All Activity

Ray, Please provide a link to the monthly WPO. Something seems off. TIA

2023 had an early late November/early December reversal??

Ahhh...okay, thanks. This makes more sense, then. Chris is probably right.

F the Celtics impressive win

I think 23-24 didn't pan out in the way we had hoped even given similar SSW styles to this past year was the SPV was just that much stronger that year so it needed quite a bit more to really knock it down. Again unfortunate but it is what it is sometimes.

We tend to box things in a lot with these oscillations which is unfortunate but understand why it is done.

Interesting....the other two early reversals were 1981 and 1968...the latter featured strong blocking throughout the season and the former had a blocky January.

AEMATT trying to take the rest of us down with them

@bluewave I was stunned to see that this past season actually averaged +WPO (.44 DJFM)...I would have bet my life that it was -WPO, but only December was. January and February were marginally +WPO, but essentially neutral. Now I feel better about my previous work connecting +WPO to the more active jet, as this makes more sense. We had more variability this season, which is why it wasn't strongly positive like previous years in recent memory...this allowed for the cold, but the +WPO in the mean continued to correlate to a more active jet, which is likely why we only saw one major coastal. The big January event was a huge SWFE.

I think what has been more intriguing to me has been the SSW formations and the results. The last two have been massive wave 1 approaches to an SSW event. While this last year can be considered an SSW it was not due to a major heat flux like we traditionally would see from these events. It was in tandem with the 500mb pattern of a slow build up of atmospheric ridging that eventually coupled, not a lot of warming was involved with this one. Sort of a bottom up approach from the typical quicker top down events. We actually had something fairly similar happen this year to what occurred in 2009 where the early SSW was disturbing the SPV and thus keeping it weaker overall at the start of the season but in 2009/10 we had a large heat flux later on in the year. That second more prominent SSW event with heat flux completely obliterated the SPV for the season leading to what we saw that year of an overly extended winter and we just so happened to have the precip aspect work in our favor. Maybe this large bubbling of Wave 1 activity giving us these SSW's is newer in the climate of a warming world but would like to see how things progress in the near future. I don't think wave 2 events are done for but it has been pretty difficult to get one to actually occur. There tends to be a lag from early season SSW events I'm not sure about the 2-3 month number but there is a lag into effects downstream from those. vtn_50_2025_merra2.pdf vtn_50_2009_merra2.pdf

This team don't let you celebrate for too long, lol Well, at least they met my bar for this month: finish around .500. Since they've done that they'll have a chance to figure some things out and get going...encouraging starts by Baz on Tuesday and Bassit today. Hope that "come to Jesus" meeting Bass said they had will bear some fruit. Consistency, consistency, consistency...ya see the flashes but it feels like somebody keeps flipping the light switch on and off!

looks decent, but a few drunks or hookah hitters say it looks May 2005 horrible

0.33" here.

Damn I'm a good forecaster in Texas. I was correct about tonight! The storm track is north. Storms and showers are tracking ENE just 20 miles north of us. Good for them. Some Texans will have a good green summer. We won't. Okay. Maybe next spring/summer.

Weekend meh. Monday and Tuesday we take. That might be optimistic beyond that

0.04" from some light rain earlier. Brings the final April total up to 7.52".

Horrible

He done. Cougars survived the Pleistocene extinctions.

Pickles has been hunting cougars for years. One finally got him last year.

Temp down to 49 degrees already

Cougars are native and are expanding their range. Wolfie is right. Wait long enough and everything will come back.

We'll add a little bit to this month's precipitation total tonight, but as of right now, South Bend has recorded 6.22" of rain in April. This makes it the 5th wettest April on record. If you combine March and April, South Bend saw 11.54" of precipitation, the 3rd most all-time for March and April combined.