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Another .3 overnight, we're a snow town now in 2026

Remember the hot start?

I can see why the frustration is there but it really is only January 2. If we were in a strong EL Nino regime then I would probably be in the camp of throwing away the rest of winter, however, I don't see any strong arguments or data that can make one say with a high level of confidence the remainder of winter is cooked. Sure, December could have been better as a region given how cold it was with the constant shot of Arctic airmasses, but what's the correlation to increased snowfall and storms with Arctic airmasses? I would wager not particularly high...those airmasses are usually quite cold and dry and more often than not, any bigger storms precede the Arctic air. We are also just beginning to enter peak climo which I would presume most receive the majority of their seasonal snowfall between mid January and mid February (obviously different the farther north you go). Yeah places finished under climo in December for snow but its not like December is a massive snow month in the climo department. Whatever negative departures a location has from not meeting December snow quota can easily be made up in January. This milder pattern we're about to enter, may not be a bad thing. Let's reshuffle things up a bit and go from there. There is nothing indicating this mild stretch is something that will be prolonged.

Couldn’t agree more Don…With everything you said. January thaws are 100% a part of our climatology here in SNE…it’s pretty much guaranteed a short relaxation occurs in January at some point. And wall to wall is super rare as you point out. I mean even the record and epic season of 95-96, had all the snow incinerated away in mid January, and then we picked it right back up where we started shortly after that. Long way to go here…85-90% of the season in front of us yet.

That was a peaceful snow while it was falling last night. I had to get up and go outside for a few minutes. Even though it's only .2, with no wind and yesterday's no-melt most of the pepper on the old snow is covered. I leave a lot of plants after they go to seed and the variety of birds appreciating it this year is fantastic

Ensembles are ugly as all hell.

Excellent post Paul.

The good thing about mid January is that AN Canadian air masses often verify as BN or seasonal here. Watch as the air moves south…it often flips to BN. Of note, I didn’t think the surface maps looked terrible at all at this range. The real risk is if the EPO ridge at 500 continues to retrograde and the upcoming trough retrogrades after the 20th…leaving us with only a 7-10 day window. The GEPS ensemble at 0z shows that risk at 300. We need that retrograding pattern to pause or slow once in the right spot. Nina winters really want to put the trough in the Mountain West after January. I am gonna give things a few runs to shake out in terms of whether cold fills the trough or not. If the trough forms and the EPO holds, then cold is less of a concern for me. So with the “what could go wrong” out of the way first. Here are some things to consider. The EPS and Euro at range have struggled to see cold this winter…but generally have been good at 500 - but not infallible. That last comment is generally true for most models not named the Canadian. I have simply stopped using the GFS…It flip flops every run (or every other run) and has too many biases to account for. I like the GEM, but must account for its cold bias. The GFS is going to have to show some skill before I use it past day5. I will discuss its solutions, but it has been bad. As for AI, the jury is still out. The AIFS Euro and ensemble have had some rigor. They look good for the upcoming pattern reshuffle, but they aren’t remarkable in their scoring in my book. The AI GEFS ensemble - I don’t trust it but it looks good. So overall, let’s get this potential pattern inside of day 5. The EPO ridge setting up shop has sped up just a hair overnight. I think the EPO ridge forming is about 48 hours from locking-in as “real” on modeling. It is about 5-6 days out. Once inside of d5, I will “buy” that feature, and that goes for the rest of the features in the map. Until it sets up, I don’t think we are going to really know if the trough fills with cold, if the NAO bridges over, or if the EPO ridge holds long enough to be a force. That is a lot to juggle. I would guess (and could be wrong) that once the EPO forms that cold will fill the eastern trough IF the EPO ridge holds and doesn’t continue retrograding to Asia.

I was also thinking about that, and in New England this is spot on. Let’s roll the dice.

