543 replies to this topic

[HurricaneJosh]

Rowley Shoals-- that station near the eye on the radar-- reported 73 kt from the N and 939 mb at 1 am WST. That would suggest te center passed just to the W. Pressure's rising again and the wind has shifted, so it seems the center might have passed the station. It's only reporting once an hour now, so we might have missed the best of it.

[Ed Lizard]

Eye comes and goes on IR loops, but coldest cloud tops expanding in area...

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[Superstorm93]

Decent eye

[HurricaneJosh]

The BoM has upgraded Lua to Cat 4, which means winds are at least 90 kt (10-min). Highest wind reported from Rowley Shoals was 75 kt from the WNW, about an hour after the pressure bottomed out in the high 930s.

The pressure and wind traces from that station suggest the center passed very close by around 2 am. I say this because the winds dropped to 46 kt at that time (preceded by a max of 73 kt at 1 am and followed by the later max of 75 kt at 3 am).

JTWC has it at 90 kt (1-min)-- a little more conservative.

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[HurricaneJosh]

Latest Port Hedland radar and MW imagery show a much. much better structure now:

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[HurricaneJosh]

Lua is approaching the coast and continues to intensify. The BoM now has it up to 932 mb/95 kt (10-min). The MW imagery looks pretty good. The eye is clearly visible on Port Hedland radar.

Interestingly, it looks like my chaser buddies in Pardoo might be very well-situated after all! The motion has recently trended from SE to more SSE-- and I think they might even get in the eye. Not only that-- it's an afternoon landfall. Awesome-- should see some good footage form those guys:

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[HurricaneJosh]

Good close-up shot of what looks like the W eyewall. My friends are at Pardoo-- probably somewhere near that dot on the map. It's going to be close:

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[HurricaneJosh]

Landfall!

I'm not clear on exactly where the chasers are. On the map, there's a Pardoo Roadhouse and a Pardoo Airport, and they're far apart-- the Roadhouse is nearly in the eye whereas the Airport seems to be a hair outside the eyewall-- so I'm not sure what the guys are experiencing:

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[HurricaneJosh]

Lua is moving inland.

The BoM's technical discussion put the landfall intensity at 932 mb/95 kt (10-min)-- which is a solid Cat 3 on our scale. The JTWC called it more conservatively, showing 95 kt (1-min)-- a strong Cat 2.

Either way, it's a solid cyclone with a good radar presentation. The Oz Cyclone Chasers reported "extremely violent wind" as the center passed to their E. I'm very much looking forward to seeing their video footage:

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[Ed Lizard]

Speaking of pardoo Roadhouse.

[Ed Lizard]

boomer, on 17 March 2012 - 09:06 AM, said:

Hey Worf (aka Al) be aware the chasers are fine.
Again.... what do you know about secondary eyewalls.. I think the team has captured something unique.
But I may be wrong.
Thoughts?

I suppose an eyewall replacement cycle could have been happening, but obviously Adam, as a highly paid professional, would be better able to answer the question.

[wxmx]

boomer, on 17 March 2012 - 09:06 AM, said:

Hey Worf (aka Al) be aware the chasers are fine.
Again.... what do you know about secondary eyewalls.. I think the team has captured something unique.
But I may be wrong.
Thoughts?

Probably formative stages of a concentric eyewall. It's rather common in strong cyclones, there are many cases where a very distinctive moat shows in radar/MW imagery, where wind/rain conditions are in a relative minimum close to the eyewall whereas a bit farther out you can experience a secondary maxima. This secondary maxima enhanced convection created a subsidence area around it, which is what was probably experienced.

[HurricaneJosh]

Secondary or concentric eyewalls are fairly common. Hurricane Charley displayed a very clear one-- with a defined moat separating primary and seconday eyewalls-- when it hit Florida, and chaser footage showed a period of lighter winds and brighter skies in between. But even lesser storms can have them-- like Cyclone Heidi, earlier this year: Port Hedland was inside the outer eyewall but missed the inner one.

Can't wait to see the footage from the guys!

[HurricaneJosh]

Actually, here's a small snippet of footage the guys posted on Facebook:

http://www.dailymoti...dication=109283

[HurricaneJosh]

Lua has penetrated well inland over desolate Western Australia-- yet as of this hour, it's still a Cat-1 cyclone with winds of 35 kt (10-min).

