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3 sacks was nice tho.

Latest (0Z of Sep 15th) CFSv2 AAM forecast, which is already at a very high >+3, is like yesterday progging an off the charts extreme/historic? +4+ starting by Sep 19th (earliest in the forecast I’ve ever seen) and lasting at least through Sep 24th:

Plenty of easterly flow reducing the maxes is the main reason. It will be interesting to see if we can get a tropical connection established. Since lows often develop underneath the big highs east of New England this time of year.

Looking at Mesonet sites, Bittinger way out west dropped to 41. Nice to be one of the cold spots haha

0.70" of rain yesterday. Looking at gusty winds from the W today with highs near 70. More rain coming Friday. Looks like a general 1/2-1" rainfall across NE MN. We needed that.

mm ...not intending to be involved in any back and forth. I'm not sure that's exactly impossible just hearing the immediate binary exchange there. Heh. Given the empirical setting of Earth ..., we have to objectively be open to a notion that extreme results may be preferentially warm. That almost seems passively comedic put that way... I mean, just because of the nature of having something like a "warmest ever ENSO" taking place over top a CC canvas. Perhaps trampoline is apropos. I was just mentioning to Chris over in the ENSO thread ..the synergistic product cannot really be ascertained. *However*, the probability for that sort of thing one which side of the mean can certainly be intuitive. You and I have set up some pathways to getting a snow this year. Those are still valid. I like the hangover N. Pac idea - although the recent PDO tells me the wind biases may be changing - 'nother headache). Regardless, that's among the less likely outcomes. Given the leading and in situ circumstances the warmer one are weighted. Tough call - don't want to evacuate the probability either because patterns tend to "try" to slip or regress as a real observed phenomenon. You don't just escape and dust off hands. Doesn't work that way. So yeah... that's why I don't mind the pathway.. I could also see this year with something like a STJ that aligns farther N of canonical due to the fact that as has been papered by multiple sources...the westerly bands/jets have been moving N with the CC over recent decades. That immediately assumes a warmer southern tier.. and flooding and rains... with the band of winter shenanigans shifted

That is an awfully pathetic look. Is there a global shot for that? I wonder if much of the Arctic cold will end up being displaced on the other side of the hemisphere. Going to take some well-timed airmasses here to really have a good chance to cash in

Nice, nice baby

I'm more confident of a KU for the mid atl than I am here...the pressing of the Canadian ridge is a concern.

JAMSTEC Sept ‘26 Nino 3.4 forecast (this is NOT relative): mean is stronger than recent CFSv2 (though CFSv2 updates more recent since their updates are much more frequent) and mean cools more slowly, too, especially into Jan:

Monday through Thursday I don't have a forecast high above 70.

Plenty of 40's for lows this AM across the area with our overall chilliest morning since back on June 2nd. The coldest reading was the 42.7 at Warwick DEOS. Below normal temperatures look to continue today before we start a warming trend that peaks on Thursday before we turn cooler again for the weekend and looking ahead we see some unseasonably chilly air by early next week. Highs may not get to far above 60 degrees for some of the higher spots by next Tuesday. Our next rain chances hold off till Sunday.

Plenty of 40's for lows this AM across the area with our overall chilliest morning since back on June 2nd. The coldest reading was the 42.7 at Warwick DEOS. Below normal temperatures look to continue today before we start a warming trend that peaks on Thursday before we turn cooler again for the weekend and looking ahead we see some unseasonably chilly air by early next week. Highs may not get to far above 60 degrees for some of the higher spots by next Tuesday. Our next rain chances hold off till Sunday.

53.2 here this morning

Don't start.

He trolls. Fully expect at least 1 KU. Could be the busiest season with extremely tough forecasts.

up to a torchy 60/49

Was at URI 92 to 94 walking around was brutal. The wind and cold in 93 was constant

Not happening at this latitude.

Nah we always have that 1 October day

Yeah Chris ...I agree ...I added that exact aspect to that post

53 low. Pretty good for the lowlands. Downright pleasant.

Even single model forecasts have been missing the magnitudes of the ridges and the warmth underneath. But this is to be expected due to the much lower resolution and nature of long range forecasts beyond 15 days. In our rapidly warming climate there have been many more opportunities for the models to be biased too cold than too warm. So it’s beyond technology of present day weather forecast models to have been able to see the historic 600 dm ridge this week from beyond 5-10 days out.