I’m in 100% agreement with Ray on this season’s evolution. We’re a long way from done. I’m cautiously optimistic most of NE will be in striking distance of climo (but still behind I think) by the end of February, with a decent March on the table. Just not sure it’ll be with a big event. Nobody likes to lose any time in winter on a less favorable pattern but that’s climo too. Wall to wall isn’t a thing with regularity. Not sure why some people seem to expect that each year.

IMO, there is way too much instability and hostility to have a solid idea moving past mid-month. I agree that there are times and situations where someone who is incredibly skilled at long-range forecasting can accurately nail pattern evolution and regime looking several weeks down the road...I mean there are some meteorologists who make a killing doing such forecasts for energy companies. Anyways, there is just so much at play right now and so many factors. While we have an idea of how things may unfold over the next few weeks, there are still uncertainties and low confidence in this and because of that there is no way to gauge how the pattern evolves past that because it will be highly dependent on how the next few weeks evolve. But in these situations this is where analogs can provide tremendous value but when you're dealing with the wildcards such as the stratosphere...even analogs may not work too well.

Light snow falling 16.7

For sure Don. I absolutely agree with that. But I am speaking for this current season/current month, and those pieces are not missing at the moment.,right now writing off a whole month is stupid banter plain and simple. I mean, even BAM weather points out that SPV forecasts are not very skillful/accurate, and that was a forecast on an Op run at 15 days away…certainly low skill there; which is why he uses the phrase, “ a Bit of risk to the idea of a 1/12 flip to colder weather.” That 15 day Op run could be on to something, or if could be like most Op runs at 15 days, and be junk. For sure, have to see where that goes. But of course I’d imagine, there’s the idea too, would that even be coupled to the troposphere if that indeed comes to fruition?

Beautiful night last night at Catamount skiing with my son. Some ice, but overall wonderful conditions. The coldest I saw on the car thermometer was -2 coming home. Certainly cold out there. As for those saying if it doesn’t snow it should be warm, winter sports enthusiasts strongly disagree! Although talking with some people last night, the common theme was this start is too good and we are all waiting for the shoe to drop. But so far this has been a great winter.

We need a real snowstorm lol.