In other news, a Tropical Low that's meandering in the extreme-S Gulf of Carpentaria is expected to become a weak cyclone before moving inland.

[28storms]

The center is now over the Gulf...shouldn't have a problem becoming a Cat 1 despite its duration over water being limited.

[HurricaneJosh]

28storms, on 17 March 2012 - 11:14 PM, said:

The center is now over the Gulf...shouldn't have a problem becoming a Cat 1 despite its duration over water being limited.

Yep. It's just there kind of festering. Do you see anything interesting coming out of it?

[HurricaneJosh]

The complete operational Lua tracks from both the BoM and JTWC.

Track-wise, the cyclone was quite behaved-- took pretty-much the path that was forecast by both the BoM and the JTWC, although the BoM was a bit closer. (The models were in good agreement prior to landfall, so this is no surprise.) Intensity-wise, the BoM's bullish forecast turned out to be more accurate than the JTWC's more bearish one.

Overall, the BoM did very well with this one.

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[HurricaneJosh]

Looks like the Tropical Low in the Gulf of Carpentaria is moving ashore without development. It just couldn't pull far enough from land.

[Ed Lizard]

boomer, on 20 March 2012 - 09:48 AM, said:

Let's not talk about anything that originates in the NT... but, then again, buckets of rain and a rare tornado for Oz... 25 five house decapitated in Townsville ( while the chasers are away the weather will play).
HOWEVER... the Coral Sea is looking...... very................. tasty
Take a look.

Could you be more specific? I'm missing something in the Coral Sea...

[am19psu]

Ed Lizard, on 20 March 2012 - 10:20 AM, said:

I'm missing something in the Coral Sea...

Not for another 10 days

[HurricaneJosh]

boomer, on 26 March 2012 - 07:28 AM, said:

Here it is... do they do they Fuji?

http://www.ecmwf.int...2032600!!!step/

They're both fish, so they can do whatever the heck they want, as far as I'm concerned!

[HurricaneJosh]

In terms of interesting chase action, it looks like the season might be over. I'm just getting that vibe. We're getting into Oz's late season, and any awesomeness is becoming increasingly less likely now. Big April landfalls are rare, although there have been some very important exceptions, like the great Monica of 2006.

[am19psu]

boomer, on 1 April 2012 - 10:38 AM, said:

Just whose butt do we sniff up now? Clearly the two systems within the South Pacific do not rate.

What the hell are you babbling about now? There is nothing in the Southern Hemisphere that is remotely interesting to any of us, so that's why we're not talking about it. Post all you want about some monsoon low in the open South Pacific for all I care, but don't complain because no one else does.

[am19psu]

Here is the surface analysis for the South Pacific. The system boomer is getting his panties in a twist about is at 15S 165W. Intimidating stuff here.



By T+48, we've got a couple of cold core lows doing a binary interaction. So exciting!

[HurricaneJosh]

Boring. Why would any of us here want to talk about some crappy, half-formed low near Vanuatu? With garbage like that, the weather map might as well be clear.

It's April anyway-- the Oz season will be winding down now as we turn our sights back home.

[boomer]

Named TC Daphne, will go Cat 2 and in the meantime help add to the fatal and devastating flooding already occurring in Fiji after its recent crappy half-formed low.
As for the end of the season, there are least 16 significant recorded TCs in April.... including Monica (and that's just coastline Oz in Queensland).
In addition I understand there is something of a nice set up beginning to occur in the CS by next weekend that appears to have some favourable onshore steering.
PS: Josh if you wish to set up a thread that involves the southern hemisphere bear in mind those crappy half formed lows that only get to Cat One or Two (under BoM guidelines) have actual impact and are taken seriously.
Otherwise set up a thread that includes only Cat 3/hurricane status or above before you start bagging forum members who have an interest.

Cheers until next season... as this one is apparently over.

[HurricaneJosh]

boomer, on 2 April 2012 - 05:27 AM, said:

Named TC Daphne, will go Cat 2 and in the meantime help add to the fatal flooding already occurring in Fiji after it's recent crappy half-formed low.

