1003 replies to this topic

[OHweather]

Shsg Falls, on 20 February 2012 - 02:30 PM, said:

Off topic, but GM product (just a guess)?

It is a wonderful day. Don't forget the light winds and not a cloud in the sky.

Yes, it's a 99 Lumina, probably the fuel pump as it has been acting like it's going the past few weeks.

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Active pattern looks to set up for at least the next 7-10 days. We will see several systems come through in that timeframe. We will be on the warm side of a few of these systems, but there will also be some snow chances, especially Saturday when it appears that some lake effect snow may develop. There will be a tight gradient over the northern US and we will be close to that gradient.

Euro hinting we may see a severe threat in the Plains Monday and in the Ohio Valley/lower Lakes Tuesday with a broad warm sector and good moisture return, while the GFS sets up said gradient farther south and shows a light snow event over the upper OV/lower Lakes in that same time frame. Will be fun to watch things play out over the next several days.

[Shsg Falls]

It will be interesting to see if the temperature does make it to the upper 40s this afternoon. There is a "light" dusting of snow (<0.1") here in Chagrin Falls this morning although it is slowly melting as it falls. The numerical model output from the GFS and the NWS public forecasts didn't accurately predict the intensity and persistence of the snow this morning, so perhaps the atmosphere is a bit colder than forecast. Dewpoints were in the teens this morning so there was certainly a lot of evaporational cooling.

I see KLUK (Cincinnati-Lunken) is up to 48 degrees at 11 a.m., but that warm air has a long way to advect before it gets to northeast Ohio. Also, this morning's evaporational cooling must be counteracted.

It's 34° in Chagrin at 11 a.m., hard to believe the temperature will rise 14° this afternoon with cloudy skies. Looks like the snow will stick around till at least noon.

[NEOH]

Shsg Falls, on 21 February 2012 - 11:07 AM, said:

It will be interesting to see if the temperature does make it to the upper 40s this afternoon. There is a "light" dusting of snow (<0.1") here in Chagrin Falls this morning although it is slowly melting as it falls. The numerical model output from the GFS and the NWS public forecasts didn't accurately predict the intensity and persistence of the snow this morning, so perhaps the atmosphere is a bit colder than forecast. Dewpoints were in the teens this morning so there was certainly a lot of evaporational cooling.

I see KLUK (Cincinnati-Lunken) is up to 48 degrees at 11 a.m., but that warm air has a long way to advect before it gets to northeast Ohio. Also, this morning's evaporational cooling must be counteracted.

It's 34° in Chagrin at 11 a.m., hard to believe the temperature will rise 14° this afternoon with cloudy skies. Looks like the snow will stick around till at least noon.

It's looking doubtful the temps climp into the upper 40's as forecasted. Temp dropped from 40 to 34 after the snow started earlier this morning.

[OHweather]

0.3" of snowfall today out here. All gone now, seeing some spits of drizzle.

BKL is reporting 45 with light snow this hour, I'd imagine that's melting on contact.

[NEOH]

OHweather, on 21 February 2012 - 04:16 PM, said:

0.3" of snowfall today out here. All gone now, seeing some spits of drizzle.

BKL is reporting 45 with light snow this hour, I'd imagine that's melting on contact.

I spoke too soon about the temps. Never underestimate the ease in which warm air floods Ohio.

[B-Rent]

Interesting story on Fox in Indy tonight, talking about businesses hurt by the lack of winter. The Greenfield INDOT district has a $22M surplus because of no snow removal OT.

Sent from my ADR6400L

[Trent]

OHweather, on 21 February 2012 - 04:16 PM, said:

0.3" of snowfall today out here. All gone now, seeing some spits of drizzle.

BKL is reporting 45 with light snow this hour, I'd imagine that's melting on contact.

I wasn't working downtown today, so I have no idea if there was a brief accumulation, so I'll just mark a trace. Down by 480/77 the snow literally coated the ground for maybe 20 minutes and melted as soon as it stopped snowing.

I see CLE picked up a tenth.

Exciting stuff this winter.

Temps always surge. We should be able to rack up a bit of temperature surplus the next few days, but I still think we land at 4th warmest winter for CLE. One thing that makes temps kind of screwy is that roughly a third of all days in winter have either a midnight high temperature or a 11:59 pm low temp. The daily average temp isn't necessarily indicative of that day's weather. It only takes a single arctic cold front that hits at 11:40 pm versus 12:10am to move an entire month's temperature anomaly a degree in either direction.

[Shsg Falls]

43° in Chagrin Falls was our max, 5° below the forecast.

I was in Burton today where there was still a dusting on some surfaces at dusk, and everyone was complaining about today's busted forecast.

[OHweather]

Shsg Falls, on 21 February 2012 - 08:22 PM, said:

43° in Chagrin Falls was our max, 5° below the forecast.

I was in Burton today where there was still a dusting on some surfaces at dusk, and everyone was complaining about today's busted forecast.

Instead of a cold rain it was a slightly colder coating of slop. The temps busted a few degrees but I really don't see why anyone would complain, was going to be a raw day anyways.

[Shsg Falls]

OHweather, on 21 February 2012 - 08:23 PM, said:

Instead of a cold rain it was a slightly colder coating of slop. The temps busted a few degrees but I really don't see why anyone would complain, was going to be a raw day anyways.

48° with scattered showers (forecast) turned into about 5 hours of snow with temperatures mostly in the 30s. But then again, sometimes it's fun just to complain...takes the pressure off my work!

[OHweather]

Shsg Falls, on 21 February 2012 - 08:47 PM, said:

48° with scattered showers (forecast) turned into about 5 hours of snow with temperatures mostly in the 30s. But then again, sometimes it's fun just to complain...takes the pressure off my work!

