November 2026

[Stormlover74]

A possible turn to wetter next week?

[NEG NAO]

The surface-level weather effects from a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in the United States typically last for 2 to 6 weeks on average. [1]

While a major SSW event drastically disrupts the polar vortex high up in the stratosphere, its effects do not impact ground weather immediately. Instead, there is a 10- to 20-day time lag as the atmospheric changes ripple downward to the surface, causing the jet stream to become wavy and unstable. [1, 2, 3]

Once those effects arrive, the impacts on U.S. weather patterns include:

• Prolonged Cold Spells: Rather than a brief cold snap, the weak polar vortex patterns lock in atmospheric blocks that can extend below-average temperatures for several weeks. [1, 2]
• Increased Storminess: A wavy jet stream frequently shifts the storm track, increasing the likelihood of extreme precipitation and winter storms. [1, 2]
• Regional Variation: An SSW event does not guarantee uniform cold across the entire country. For instance, a collapsed or split polar vortex often unleashes severe cold into regions like the Northern Plains or the Midwest, while other regions like the Eastern Seaboard can occasionally experience temporary warming depending on exactly where the cold air mass migrates.

Also 2009 -2010 featured a moderate to Strong El Nino BUT not as strong as this one. Along with that there was an SSW event in mid to late November and we ended up with 12 Inches of snow in December in NYC and January we had a break and ended up with 2 inches BUT we all remember what happened in February 2010 -36 Inches of snow in NYC. So 2009-  2010 is now an analog year.

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  [1, 2, 3]

 

 

The previous expectations of a back loaded winter by many might turn into a front and back loaded winter with a break in the middle in January - time will tell

[MJO812]

Teleconnections looking good for a cold snap. That would come mid November.

[Brian5671]

Early Nov looked cold instead we are getting big warmth.   might be a case of the the cold and snow is always 10 days away?

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Early Nov looked cold instead we are getting big warmth.   might be a case of the the cold and snow is always 10 days away?

No it didnt. There is a lag and also warmth before these warming events.