowiest months. | 3. Analysis * Simulation vs. Model: The Gamma curve is a near-perfect approximation of the simulation data. It successfully captures the rapid rise in probability between 0 and 10 inches and the long, thin tail extending past 60 inches. * Historical Gap: As shown in the right-hand graph, the historical observations are more "clumped" than the model predicts. In reality, Harrisburg has a very strong peak of seasonal maxima between 15 and 25 inches. The model (derived from simulation) peaks slightly earlier (around 10 inches). * Extreme Tails: The simulation model is much "bolder" than the historical record. It suggests a non-zero probability of 30-day periods exceeding 80 inches, whereas the historical record (spanning ~126 years) has never surpassed ~51 inches. * Conclusion: The equation is a highly reliable model for the theoretical distribution of 30-day snowfall. However, if used to predict a typical winter in Harrisburg, it will slightly underestimate the "average" peak snow month while significantly overestimating the potential for unprecedented "megastorms." Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Hey Charlie, This is from yesterday from a very experienced pro met., Mike Maguire, who believes in AGW: Let me point out what is REALLY going to happen with high confidence: Fossil fuels are finite. There was only X amount of plants that died while life existed on this planet that got sequestered/buried in the ground and decomposed/concentrated into fossil fuels. At the rate that we are burning them, it won't be much longer before they start running out. BTW, all the CO2 we've been returning back into the atmosphere was there before as a beneficial gas and the building block for all of life. This scary false narrative of "CO2 is the highest its been in X zillion years" is intentionally meant to make people think there's something wrong with that, instead of receiving it as the profound gift that it's been for life on our massively greening planet. https://co2coalition.org/facts/140-million-year-trend-of-dangerously-decreasing-co2/ Anyways, back to the fact that fossil fuels will be running out with certainty and the horrific disaster that will occur to the planet and human beings when that happens, almost with certainty. We constantly hear that CO2 stays in the atmosphere for 100+ years and the carbon pollution that we are spewing into the atmosphere today, will be damaging the planet past 2100. Complete hogwash!!!!!!!!!! ————— Does anyone disagree with anything Mike said in this post? If so, what and why? He believes in AGW but feels it is net beneficial for the globe. I don’t agree with him because I have a bigger concern about sea level rise being that I’m not far from the coast and he’s a Midwesterner. But otherwise, what about his points about it continue to lead to increased greening of the planet? Also, he’s shown evidence that cold kills more than heat although I do wonder if that will eventually switch after enough warming.

Does anyone know why we've been having so many air quality alerts recently? I don't remember getting so many so often the past few months. Not a fan honestly.

Any maps? Im bored lol .

Euro slightly south. Dusting to inch for NYC with slightly more in CNJ.

Likely the last flood of the pond this winter here on Cape Cod. What a stretch of cold…snowstorm from 3 weeks ago that dropped 15” still very much OTG. Since January 24th (22 days): 19 days with high temps below 33°F 18 nights with lows below 20°F 9 nights with lows below 10°F