Confuzzled Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I thought his first guess on the Norlun had a lot of positives to it....anyways: I am clearly going with the last few runs of the euro and euro ensembles which have really been on a steady TREND of showing a BIGGER Low as we get closer to the event and with MORE precip. I do not know what to do with the GGEM ( canadian) and GFS models since every other run those models flip flop. In addition the GFS ensembles are clearly showing BIGGER low with more precip than the operational runs and looks more like the European model . Per : www.wxrisk.com The models did look good one run, then trended too far east then back west again and so on. But I think the SREF was the first to put out sort of a double surface low merging into a single stronger one (I could be wrong) and since then most of the models have caught on and have a similar situation occuring....... Either way it will be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nice to be in the G spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I might be a little more conservative for DCA-PHL because these Miller B transfers often involve a significant dryslot for the Mid-Atlantic, and temperatures aren't particularly cold down there so you're not going to see very high ratios if it does manage to remain all snow. This looks increasingly like a NYC-BOS storm with snowfall generally increasing as you move to the northeast, which is essentially climatology for this type of event since we're not dealing with the original Gulf Low but rather the low being reinvigorated by the northern stream and developing a separate Miller B Nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nice to be in the G spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I might be a little more conservative for DCA-PHL because these Miller B transfers often involve a significant dryslot for the Mid-Atlantic, and temperatures aren't particularly cold down there so you're not going to see very high ratios if it does manage to remain all snow. Philly has generally made out pretty well in Miller B's in the past decade. Usually take 30-50% of what NYC gets. But when NYC gets 20+ inches, that's not too bad. It's the suburbs to the west of PHL that seem to get cut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nice to be in the G spot I doubt he planned it that way, but it is funny. Philly has generally made out pretty well in Miller B's in the past decade. Usually take 30-50% of what NYC gets. But when NYC gets 20+ inches, that's not too bad. It's the suburbs to the west of PHL that seem to get cut out. Yes, and up the Susquehanna and Schuylkill River Valleys as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Southeastern disco just buzzing tonight with heavy snow reported in GA. I am getting the feeling that this is just a hair more snow than was modeled. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/8033-january-9-10-winter-storm-obs-thread/page__st__620 Naaaaaaah..............................The area of snow will weaken overnight thru Monday. I'll still get my customary half inch of snow with this Miller B. No sense at all getting my hopes up. None at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 DT issued a 1st call as opposed to a 1st guess Sunday afternoon: The G spot is still in the same location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The G spot is still in the same location Now lets see if the storm can penetrate the eastern seaboard and excite those in the G spot, I'm pretty sure a foot is enough haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I doubt he planned it that way, but it is funny. Yes, and up the Susquehanna and Schuylkill River Valleys as well. I always thought we did ok in a Miller B storm back here!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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