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Lol. Tell the truth, you were always skeptical of the type of snow patterns that can happen up here, weren’t you?

It's salvageable because we only need models to be off by like 2C to get us back to a foot. Lot easier to get a 2C error than a .5 QPF error.

Kuch is a tad lower than HH , but we'd all still sign as depicted. taint line at 10pm sunday night cuts Lanco in 1/2, but thermals crash after and save the day. Trend is a tad warmer, but not unreasonable.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1BXdxgyNfd/?mibextid=wwXIfr Brad P’s thoughts by location.

GFS has hardly budged. Either awfully hard or going to pull a massive W.

Updated d

GFS gets criticized a lot, but where it is bad is in midrange. Within 3 days it is good. With just about every model showing similar things, I think it is more right.

GFS ingested the Baja Recon data. Instead of waiting an hour, it became impatient after about 15 minutes and ingested MORE Baja Recon Data. Amateur hour.

Isn’t it common for these big storms for sleet to change back to snow ?

I’ll take my weather app for the win.

Lock her in!!

AiGFS was colder than 18z at least at 700, fwiw

Intense and quick hitter would be fine.

Yea these models are getting much much wetter. We are about to get smacked real good. Better get that ice melt!

I have seen so many snow events that were suppose to transition to rain/mix but temps just don't rise like modeled... Shallow cold is hard to model

GFS is just as good for RVA as last run. Even a little better.

Kuchie crush job

It sure did, as expected with it sitting on its own.

Bufkit

Oh, I never trust the GFS. I know it's going to pull the football.

Temperatures may go slightly above freezing for a few hours, but quickly go below again after sunrise.... The high temperature may occur in the middle of the night....

Altoona’s never won anything, ever.

Thats just because I am a troll. I do hope the GFS scores a coup though. And I do see a slight chance this can be salvaged. We have a ton of cold in place when this kicks off.

Can you share link? Thanks!

I'm exaggerating a little. Obv the model is important, but DA is more important. It was a stupid idea to take on a DA system written in c++ and coded mainly by people outside the field. Most people in this profession are old, they aren't going to learn that shit. And it was effort and money that could've just gone into adding more ensemble members or doing an ensemble of 4dvars like the Euro. But they had to have the shiny object oriented gamer software