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#71
hckyplayer8

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Haha i was just messin with ya. Yea lookin at the 21z SREF's that looks about the amount of wintry precip you might see with this next system. Probably will see some advisories up north and in the Pocono's for some freezing rain before it all goes over to rain. Hopefully we just get thru the system without alot of overall QPF.


Oh I know.

#72
hckyplayer8

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Look at the major +NAO on tonights run of the Euro.

You have got to be kidding me.

#73
MAG5035

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Look at the major +NAO on tonights run of the Euro.

You have got to be kidding me.


Ugh, how bout that killer vortex over AK as well.

#74
EasternUSWX

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Dr. Pepper mmmm.

#75
PottercountyWXobserver

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Ugh, how bout that killer vortex over AK as well.


don't remind me :arrowhead: . At least the Pac NW should get some much need snowfall.

#76
sauss06

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Little chilly.. 14 this am. Whats the chance of some frzn later tonight into am?

#77
pawatch

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Was just looking at our snow total for the year. 12 degrees this morning.

Season Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Season
2011-2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 - - - - - - 2.0

Well 2.0" for the season not really formatting right.

#78
EasternUSWX

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My hi quality cam is up.

greencastlewx.sixserve.net

Click on live cam link

#79
MAG5035

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Euro continuing it's weekend trolling on a more amplfied system. Snow to wintry mix event for AOO/UNV, all snow for IPT, MDT looks to be mostly rain. GFS keeps most stuff with this system south for now, and thats not a bad thing at this range haha. I seriously would keep an eye out on this system, especially our more northern folks.. as there may be just enough cold left before it gets run out in the wake of this one. Could be one of those classic finally see the snow but it melts the next day type deals.

#80
Itunis

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Euro continuing it's weekend trolling on a more amplfied system. Snow to wintry mix event for AOO/UNV, all snow for IPT, MDT looks to be mostly rain. GFS keeps most stuff with this system south for now, and thats not a bad thing at this range haha. I seriously would keep an eye out on this system, especially our more northern folks.. as there may be just enough cold left before it gets run out in the wake of this one. Could be one of those classic finally see the snow but it melts the next day type deals.


What are you thinking on possible icing tonight? We're up to above freezing but with low dewpoints we could still get below freezing for a bit with evap. cooling...but I don't see how a WWA would verify looking at how marginal this should be.

#81
PSU8315

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What are you thinking on possible icing tonight? We're up to above freezing but with low dewpoints we could still get below freezing for a bit with evap. cooling...but I don't see how a WWA would verify looking at how marginal this should be.


I'll chime in, too - I think the advisory is overkill as this is a really marginal situation. Evap. cooling will get us near the freezing mark when the precip starts to move in. That being said, there is nothing to hold the cold air here and we have a constant flow of warmer air coming up from the south, where it's in the 50s in WV. So even if this starts as a mix, it should change to rain quickly (probably within an hour for most spots). Plus, the precip is very scattered on the northern end of this, so any mix that falls should be very light.

#82
MAG5035

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I'll chime in, too - I think the advisory is overkill as this is a really marginal situation. Evap. cooling will get us near the freezing mark when the precip starts to move in. That being said, there is nothing to hold the cold air here and we have a constant flow of warmer air coming up from the south, where it's in the 50s in WV. So even if this starts as a mix, it should change to rain quickly (probably within an hour for most spots). Plus, the precip is very scattered on the northern end of this, so any mix that falls should be very light.


Yea i agree, locations further northeast might see a little bit more icing but otherwise this should be a relatively minor low QPF event. Since it's been pretty cold the last few days, you might see certain surfaces perhaps get a little bit of ice.

#83
Billabong

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I'll chime in, too - I think the advisory is overkill as this is a really marginal situation. Evap. cooling will get us near the freezing mark when the precip starts to move in. That being said, there is nothing to hold the cold air here and we have a constant flow of warmer air coming up from the south, where it's in the 50s in WV. So even if this starts as a mix, it should change to rain quickly (probably within an hour for most spots). Plus, the precip is very scattered on the northern end of this, so any mix that falls should be very light.


Exactly... looks like a few areas (especially in the NE part of the state) could get a very light glaze on trees/untreated surfaces, but not looking at anything problematic. Without an influx of colder air, feezing rain is a suicidal process. Freezing can warm the surface quite a bit (latent heat release) ending any ZR fairly quickly. Could see a couple snowflakes, or more likely IP to start though.

#84
hckyplayer8

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ARW/NMM loops are in agreement with a band or two of mix for the SRV. Then rain.

West PA looks to have a more significant onslaught of mix before the change.

NE PA are the real winners/losers will a prolong period of mix.

If anybody gets advisories, it should be that region.

#85
Billabong

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What are you thinking on possible icing tonight? We're up to above freezing but with low dewpoints we could still get below freezing for a bit with evap. cooling...but I don't see how a WWA would verify looking at how marginal this should be.


