All Activity

..Mid-Atlantic into southern New England... As the upper trough amplifies and the surface cyclone deepens over the northern Appalachians, low-level convergence along the attendant surface trough will increase into the morning hours, resulting in the development of low-topped convection that will quickly evolve into a squall line across western NY/PA. The northward advection of mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will result in 500 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis ahead of the line, with locally higher values approaching 1000 J/kg in spots. Some guidance members suggest that surface airmass recovery may be brief ahead of the squall line given the potential for widespread antecedent cloud cover. Still, strong tropospheric wind fields will accompany the squall line, with forecast soundings showing 50+ kt flow as low as 800-700 mb, with 35-40 kt flow contained within the boundary layer, just above the surface. Regardless of the degree of destabilization that precedes the squall line, downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft within the squall line should support strong to occasionally severe surface gusts, mostly in the 35-55 kt range. Scattered instances of tree/wire damage are expected, starting from around western PA during the late morning hours, to the East Coast around early evening.

Way too cold here

Big change with the afternoon update

30% wind added for NE MD into SE NY on 1730z SPC OTLK

It's that time of year!

No disagreement. We are definitely in an unprecedented period of hurricanes somehow missing the northeast. Though if you look at the frequency of majors it’s not that far off. Going back using sediment data to around 1000 the reoccurrence rate is about 100 years. So Carol 54 technically being the last, we are due. .

That guys has always put out crap...it was previously organic crap, now it's chemically treated with AI.

All you gotta do is look at last years…lol. Nuff said.

Fake cold always over achieves. Real cold always under-achieves

The AMO cycles 25-45 years based on the Atlantic HU activity going back to the late 19th century. We are in year 32 of the active phase, so it could end any year now. Regarding E Coast landfalls, it depends on how you look at it. If you go by major HU E Coast landfalls, events are *way* down in the last 60 years compared to the previous 60 years. See graphic attached. There has not been a major HU landfall GA to ME since Fran in 1996. And for the entire E Coast, not since Jeanne in 2004. And I would argue this is the most important stat when considering changes/trends over time b/c major HUs do a disproportional amount of impact/damage. And I know one can say, "well, what about Gulf landfalls?" That is valid statement, as those show a different trend. However, what I find far too often is that facts/data are cherry-picked, and the omission of key facts/data is really no different that lying. The point is that one needs to include all valid/relevant data when making claims for changes/trends and look over long periods of time, not hyper-focus in short-term snapshots and run w/ that as if that how it is going to be proves one point. Unfortunately, the MSM and too many on social media largely ignore this and run w/ whatever gets eyeballs/clicks/likes best, and that is gloom and doom and the end is nigh. There is a saying here, "never let the facts get in the way of a good story." For any HU landfall for a E Coast location, New England has not have one since 1991, its longest or 2nd longest gap period on record (depending on landfall definition). So it is not just anecdotal that things are not as frequent of bad for the E Coast. Actual hard data support it.

give me 60s through Novie, with spot 70s.

Sell. Save your time for Winter. Looks like an easy whiff to me

Full rundown of 12Z main global non-AI for the possible E coast storm next week excluding the not yet released Euro: The 12Z UKMET, after 3 full runs in a row with an E coast “tropical cyclone”, has no TC and not even an E coast storm as the non-tropical low forms well offshore (300 miles) and then moves out NE from there to just NW of Bermuda. 12z Icon is much further offshore than its 0Z with little E coast effect. 12Z GFS is a bit closer (similar to the 0Z) but like for the 0Z the low still is far enough out to have little effect on the E coast as it then moves out. OTOH, the 12Z CMC is its first run with effects on the E coast with it getting caught 300 miles SE of the Carolinas and then then coming back WSW to Jacksonville on 10/23. That’s now an extreme outlier pending what the 12Z Euro shows.

Full rundown of 12Z main global non-AI for the possible E coast storm next week excluding the not yet released Euro: The 12Z UKMET, after 3 full runs in a row with an E coast “tropical cyclone”, has no TC and not even an E coast storm as the non-tropical low forms well offshore (300 miles) and then moves out NE from there to just NW of Bermuda. 12z Icon is much further offshore than its 0Z with little E coast effect. 12Z GFS is a bit closer (similar to the 0Z) but like for the 0Z the low still is far enough out to have little effect on the E coast as it then moves out. OTOH, the 12Z CMC is its first run with effects on the E coast with it getting caught 300 miles SE of the Carolinas and then then coming back WSW to Jacksonville on 10/23. That’s now an extreme outlier pending that the 12Z Euro shows.

Kind of the theme since July-warm but not the warmest as that stays to our S and W

mm yeah thing is, it doesn't feel that way for us here in SNE .. maybe it's this 'blazing above normal' because the nights stay hot under cooler afternoon routine that's been going on since global warming began it seems ( ) - if that is the reason for that 'faux impression' my hunch is that we will be among the coolest relative to the whole, while still being above normal?

Seems like the early theme is in and out cold. The cold spell a week or so ago was basically one day

12z GEFS starting to pick up on it

This image is textbook AI slop. The -PDO is depicted incorrectly and the QBO oscillates back and forth every year, there's nothing unusual about it. Not to mention the state outlines are distorted. No idea who this is, but IMO it doesn't reflect well on the business and any seasoned weather enthusiast can see right through it.

Slightly off topic but looking at the drought monitor a significant chunk of the US could say the same thing.

generally agree but warm is an ez call imo

October will be another blowtorch. The whole CONUS is on fire