Pittsburgh Area Fall 2026

[Ahoff]

Guess this should have been started.

Looks like Fall is here.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

On 10/2/2026 at 4:54 PM, Ahoff said:

Guess this should have been started.

Looks like Fall is here.

Yes-it’s been a glorious few days and few more to come!

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

Also-I’ve been reading the ENSO discussions about super El Niño and wondering how this is going to affect our winter….

[colonel717]

[Ahoff]

11 hours ago, colonel717 said:

Really mixed bag.  Anything's possible, but e02 is looking good.

[colonel717]

5 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Really mixed bag.  Anything's possible, but e02 is looking good.

The mean improved by 2 inches from September one.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

On 10/7/2026 at 9:10 AM, colonel717 said:

The mean improved by 2 inches from September one.

Picture of me waking up from summer hibernation getting ready to track some snow!

[colonel717]

Maybe some flakes next weekend.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Not going to lie, this weather has been nice though. Managed to only have the AC or heat on once in like the last 3 weeks. Tomorrow looks like a day to look forward to snow if its rainy all day.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Not going to lie, this weather has been nice though. Managed to only have the AC or heat on once in like the last 3 weeks. Tomorrow looks like a day to look forward to snow if its rainy all day.

Yesssssss praying for a low electric bill coming up!!

[RitualOfTheTrout]

They missed on the heaviest axis of rain from Isaisas. Getting hit pretty hard right now. I wasn't expecting much  .(5 -.75) for the whole thing. With the downsloping, that usually ends up with my yard getting fringed, but instead in a flood warning.

[colonel717]

11 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

They missed on the heaviest axis of rain from Isaisas. Getting hit pretty hard right now. I wasn't expecting much  .(5 -.75) for the whole thing. With the downsloping, that usually ends up with my yard getting fringed, but instead in a flood warning.

Lets hope that happens with the snow this winter. 

[colonel717]

First lake effect next Saturday? Not buying any accumulation but could be some heavier bands. 

 

 

 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

6 hours ago, colonel717 said:

First lake effect next Saturday? Not buying any accumulation but could be some heavier bands.

Looks like the GFS is in scenario 2s camp:

The big question then becomes what will happen with a late-week
system, of which, ensembles are still highly uncertain. The main
driver of uncertainty is the timing and placement of a digging
eastern tough. In scenario 1, the trough digs east of the area
sometime Thursday thru Saturday. In this scenario, the area
would be warmer than ensemble means and less unsettled. In
scenario 2, the trough barrels down directly into the area with
a strong cold front (favored Friday into Saturday) and
potentially bring some rain, winds (approaching advisory
criteria, at minimum), and even lake- enhanced snow/rain shower
potential into Saturday. In scenario 3, the trough may drop to
into the Midwest sometime Friday/Saturday with rain ahead of it,
and bring a longer period of cool and windy conditions as the
upper low struggles to rejoin the flow into next weekend. If
truly maximized, scenario 2 would be the most impactful due to
wind gusts risks and lake effect snow potential (2-10%
probability for locations to see >= 3" of snow).

[CoraopolisWx]

8 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

They missed on the heaviest axis of rain from Isaisas. Getting hit pretty hard right now. I wasn't expecting much  .(5 -.75) for the whole thing. With the downsloping, that usually ends up with my yard getting fringed, but instead in a flood warning.

Widespread overperformer. 
The back edge of the heavier precip held together longer than the NWS anticipated. 
Although guidance showed 1.5-2.0” for the metro.