Records: HIghs: EWR: 63 (1979) NYC: 68 (1876) LGA: 60 (2022) JFK: 59 (2022) Lows: EWR: 7 (1968) NYC: 2 (1918) LGA: 9 (1968) JFK: 6 (1968) Historical: 1777: George Washington retreated across the frozen mud to escape the British at Trenton and reach safe shelter in northern New Jersey. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1839: It is believed Louis Daguerre took the first daguerreotype of the moon. Unfortunately, in March of that same year, his entire laboratory burnt to the ground, destroying all his written records and much of his early experimental work–and that historical image of the moon. A year later, John William Draper, an American doctor, and chemist took his own daguerreotype of the moon. 1876: The maximum temperature for the date is 71°F. in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1897: Tornadoes in January? Two tornadoes touched down on this day. The first tornado touched down in Mooringsport, Louisiana, killing five people and injuring 21 others. The second tornado occurred at Benton, Arkansas. Although this tornado was more destructive in regards to property damage, it caused one death. 1910 - A great flood in Utah and Nevada washed out 100 miles of railroad between Salt Lake City UT and Los Angeles CA causing seven million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1918: The coldest period of the winter of 1917 and 1918 occurred from December 29th to January 4th. The temperatures for this date were a high of 13 degrees Fahrenheit and a low of +10 degrees Fahrenheit. 1941: Grand Portage, MN gets over 4.5 inches of precipitation in 24 hours. That's roughly how much normally falls there during the winter months (Nov.-Feb). (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1948: An ice storm glazed surfaces in Chicago, IL, with ½-1” ice; it was followed by 4”+ snow. Winds to 50 mph common (approx. 100 mph estimate at Glenview Naval Air Station) 11 radio station towers destroyed/damaged. 6,000 Western Union poles down; 5,500 miles of wire broken/tangled. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2010 Accord Publishing, USA) 1949: For 7 weeks, blizzard after blizzard pounded the Great Plains. Temperatures plunged to -50° in some areas. Over 200 people perished. Livestock was hard hit, with over 150,000 head of sheep killed. On this date, the worst blizzard in many years struck northern Colorado. The storm produced blizzard conditions with wind gusts up to 50 mph all day on the 3rd when temperatures stayed in the single digits. That resulted in dangerous wind chill readings from -40° to -55°. The former Stapleton Airport in Denver received 13.3 inches while downtown Denver received 11.8 inches. Snow fell for 51 straight hours in downtown Denver. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1949: A blizzard raged and brought heavy snow, strong winds, and cold temperatures to South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado, and Nebraska. 1955: Hurricane Alice passed through the Islands of Saint Martin and Saba in the Caribbean Sea on this day. Alice, which developed on December 30, 1954, is the only known Atlantic hurricane to span two calendar years. 1961 - The coldest temperature of record for the state of Hawaii was established with a reading of 14 degrees atop Haleakela Summit. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A winter storm moving up the Atlantic coast brought heavy snow and high winds to the northeastern U.S. Wind gusts reached 82 mph at Trenton NJ and Southwest Harbor in Maine. Snowfall totals ranged up to two feet at Salem NH and Waterboro ME. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - "Old Man Winter" took a siesta, with snow a scarcity across the nation. For the second day in a row Alamosa CO reported a record low of 31 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) 1989 - Strong and gusty winds prevailed along the eastern slopes of the northern and central Rockies. Winds gusted to 71 mph at Colorado Springs CO and Livingston MT. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - The first winter storm of the new year and decade developed in the southwestern U.S., and blanketed the northern mountains of Utah with 12 to 23 inches of snow. Up to 22 inches of snow was reported in the Alta-Snowbird area. The storm brought Las Vegas NV their first measurable precipitation in four and a half months, since the 17th of August. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1994 - High winds buffeted the Northern Front Range of Colorado during the morning hours. Peak wind gusts included 105 mph atop Squaw Mountain near Idaho Springs and 89 mph at Fort Collins. A fast moving "Alberta Clipper" brought up to six inches of snow to Iowa. Up to a foot of snow blanketed the Snowy Range Mountains in southeastern Wyoming. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1994: High winds buffeted the Northern Front Range of Colorado during the morning hours. Peak wind gusts included 105 mph atop Squaw Mountain near Idaho Springs and 89 mph at Fort Collins. A fast moving "Alberta Clipper" brought up to six inches of snow to Iowa. Up to a foot of snow blanketed the Snowy Range Mountains in southeastern Wyoming.(National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1999: Chicago had its greatest calendar day snowfall with a total of 18.6 inches of snow on this date. Grand Rapids, MI recorded 22 inches for their greatest snowstorm ever. Detroit, MI reported a foot of snow and Milwaukee, WI was buried under 15.4 inches; the city's biggest snowstorm in 52 years. Heavy snow of 6 to 8 inches fell across part of northeast South Dakota from the late afternoon hours of the 1st to the early morning hours on this date. Strong north winds of 15 to 30 mph combined with temperatures in the single digits generated wind chills from -25° to -40° and visibilities below 1/4 of a mile at times. Thousands of holiday travelers were stranded on planes at Detroit’s Metro Airport. Many were stuck on planes for hours when snow plows were unable to clear paths to the gates.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1999: A powerful winter storm developed over the Texas panhandle and moved northeast through the Missouri bootheel and then north northeast through eastern Illinois and into Michigan. Snow began accumulating in east-central Illinois and areas south of Chicago during the early evening hours of New Year's Day and overspread the city and north suburbs by midnight. Snow continued through the night and much of the day Saturday, January 2. The heaviest snow fell during the daytime hours Saturday and tapered off by late afternoon or early evening and ended by late evening. Northeast winds were 20 to 30 mph with a few higher gusts during the day Saturday. Winds gusted to over 50 mph along the Lake Michigan shoreline. The strong wind coming off the lake enhanced snowfall totals within about 10 miles of the lake. Snowfall was generally 9 to 15 inches over north central and east central Illinois and in the Chicago suburbs. Snowfall in Chicago and the north suburbs in Lake County was 18 to 22 inches. Winds subsided Saturday evening as the storm center passed over southern Lake Michigan. Then strong northwest winds developed Sunday, causing considerable blowing and drifting and hampering clean-up efforts. The 21.6 inches at O'hare, the official observing site for Chicago, was the second greatest storm total snowfall. The record was 23.0 inches January 26-27, 1967. Of the 21.6 inches, 18.6 fell on January 2, setting a record for the most snowfall on a calendar day. Other snowfall amounts included; Algonquin 14.0, Aurora 14.4, Barrington 18.0, Brookfield 15.1, Bourbonnais 14.0, Channahon 13.0, Chatsworth 17.0, Coal City 13.0, Compton 9.7, Crestwood 14.2, DeKalb 12.4, Dixon 16.4, Earlville 11.3, Fairbury 13.0, Geneva 13.0, Glenwood 16.0, Harvard 9.0, Lake Villa 17.9, LaGrange Park 15.0, Midway Airport 20.6, Mundelein 10.0, Naperville 11.0, Olympia Fields 15.8, Orland Park 13.8, Rochelle 9.6, Rockford 9.0, Streamwood 14.0, Willow Springs 12.0. The heavy snow and blowing snow caused hazardous travel. Lake Shore Drive was closed down for the first time ever. State, county, and local road crews worked around the clock. The City of Chicago Department of Streets and Sanitation spent 12 million dollars on snow removal efforts. Three hundred flights were canceled at O'Hare and Midway airports. 2006: Six tornadoes impacted central and northern Georgia. The tornadoes were rated from F0 to F3. 2008 - The second day of 2008 brought snow to areas of Indiana, Ohio and the Appalachians through the Northeastern United States. Parts of New England received the heaviest amounts, with some areas receiving storm totals of over 15 inches (38 cm) in several areas of central and eastern Maine. (NCDC) 2017: 36 confirmed tornadoes impacted the Deep South from Louisiana to Georgia. Many of the tornadoes came from line segments of storms known as quasi-linear convective systems. A larger convective system also created numerous wind damage reports, and in Alabama, four people died from straight-line winds.

