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  2. CoastalWx
    Well, hopefully Kevin, Will and Ray get in on it and this isn’t just a bear den CJ.
  3. dendrite
    Compare it to 00z
  4. TC ASW
    TC ASW changed their profile photo
  5. dendrite
    GFS is the extreme outlier now. I think it caves quite a bit in the next couple runs and the euro ticks another hair NW. Then the consensus all ticks a little more NW toward go time. Ukie came north a bit, but it was near Bermuda.
  6. ineedsnow
    12. UKIE kind of meh
  7. mitchnick
    Personally feel that'll be the trend in keeping with the season. How far, who knows. Still think we're all in the game, but odds do favor N & W like 80-90% of all snow chances around here.
  8. Weather Will
    WB 12Z GEFS is better for NW burbs. Some nice hits....
  9. CoastalWx
    If you look at 925 to 850 where a decent chunk of the region is like minus one C so, it could get fairly wet, especially if lift is below 700.
  10. TheClimateChanger
    Where can this data be accessed?
  11. snywx
    Agreed. That 1-2 degree difference could make a difference Initally with accumulation
  12. CoastalWx
    No, as I’ve been saying for days, this wouldn’t work or really ever work this time of year. Need to be north or inland.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Might be underdone where it remains all snow....the all snow zone isn't like 33F snow unless you're in a solution where the coastal zones and SE zones are mostly snow...otherwise, its gonna be 29-32F...so accumulation should be pretty efficient even if its a little pasty.
  14. CoastalWx
    Kraft/Epstein tiny weenie farewell here.
  15. CPcantmeasuresnow
    Not in the mid to later stages of the storm but n the beginning stages when temperatures are marginal elevation wont hurt.
  16. bwt3650
    Dumping snow since 9am .
  17. MJO812
    Exactly
  18. HoarfrostHubb
    The pivotal positive snowfall change seems useful for this one at the moment
  19. Great Snow 1717
    I wonder how often that snowfall gradient has actually taken place in the Merrimack Valley area...
  20. Terpeast
    Actually, EPS has been catching up with MJO verification in the last week or so. It did horribly when it was in phase 6, but much better once we crossed into 7.
  21. snywx
    I don’t see elevation really being a factor other than if/when the transition occurs to either rain or ZR. Latitude is gonna be the key here. At 4 days out , it’s really looking like 84 is gonna be the marker between warning level snows & nuisance event
  22. Ji
    GFS did tick south from 00z
  23. eduggs
    We don't know exactly how this event will play out yet. But even if it ends up an interior event, non-elevated NNJ through the lower Hudson Valley haven't had a decent snow event in a while. So this wouldn't really be a repeat scenario in that sense.
  24. Modfan2
    I don’t think this is far off, maybe it will tick a little further SE
  25. jlauderdal
    I like the aggressiveness, 11.7 Schaumburg would mean a big win for Downers Grove, bring it. 11.7 48 hours ago would have been a big stretch but here we are with a decent chance of hitting that number.
  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, you want latitude with a primary warming H925.....elevation doesn't do as much too mitigate that.
  27. RemoteSenses
    RemoteSenses changed their profile photo
  28. ineedsnow
    Naked snow angels here
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