Global Average Temperature 2026

[donsutherland1]

Highest daily values for each month and highest monthly and seasonal averages on ERA-5:

[Typhoon Tip]

[bluewave]

Interesting timing of the release date on this new study since we could at least see our first monthly global temperatures near +2°C.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10237-9

1. nature  
2. articles  
3. article

• Article
• Open access
• Published: 25 March 2026

Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes

Effectively communicating worst-case projections of global future climate—hereinafter referred to as worst-case climate outcomes—is essential for risk assessment and developing robust adaptation strategies to global warming^{1,2,3,4,5,6,7}. Yet, current approaches for identifying spatially consistent climate outcomes are limited, with worst-case global climates typically communicated via the average of climate model projections at high global warming levels, such as 3 °C or 4 °C above the preindustrial era^8,9. Here we show that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming for several sectors. For droughts in global key breadbasket regions, precipitation extremes over highly populated areas and fire weather extremes across forests, global climatic impact-drivers at 2 °C of global warming may turn out to be much more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming. We derive these results by identifying sector-specific, spatially consistent potential high- and low-impact global climate outcomes through spatially averaging projected sector-relevant climatic impact-drivers across key global regions. Our approach can easily be adapted to a wide range of sectors to support the improvement of sector-specific climate risk assessment and to inform climate policy. As global warming approaches 1.5 °C (ref. ¹⁰), these findings underscore the urgency of rapid mitigation to limit warming well below 2 °C, as even a 2 °C world may entail severe impacts.

[chubbs]

Globally September will end up cooler than August, due to a cool Southern Hemisphere paced by Antarctica. In strong contrast to September 2023 when a very warm Antarctica contributed significantly to "gobsmacking" warmth.

[chubbs]

Global satellite sea surface temperatures including September. This years nino spike is similar in magnitude to 2023. This September is 0.15C warmer than Sept 2023 and 0.14C warmer than the peak in Jan 2024.