All Activity

What is this F*** double front Bull*** next weekend... all weekend. Another weekend ruin when I have a baseball tournament.

In other news, 2026 has now surpassed 1983. Now, 2026 is the season that has produced the second least ACE in the satellite era. We'll see if that holds or if some late season storm ups the ACE further. In an interesting parallel, the EPAC is to date at its second highest ACE recorded in the season, but it should soon reach #1.

At the risk of contributing further to a pointless argument: Maximum sustained winds should be the most intense (sustained) winds measured anywhere in the hurricane. The strongest winds are probably going to be offshore or right on the beach. What are the odds that there's an anemometer at that exact location? Then, there's the issue that the power could be out when the highest winds hit, and of course, winds of this intensity aren't exactly gentle to meteorological equipment. The maximum sustained winds I've seen recorded with this storm on land is 92.8 mph, which is 88% of NHC's max sustained winds at landfall and is nearly Category 2 strength. That's about as good as you're gonna get since we don't have recon over land to drop a sonde over the exact point with the most intense winds. Anyways, I'm now seeing nearly 700k customers without power in the region, I hope the recovery goes smoothly

What was the actual lowest SLP at landfall ? -Lowest Destin SLP was at 8:20PM CDT per this link at ~982 mb (28.99” altimeter setting): -As this shows, winds were NNE at landfall time at Destin. That says landfall was just E of Destin. -Per Dr. Knabb per Cantore’s report of winds shifting to S off the Gulf at Miramar Beach before and during landfall time says landfall was just W of Miramar Beach. -There are 8 miles between those 2 locales. Thus, a good estimate is that landfall was 4 miles E of Destin. -How much lower than Destin’s 982 mb would SLP be 4 miles to the E? Anyone have a guess as to the gradient over those 4 miles W of the center?

Plenty of rain coming for N VA and the DMV! Its truckin!

Rain is picking up here a little. Watching radar closely because I'm sure there's plenty of tornado potential heading this way. We're still a little ways out from the remnants of the first feeder band that came ashore, but that thing had some nasty vorticities in it, and there's plenty of cold air aloft for mixing. Granted I'm sure we won't be seeing insane wind maxima, but there should be enough to see some fallen trees tomorrow AM.

73 today. was on the sound sailing when that cold front came through. Winds gusted to around 25 and it was a spectacular day for a sail.

00Z GFS just upped the ante for west of I-95

I have been here the whole time.

No, the risk is not properly conveying an adequate sense of urgency concerning a landfalling hurricane. No one but we weather dorks cares if max sustained winds occur a mile off of the beaches, but the much larger deal is if significantly higher winds and surge than anticipated were to occur.

Notice how the people now agitating the thread with anti-hurricane center posts are the same ones who were absent till landfall. They’re not worth the time to debunk.

But it does... Since the NHC puts out the advisories the media outlets run with them... This what the general public is expecting... and when it doesn't happen... it gives the general public a false sense of security with the next storm.

Catskills should do well.

Strong forecast. https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/hurricane-isaias-landfall-accurately-forecast/ Hurricane Isaias Landfall Accurately Forecast Timing Slightly too Slow The center of the rapidly degrading eye of Hurricane Isaias crossed the coast near Destin, FL with 105MPH maximum sustained winds at about 930PM EDT. This was precisely as forecast in the Final Call issued this afternoon in terms of landfall locale and intensity, but the timing was about 1.5 hours faster than 11PM EDT forecast. Although the landfall intensity needed to be adjusted upwards slightly in the Final Call issued earlier today, the Destin, FL locale was consistent since First Call on Wednesday. Final Grade: A

Check out Rogers Pass in Montana at 6700 feet. They might pile up about 33 inches of snow! https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=99&y=149&site=tfx&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=98&map_y=149

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Isaias made landfall as a 90-kt hurricane at 0130 UTC near Destin, Florida. Since that time, the radar structure of the storm has continued to degrade as strong vertical wind shear disrupts the circulation. However, Eglin AFB (KEVX) radar data and surface observations indicate damaging, gusty winds are persisting in the residual northern eyewall and in a band wrapping around the western side of the circulation. Now that the system is farther inland and losing organization, the initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory. Isaias is rapidly losing tropical characteristics, and it is forecast to become post-tropical within the next 12 h while it continues moving quickly northward through Alabama. Although the sustained surface winds associated with Isaias will quickly weaken now that the storm is inland, damaging wind gusts associated with the system are expected to extend well inland through Saturday, especially in areas of higher terrain. Because of this, the gust factors in the forecast have been slightly increased during the first 24 h. A turn toward the northeast is forecast later this weekend, bringing the center of the system into the Tennessee Valley before it dissipates. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to Suwannee, Florida where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow advice given by local officials. 2. Extremely dangerous and damaging hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect. Residents in these areas should have a safe room to ride out the storm and prepare for long-duration power outages. 3. Damaging wind gusts are likely over a large portion of the southeastern United States from western and northern Georgia and the southern Appalachians, westward over much of central and northern Alabama, southern middle Tennessee, and Mississippi, especially in areas of higher terrain. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, prepare for power outages, and be aware of the potential for falling trees. 4. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding, will be possible. Landslides are also possible across the Southern Appalachians. 5. The tornado potential will continue through tonight. The greatest risk will be east of the center, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. This risk will continue spreading north-northeast across parts of the Southeast on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 30.8N 86.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 32.7N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 11/0000Z 34.7N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 11/1200Z 36.9N 84.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 39.0N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

It snowed Christmas Eve, around here.

This storm is moving pretty quickly - That may well be the saving grace for many areas with respect to rainfall tallies. The rain is already out of the coastal areas; this storm is now all about the inland regions. It's really truckin'! I think at 18 mph!

What was expected ended up happening just a few hours late, which NHC mentioned as a risk for more intense landfall. My guess is a low end Cat 2 verified in the end. We’ll see in the AM how the damage looks. The surge I’m sure was severe but may have missed Destin just to the east so maybe a slight “win” there.