increasing threat of significant east coast winter storm jan 10-11

[DTWXRISK]

[Nodriveslow]

Let the games begin!

[Treckasec]

 

GIF of the CFS model. It's 300+ hours out so it will probably change.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Pattern looks good the way it is modeled, but you know how that goes. We actually need the teleconnections to verify if this threat stands any chance of verifying.

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[RedSky]

First storm window of 2016 I like it

 

Something has to give though, if I hit mid January with 0" I would be in uncharted territory, gloomy awful territory.

[Quakertown needs snow]

Happy to start the transition into a colder pattern and that opens the door for finally being able to track some snow storm potential.

[Morch Madness]

I have to say, I am a fan of this time frame. First, examining the pattern, this appears to be around where the transition to a colder second half of January will occur. The favorable combination of a -AO, +PNA and -EPO look to be present for the foreseeable future, and the NAO looks to be heading neutral or even slightly negative around this time frame. Both the GEFS and the European ensembles have shown an increase in activity from the sub-tropical jet around the 2nd week of January.

 

Tonight's 0z GFS picks up on this threat, as have the past few runs of the GFS. Obviously it's much too early to go into specifics, but it's encouraging to see models picking up on potential disturbances during this time frame, as they would have a good chance at developing into a wintry threat for this area.

 

Whether this threat comes to fruition or not, it is hard to deny the many indicators that point to the second half of January into February being a very nice look the Northeast.

[Harbourton]

I have to say, I am a fan of this time frame. First, examining the pattern, this appears to be around where the transition to a colder second half of January will occur. The favorable combination of a -AO, +PNA and -EPO look to be present for the foreseeable future, and the NAO looks to be heading neutral or even slightly negative around this time frame. Both the GEFS and the European ensembles have shown an increase in activity from the sub-tropical jet around the 2nd week of January.

 

Tonight's 0z GFS picks up on this threat, as have the past few runs of the GFS. Obviously it's much too early to go into specifics, but it's encouraging to see models picking up on potential disturbances during this time frame, as they would have a good chance at developing into a wintry threat for this area.

 

Whether this threat comes to fruition or not, it is hard to deny the many indicators that point to the second half of January into February being a very nice look the Northeast.

There is the problem of a historical El Nino that will play havoc on the global models. However the MJO transiting to Phase 8 is interesting.