Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread

[jaxjagman]

Been a rough month here,broke the record for the driest Sept,notta thing here,tied the record daily highs with 2019...93.2F

Made a run at overall temp record,1925 avg, was 81.5,this Sept was 81.1

[nrgjeff]

Drought monitor shows the flash drought which resulted from that crappy Sept.

Oh it just keeps getting better! ECMWF has a cool bias. Count on warmer verification than the weeklies show. Much warmer than the CFS. This package I favor the lowly GEFS weeklies - which are warm. EC is clearly off track below.

After 10 days or so of +PNA (cooler SE) the out of phase PDO is gonna catch up. I expect many busts this winter as temps verify warmer than 6-15 day forecasts. Super Nino is just going to flood the Atmo warm. Even if it's warm out West it'll be difficult to cool off the Southeast with neutral to slightly BN heights. 

[jaxjagman]

Least we have a re-curving phoon the next couple days with a trough going through East Asia,we should possibly see temps drop into the 40's around mid month  LOWS,after that not very exciting seeing another seemingly strong WWB upcoming

[John1122]

It's been a real soaker this evening. I'm sitting in my car at halftime of a high school football game since the band was unable to even play. 

[John1122]

It rained an inch here between 7 and 9:30ish. So the low models for the weekend busted already. 

[jaxjagman]

14 hours ago, John1122 said:

It rained an inch here between 7 and 9:30ish. So the low models for the weekend busted already. 

Do you never not get rain?..lol.

 

[John1122]

3 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Do you never not get rain?..lol.

 

Yes, I have had some pretty dry weather here this year but last night it poured from 7:30 to 10ish then it rained another half inch overnight. 

I do average 60+ inches of rain a year though. 

 

[Daniel Boone]

On 10/2/2026 at 11:45 AM, nrgjeff said:

Drought monitor shows the flash drought which resulted from that crappy Sept.

Oh it just keeps getting better! ECMWF has a cool bias. Count on warmer verification than the weeklies show. Much warmer than the CFS. This package I favor the lowly GEFS weeklies - which are warm. EC is clearly off track below.

After 10 days or so of +PNA (cooler SE) the out of phase PDO is gonna catch up. I expect many busts this winter as temps verify warmer than 6-15 day forecasts. Super Nino is just going to flood the Atmo warm. Even if it's warm out West it'll be difficult to cool off the Southeast with neutral to slightly BN heights. 

Without help from the NAO we probably are cooked. May be ample severe wx and flooding threats this Winter.

[jaxjagman]

16 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Without help from the NAO we probably are cooked. May be ample severe wx and flooding threats this Winter.

You could be right.Hardeman Co in TN had  had a EF4 right before Christmas 2015, which tracked from MS,so regardless you can never say never.But in still 2015 was a well pronounced Central based NINO compared to this year,most of the severe should be further towards the Gulf states and not into our region this winter