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Picked up a surprise inch of snow. Season total at 76.5”.

Seen a lot February’s come up lame on the snow front through the years. Not new. To get back on topic have also seen a lot of these March defo bands with these deep big cyclones surprise on the back end snow front as well through the years. Really don’t want zero windchills with 40 mph winds and a coating come Monday.

Lava being cooled down a bit. Steam bath of Kilauea I bet.

Not shocking with the MJO and teleconnections.

In their defense, Chicago did barely see an inch of snow in February…and through today. But last winter was worse…which is sad if you love snow.

The latest nws take on severe and snow. Plenty to be worked out yet ,but I get the feeling, this is all going to work out for the best or the worst, depending on how you look at it. Exciting times ahead. Monday continues to be a period of high focus, as model consensus zeroes in on the potential for significant convective development. At this early juncture, confidence is quite high on the synoptic-scale evolution (the approach of a negatively tilted upper-trough, an associated sharp cold front, and impressively strong wind fields at all levels). More uncertainty still has to be dealt with, though, in terms of smaller-scale factors, such as: exact timing of the cold frontal passage, can any breaks develop in the overcast conditions that should prevail to start the day (which would enhance instability)?, and convective mode (will any discrete cells form ahead of a probable intense squall line?). Bottom line, though, ultimately we have increasing levels of confidence in high wind producing thunderstorms Monday afternoon, with the best potential for damaging gusts near and south of I-80, as well as east of I-99. Please stay tuned for later updates over the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGE 2: Following Monday storminess, a period of sharply colder temperatures is expected through mid-week, with some snow possible Monday night, as the cold air first builds in. On Monday evening, once the surface cold front pushes through, colder air should rush in. At issue is how much steadier precipitation will linger behind the boundary. Given favorable upper jet placement and the probability that some wrap-around moisture will get steered into the Commonwealth, there is the potential for a quick 1-3" of snow in some areas Monday night, particularly over the higher terrain and northern sections of the state. Again, this will come down to smaller details, so it is advised that you stay tuned for later forecast updates

Yes, snow and cold are about the worst things that could happen IF there is widespread damage/power outages which certainly seems possible.

Monday doesn't seem overly impressive for winds...nothing out of the ordinary for these setups. Best bet would be getting a solid convective line to hold but looks like it falls apart quickly. 3km though does suggest there could be some embedded strong convection though.

You can see the huge temp gradient in Wisconsin as a result of the big snowstorm, though I wonder if it’s being overdone to an extent because it should melt relatively quickly.

I've occasionally done the 10 readings for individual storms but doing it for pack depth in a place like Maine with snow atop snow would resemble the physicist's uncertainty principle - all that tromping thru the snow affecting the depth. I place the stake at the same spot in our garden plot and stay away from it, to avoid that affecting. I suppose if one could separate the 10 spots by 50+ feet and avoid old tracks during the next measurement . . . Too complicated for me. Pack grew to 13" this morning, back to 11 now.

I was just going to post that the 12z Gfs had this. Surprised the Nam has it too.

That’ll be bad for the crews who will be out trying restore power, cutting up fallen trees, helping those with roof damage and all

New hi-res NAM expectedly cutting back on the double digit totals from 12z for NW IL

The disco is very bullish and if they mention it they likely go that way.

lol, no.

Ground is dusted, snow getting steadier. Here we go!

no.

https://x.com/JBuchinskyWX/status/2032850219423916255

@Stormchaserchuck1 do El Nino's normally form east-based and propogate west? Or this is just me on weenie hopium?

Yeah, it’s been almost as bad as last winter for N Illinois. Chicago barely saw an inch of snow in February, kind of pathetic tbh.

I just looked at the 12z guidance and timing really couldn’t be better for our area but especially for Lancaster and Lehigh valley I think we see the wind probs expanded NE next update. One of the better looking march severe threats I can remember and yes totally agree discrete supercells are not out of the picture. Also I think some places will end as snow as well. Monday afternoon and evening should be exciting. Gear up the generators especially with the wet conditions of late. edit: holy shit at the euro… it argues for a discrete threat ahead of the qlcs in the early afternoon. Ominous look.

From rushing water to pond ice to powder back to water all in a few days.

Kind of ripping under this mini band.