Objectively wrong but what else is new. I'm in one of the least favorable "interior" spots in SNE and in those awful years most of my decent to higher end events came after the new year. Unless you're staring down a truly epic wall to wall blowtorch there's no reason to cancel winter anywhere in New England before January 1.

We don't need epic cold to get what we want, just get the ridge in the west and trough in the east and we will roll the dice with storm chances, GEFS and GEPS are warmer bc they pump a west coast trough again at the end of the run, while EPS has the trough in the East

Their whole cold thesis was based on it being in Canada, obviously our side. Good luck getting it back on our side any time soon, if at all. It can happen, but it's not something you want to rely on if your cold forecast is predicated on it.

You can end winter past few years before the new year and been spot on so it’s not fantasy to say especially with the upcoming pattern being as bad as it gets

Most of the time I agree with this but sometimes you do see it coming. Like last year. When you get chance after chance and fabled epic patterns that fail to produce, you can get a sense of the tenor of the season imo. And that’s not to say you can’t get nice stretches, but sometimes a season becomes irredeemable. Now that’s not to say it’s all based on vibes, sometimes you can see that a critical piece of what we need just won’t come through (read: PAC in recent years). And just because things are bad it doesn’t mean they necessarily have to get better in the same season. We’ve seen a lot of that recently. Doesn’t mean it’ll always be that way but that’s the cycle we’ve been in.

Absolutely agreed. That BAM weather is very good…as I just said in my post, January could end up not being ver good. Or it could be just fine. But we can’t know that at this moment. He says just that. He gives the risks, and says gotta see what happens the next 5 days or so. Good post.

You sure it's not you in panic mode? You are the second best person on this planet at projection

.3 down,powder everywhere. Nice and wintery outside with the Grey skies.