Tropical Depression Five

[NorthHillsWx]

One other thing about this system that lends to the idea of it becoming a TS is frictional convergence and the shape of the coastline. This area of coastline is well known for tightening up weak systems on approach. To me this is a lock for our 5th short lived TS…

[SnowenOutThere]

Think it looks pretty good to become a TS if it becomes strong enough. It has some surprisingly nice outflow to its south with a good level of anticyclonic spin aloft. Honestly, the limited convection makes it a good study of the cyclonic surface vs anticyclone aloft. 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET and other global probably are of little value due to how tiny system is. But fwiw and for the record:

12Z UKMET initializes this as a TD:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3N 91.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2026 0 28.3N 91.0W 1013 20
0000UTC 01.09.2026 12 27.9N 92.2W 1012 19
1200UTC 01.09.2026 24 29.2N 93.5W 1012 20
0000UTC 02.09.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

[WxWatcher007]

The radar presentation has improved quite a bit in the last few hours. We’ll see if it can develop an inner core quickly. If so, the ceiling rises substantially. 18z hurricane guidance now that there’s recon data on a defined center should be useful.