October 2026 Medium/Long Range

[dailylurker]

After the rain Sunday and a couple warm days following it looks really nice. I even see highs in the 50's late next week. Real fall color has finally started here in the lowlands (The trees at my cabin on Tug Hill are almost bare). I'm looking forward to my annual fall hikes up in Catoctins in a couple weeks. 

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

After the rain Sunday and a couple warm days following it looks really nice. I even see highs in the 50's late next week. Real fall color has finally started here in the lowlands (The trees at my cabin on Tug Hill are almost bare). I'm looking forward to my annual fall hikes up in Catoctins in a couple weeks. 

In January, 1979, several of us hiked up to Chimney Rock. I remember I brought a thermometer with me.  It was 21 at the top. I specifically recall lamenting while up there about the lack of snow that winter despite the cold. Little did I know that a week or so later we would have 3 snowstorms in a row starting the end of January and culminating with PDI. Oh the memories of a weenie.

[Benjamn3]

50 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

In January, 1979, several of us hiked up to Chimney Rock. I remember I brought a thermometer with me.  It was 21 at the top. I specifically recall lamenting while up there about the lack of snow that winter despite the cold. Little did I know that a week or so later we would have 3 snowstorms in a row starting the end of January and culminating with PDI. Oh the memories of a weenie.

I remember doing a similar thing here in VA. I was cutting shooting lanes before deer season in mid September 2009 a little late for that but I was 20 and stupid lol. I was fussing about the lack of cold and snow, during fall and winter. Though I was also glad because I had just enlisted in The Marines, and it gave me some more time to train before I got to Paris Island in March…and we all know how 09-10 went. Haha 

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

In January, 1979, several of us hiked up to Chimney Rock. I remember I brought a thermometer with me.  It was 21 at the top. I specifically recall lamenting while up there about the lack of snow that winter despite the cold. Little did I know that a week or so later we would have 3 snowstorms in a row starting the end of January and culminating with PDI. Oh the memories of a weenie.

I was up there in January, 2025 when It was -5 with about 10" on the ground. It was awesome. 

[WxUSAF]

Definite first freeze potential D10-11 on several runs today for NW burbs and IAD

[soadforecasterx]

This looks like the type of scenario I can see playing out this winter.  A Close race between a cold shot and a big storm.