JTWC keeps it as a minimal TS-- doesn't look too exciting. Anyhoo, I'm not sure what your issue is. If you find it interesting, feel free to post about it. But you can't get your panties in a bunch because others aren't into it. Live and let live!

[am19psu]

boomer, on 2 April 2012 - 05:27 AM, said:

Otherwise set up a thread that includes only Cat 3/hurricane status or above before you start bagging forum members who have an interest.

No one begrudges you for having an interest in weak systems in the South Pacific. You are welcome to post here about them. What does bother me is your insistence that everyone else care and making disparaging comments when we don't. We've had this talk about 20 times since you joined the board. I can't figure out why you have such a difficult time understanding it.

[boomer]

HurricaneJosh, on 1 April 2012 - 03:57 PM, said:

Boring. Why would any of us here want to talk about some crappy, half-formed low near Vanuatu? With garbage like that, the weather map might as well be clear.

It's April anyway-- the Oz season will be winding down now as we turn our sights back home.

PSU.... the above is not disparaging?

Agreed, I've been rapped over the knuckles before and at times with justification. But to be fair I'm not asking you or Josh to have an opinion. I'm simply putting up what is happening in the region I live. Josh makes no apologies that he doesn't care about minor systems... but he has certainly shown interest in lesser Australian mainland systems.... and that is fine. BUT, this is the only thread on this forum that discusses the region... why is it that if Josh thinks it's trivial.. then that is the view of all others (and as such are discouraged from posting)?
The reality is these two "lows" have caused more damage and death than all the other systems in the OZ region combined this season.
It has been an absolute disaster for Fiji (look up some clips). They deserved to be looked at... not trivialised.

What particularly baffles me on this occasion in regards to your post is that it's okay for others to make allegedly disparaging comments... but for others... it's not.

[am19psu]

boomer, on 2 April 2012 - 06:27 AM, said:

PSU.... the above is not disparaging?

Agreed, I've been rapped over the knuckles before and at times with justification. But to be fair I'm not asking you or Josh to have an opinion. I'm simply putting up what is happening in the region I live. Josh makes no apologies that he doesn't care about minor systems... but he has certainly shown interest in lesser Australian mainland systems.... and that is fine. BUT, this is the only thread on this forum that discusses the region... why is it that if Josh thinks it's trivial.. then that is the view of all others (and as such are discouraged from posting)?
The reality is these two "lows" have caused more damage and death than all the other systems in the OZ region combined this season.
It has been an absolute disaster for Fiji (look up some clips). They deserved to be looked at... not trivialised.

What particularly baffles me on this occasion in regards to your post is that it's okay for others to make allegedly disparaging comments... but for others... it's not.

You got ripped yesterday for making a comment about butt sniffing. Had you just posted about the system and left it at that, I wouldn't have ripped into you.

I tire of your endless posts critiquing the way people comment in these threads. It's great you have an interest in storms that affect Fiji, but no one else really does. I don't have any clients there, Josh isn't going to chase there, so unless it is a decent storm, no one on this board is going to care. Sorry the reality of the situation doesn't hold up to your ideals.

[boomer]

Fair enough. I now understand and have genuinely taken it on board.

[Srain]

LoL

[boomer]

am19psu, on 2 April 2012 - 06:32 AM, said:

You got ripped yesterday for making a comment about butt sniffing. Had you just posted about the system and left it at that, I wouldn't have ripped into you.

I tire of your endless posts critiquing the way people comment in these threads. It's great you have an interest in storms that affect Fiji, but no one else really does. I don't have any clients there, Josh isn't going to chase there, so unless it is a decent storm, no one on this board is going to care. Sorry the reality of the situation doesn't hold up to your ideals.

No Srain... I really have taken it on board. In my naivety I genuinely did not realise that the primary focus of this site (TC wise) was primarily on extreme events and financial gain. I've been incredibly dumb in thinking there was an element of altruism, and with what comes with that.... general discussion on events that do not necessarily benefit members, either intellectually or financially.... and I apologise for that.
I now... very clearly... get it.

[boomer]

Just for the record... TC Daphne did not cause the flooding in Fiji... it was the prior low (sorry but this is on the intro to the thread). Daphne is about 450km from Fiji and heading SE.