True

[NEOH]

Not a lot of certainy in the CLE AFD... except high bust potential with temps. No mention of the "storm" over the weekend.

[Trent]

Low to mid 50s anyone? Chalk up another 50 degree day this winter. It's actually been a while officially, but sad to see 50s outnumbering 20s 2 to 1 this season.

I swear when I checked the forecast this morning it said a high of 44, which seemed odd considering it didn't dip below 40 overnight.

[NEOH]

Trent, on 22 February 2012 - 02:06 PM, said:

Low to mid 50s anyone? Chalk up another 50 degree day this winter. It's actually been a while officially, but sad to see 50s outnumbering 20s 2 to 1 this season.

I swear when I checked the forecast this morning it said a high of 44, which seemed odd considering it didn't dip below 40 overnight.

I wasn't expecting sunny and 50 this afternoon. Looks like the lake breeze came onshore with temps in the low 40's now.

[NEOH]

The difference in AFD's from BUF and CLE is amazing -

CLE:
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DIFFERSOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS...THE
TRENDS ARE VERY CLOSE. BY MORNING COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES BUT LITTLE ELSE. RAIN WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO INTO THE
CENTRAL LAKES...LIFTING THE STALLED FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

BUF:
THE MODEL PROGS CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN ENVELOPE OF TRACKS WITH THE NAM FEATURING THE
STRONGEST...FASTEST...MOST NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE LOW AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST...MOST SOUTHERLY...AND WEAKEST OF THE MODELS. THE GFS IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE NAM/SREF SOLUTION...TAKING A 987MB LOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING....WITH THE CMC FEATURING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW THAT TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE ADIRONDACKS. IN
ADDITION TO HAVING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WE RECEIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...THE CMC SOLUTION WOULD ALSO KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION FOR LONGER...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WITH THE LOW. THE CMC SOLUTION IS ALSO PLAUSIBLE...AND CONSISTENT...WHICH ONLY FURTHER PROPAGATES THE CONUNDRUM. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BLEND OF THE GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS. GOING WITH THIS COMPROMISE SOLUTION...THE
SCENARIO FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS AS FOLLOWS...

[Trent]

NEOH, on 22 February 2012 - 03:19 PM, said:

I wasn't expecting sunny and 50 this afternoon. Looks like the lake breeze came onshore with temps in the low 40's now.

I actually stepped outside for a break when it came through. The nice warm spells never last long!

The Euro shows a decent snowstorm for the entire state midweek next week. Something to keep an eye on for now.

[Trent]

Odd to see snow on the ground this morning. Nickel and diming our way through winter. Will probably melt soon.

[NEOH]

It was nice to see the snow coating everything this morning with the fog around.

Even though we will be on the warm side of the storm, looks like we can count on a few inches of LES behind the storm. OH has been a wasteland for synoptic snows this year. I wonder what our snow total would be at this point without LES or lake enhanced snow.

[dta1984]

I see the 12z nam clown map is sinking south with the snow. Neo is really close , does anyone think we have a shot ?

[Trent]

NEOH, on 23 February 2012 - 09:24 AM, said:

It was nice to see the snow coating everything this morning with the fog around.

Even though we will be on the warm side of the storm, looks like we can count on a few inches of LES behind the storm. OH has been a wasteland for synoptic snows this year. I wonder what our snow total would be at this point without LES or lake enhanced snow.

Easily under 10". Also, If you remove every event under 2.5" this winter, the totals look even more ridiculous.

[Trent]

dta1984, on 23 February 2012 - 09:35 AM, said:

I see the 12z nam clown map is sinking south with the snow. Neo is really close , does anyone think we have a shot ?

There was a brief period that this was a threat for NE Ohio a few days ago. But really all we have to look forward to is a few inches of wrap around LES over the weekend. A couple more nickels to pad the seasonal total.

At least when the mid Atlantic has a 30" winter, it's through several decent snows, not a couple handfuls of daily dustings.

[NEOH]

Trent, on 23 February 2012 - 10:07 AM, said:

Easily under 10". Also, If you remove every event under 2.5" this winter, the totals look even more ridiculous.

Wow. Well, at least we did well with synoptic rain storms.

[NEOH]

Enjoy the WTOD and rain tonight. Here's what BUF is forecasting just up the shoreline in WNY - EXPECT THIS
TO BE IN THE FAIRLY NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...SOME HEAVIER SNOW WITH RATES MORE THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...AND THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

The good news is that we'll have a good fetch for lake snows... somewhere between 280 - 300. 850's aren't impressive and the winds will be strong, but all other parameters look good. At least the ground will be whitened for a day or two behind the storm.

[Trent]

NEOH, on 23 February 2012 - 04:30 PM, said:

Enjoy the WTOD and rain tonight. Here's what BUF is forecasting just up the shoreline in WNY - EXPECT THIS
TO BE IN THE FAIRLY NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...SOME HEAVIER SNOW WITH RATES MORE THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...AND THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

The good news is that we'll have a good fetch for lake snows... somewhere between 280 - 300. 850's aren't impressive and the winds will be strong, but all other parameters look good. At least the ground will be whitened for a day or two behind the storm.

Lake effect definitely bears watching. It's always the consolation prize for a missed storm. Just as well that we don't have to deal with the borderline situation that will extend from Chicago to Detroit to Toronto.

Once again it will play out on a weekend, which is nice. Perhaps there'll be something worthwhile to check out come Sunday.

edit. I also see this thread has eclipsed the 1000 post count so will probably be locked later. We can probably transition this to a Northern Ohio winter obs/discussion thread.