Even the slightest trace of freezing rain will qualify for an advisory. They probably issued the WWA instead of a Freezing Rain Advisory due to the potential for a hint of sn/ip to start.

#86
PSU8315

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Very surprised that the initial precip is hitting the ground. A light sleet/rain mix in Altoona right now - 35 degrees.

#87
Itunis

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Even the slightest trace of freezing rain will qualify for an advisory. They probably issued the WWA instead of a Freezing Rain Advisory due to the potential for a hint of sn/ip to start.


Ok. I know there was an event back in Atlanta last year where we got .1-.2" of ice (enough to cause issues on roads) and all that was issued was an SWS during the event. I assume the NWS didn't expect there to be icing, but I had always thought there was a threshold level to issue an advisory/warning.

Either way looks pretty insignificant. Back to watching the models for the weekend system...

#88
Itunis

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Also, UNV is at 32/16. If we get precip falling soon (which should happen if Altoona is seeing some) we could definitely dip below freezing for a bit.

#89
hckyplayer8

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Not gonna lie, the fact Seattle will have more snow thus far this winter than 95% in this thread....

:axe:

#90
Billabong

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Ok. I know there was an event back in Atlanta last year where we got .1-.2" of ice (enough to cause issues on roads) and all that was issued was an SWS during the event. I assume the NWS didn't expect there to be icing, but I had always thought there was a threshold level to issue an advisory/warning.

Either way looks pretty insignificant. Back to watching the models for the weekend system...


The thresholds for State College CWA are here. I'm not sure about that event... but it .1-.2" of ice definately meets the requirements for a FRA or a WWA if there are several precip types involved, especially in the south.


But precip is expanding nicely to our west (although bright banding is making it look more ominous than it really is). Looking at spc mesoanalysis, were probably still below freezing at most levels and could see a little accumulating snow/sleet at the start. Pavement temperature hovering around 31°F.

#91
MAG5035

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Dumping huge flakes here in Bellwood..... WINNING.

#92
Itunis

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The thresholds for State College CWA are here. I'm not sure about that event... but it .1-.2" of ice definately meets the requirements for a FRA or a WWA if there are several precip types involved, especially in the south.


But precip is expanding nicely to our west (although bright banding is making it look more ominous than it really is). Looking at spc mesoanalysis, were probably still below freezing at most levels and could see a little accumulating snow/sleet at the start. Pavement temperature hovering around 31°F.


Cool. Yeah I'm sure the event I talked about would have had an advisory if it had been forecast properly. Precip moving in to our area right now per radar, some should evaporate but there is plenty to saturate the atmosphere.

#93
Itunis

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Dumping huge flakes here in Bellwood..... WINNING.


Wow! Hopefully we get some of that here shortly.

#94
PSU8315

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Getting some wimpy snowflakes mixing in down here to go with the sleet and rain. Now sitting at 33, which is probably going to be our low.

#95
Itunis

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Getting some wimpy snowflakes mixing in down here to go with the sleet and rain. Now sitting at 33, which is probably going to be our low.

Coming down nicely now here on campus. Lots of flakes, hear some pinging too

#96
MAG5035

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Wow! Hopefully we get some of that here shortly.


If you do it won't last long haha, its over to the sleet/rain now. Did manage to get a light dusting. 3rd biggest synoptic event of the year..right behind Oct 29th with 4" and Dec 7 with a heavy dusting.

#97
Itunis

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If you do it won't last long haha, its over to the sleet/rain now. Did manage to get a light dusting. 3rd biggest synoptic event of the year..right behind Oct 29th with 4" and Dec 7 with a heavy dusting.


Rain/sleet here too. Hopefully we cool off just a bit to makes things more interesting.

#98
EasternUSWX

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hmm well trolling ftw

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#99
EasternUSWX

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Holy.. ok please one time.

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#100
hckyplayer8

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Hanging at 33F-32F. FZRA concerns prolly pretty limited here. Major roads should be warm enough from traffic/sunlight. Back roads prolly be iffy, especially in the mountains.

#101
PSU8315

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Just had a pretty good round of sleet - now 32 degrees with sleet/rain again. Pretty miserable night...

#102
canderson

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Not gonna lie, the fact Seattle will have more snow thus far this winter than 95% in this thread....

:axe:

We kicked their butt in number of days with precipitation in 2011, so it makes total sense.

#103
JamieOber

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We kicked their butt in number of days with precipitation in 2011, so it makes total sense.

We average more rain than they do. Seattle doesn't get that much rain relative to its reputation. Lots of cloudy days, but State College gets around the same.

#104
PSU8315

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We average more rain than they do. Seattle doesn't get that much rain relative to its reputation. Lots of cloudy days, but State College gets around the same.


Absolutely right - the summers can be beautiful up there. I was there years ago in August and the grass was turning brown from the lack of rain, which is pretty normal.

#105
Billabong

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Got a glaze from zr on cartops/grass. Roads are just wet.



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