Ahoff Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 Guess this should have been started. Looks like Fall is here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 On 10/2/2026 at 4:54 PM, Ahoff said: Guess this should have been started. Looks like Fall is here. Yes-it’s been a glorious few days and few more to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 Also-I’ve been reading the ENSO discussions about super El Niño and wondering how this is going to affect our winter…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted Wednesday at 01:50 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:50 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted Wednesday at 01:05 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:05 PM 11 hours ago, colonel717 said: Really mixed bag. Anything's possible, but e02 is looking good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted Wednesday at 01:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:10 PM 5 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Really mixed bag. Anything's possible, but e02 is looking good. The mean improved by 2 inches from September one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted Friday at 06:25 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:25 PM On 10/7/2026 at 9:10 AM, colonel717 said: The mean improved by 2 inches from September one. Picture of me waking up from summer hibernation getting ready to track some snow! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted Friday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:30 PM Maybe some flakes next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted Saturday at 07:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:02 PM Not going to lie, this weather has been nice though. Managed to only have the AC or heat on once in like the last 3 weeks. Tomorrow looks like a day to look forward to snow if its rainy all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted Saturday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:41 PM 2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Not going to lie, this weather has been nice though. Managed to only have the AC or heat on once in like the last 3 weeks. Tomorrow looks like a day to look forward to snow if its rainy all day. Yesssssss praying for a low electric bill coming up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted yesterday at 01:00 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:00 PM They missed on the heaviest axis of rain from Isaisas. Getting hit pretty hard right now. I wasn't expecting much .(5 -.75) for the whole thing. With the downsloping, that usually ends up with my yard getting fringed, but instead in a flood warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted yesterday at 01:12 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:12 PM 11 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: They missed on the heaviest axis of rain from Isaisas. Getting hit pretty hard right now. I wasn't expecting much .(5 -.75) for the whole thing. With the downsloping, that usually ends up with my yard getting fringed, but instead in a flood warning. Lets hope that happens with the snow this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted yesterday at 01:34 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:34 PM First lake effect next Saturday? Not buying any accumulation but could be some heavier bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 6 hours ago, colonel717 said: First lake effect next Saturday? Not buying any accumulation but could be some heavier bands. Looks like the GFS is in scenario 2s camp: The big question then becomes what will happen with a late-week system, of which, ensembles are still highly uncertain. The main driver of uncertainty is the timing and placement of a digging eastern tough. In scenario 1, the trough digs east of the area sometime Thursday thru Saturday. In this scenario, the area would be warmer than ensemble means and less unsettled. In scenario 2, the trough barrels down directly into the area with a strong cold front (favored Friday into Saturday) and potentially bring some rain, winds (approaching advisory criteria, at minimum), and even lake- enhanced snow/rain shower potential into Saturday. In scenario 3, the trough may drop to into the Midwest sometime Friday/Saturday with rain ahead of it, and bring a longer period of cool and windy conditions as the upper low struggles to rejoin the flow into next weekend. If truly maximized, scenario 2 would be the most impactful due to wind gusts risks and lake effect snow potential (2-10% probability for locations to see >= 3" of snow). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 8 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: They missed on the heaviest axis of rain from Isaisas. Getting hit pretty hard right now. I wasn't expecting much .(5 -.75) for the whole thing. With the downsloping, that usually ends up with my yard getting fringed, but instead in a flood warning. Widespread overperformer. The back edge of the heavier precip held together longer than the NWS anticipated. Although guidance showed 1.5-2.0” for the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 18 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: Widespread overperformer. The back edge of the heavier precip held together longer than the NWS anticipated. Although guidance showed 1.5-2.0” for the metro. Hopefully of sign of winter storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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