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these phase jobs are not easy to predict 5 days out - models will keep adjusting each day we get closer with new data fed into the models each day from the ever changing atmosphere - so what comes out of the models on day 6 or 7 could be many miles different in any direction by gametime - I would expect further changes in the next few days - might not even be a phase and we end up with a few rain or snow showers.......thats one possibility

Pretty bad very few members n/w

Nary a sprinkle on the Ukie either. Did we miss a hurricane hunter plane out there today? Everything looks extremely similar minus the Ais.

Ukie is a rain/snow shower maybe if that

Why are you still here tracking if we never get any notable events in late February? Why not just cross that out of the calendar each year and take a 1-2 week break?

Apple weather is terrible. I was listening to 93.7 the fan and of course one of the guys was like we are expecting 7 inches of snow this weekend. Where does apple get their weather info from...

Ideal in that regard. Let’s get one nuclear cutter to flood New England 1936 (lite) style. (I kid…I kid)

Gefs anyone??

All the models except the AIs fell right with the 12 and 18z Euro. Not like we have a whole hodge-podge of solutions tonight--they all moved in the same direction.

Winter jacket: Below 32^\circ F Light jacket: Between 32^\circ F and 50^\circ F Sweater: Between 50^\circ F and 65^\circ F Jeans & shirt: Between 65^\circ F and 80^\circ F Shorts and T-shirt: Above 80^\circ F Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

It will. After we snow.

It's 4.5 days out tbf but also still it's wild to be cliff jumping over weather. .

Hail Mary time

Gotta love all of the 00z ops following suit now

I like how everyone now knows for sure what is going to happen on Sunday. Eta- And through the end of the month now, too?

While I remain against it, this isn't over...guidance will try to rope everyone back in at some point, rest assured.

The cliff jumping for a 6 days out threat is wild .

Mediocre winter on the snow side Cold and dry don’t do anything. 3 years from now not gonna be like the winter of 25-26! lol there was recon data ingested tonight clearly sampled something it didn’t like

My first post in this thread is a reminder this is still 4-5 days away. But no one should be shocked if another nice setup 4-5 days out turns to strung out/suppressed garbage. I’m done investing in these until we get some consistency within 100 hours.

Avoiding the glue factory

He was the only one. Well Steve D slso.

ICON, GFS and CMC all dropped a big fat turd tonight. Amazing how quickly everything was coming together early today and even more quickly how things have soured tonight. Maybe they come back? One thing I've noticed - there's an additional piece of energy showing up tonight that swings through early Saturday. If that comes to fruition it's lights out. We won't have the separation needed for any trailing energy to come up and get us as the flow dampens out behind the Saturday thing.

All the models wobble back and forth 4-5 days ahead of storm. Does nobody remember multiple global models taking Boxing Day out to sea 2-4 days prior to the event? WX/PT

Lee Goldberg didn't sound optimistic about a big snowstorm at all today.

2/18 00z GGEM also a miss