2026-2027 Super El Nino

[EasternLI]

I think we'll see a pretty darn robust STJ, eventually. Remember there's some resistance in the pacific with the -PDO too. That's a battle royale there IMO but I think the sheer magnitude of this el nino overwhelms it. But it's going to take some time to do that. Aifs-ens would suggest we see it start to fire up a little bit towards mid Aug. Will be interesting to see if that's accurate and if it starts to ramp up more as we move towards autumn. If we see that, I'd feel more confident. 

 

As far as the QBO is concerned. That's an area of ongoing research. Which has been noticed more and more as an important factor in various areas. So it has been gaining more and more interest. Here's some newer work that also included the Pacific jet. The image below is actually a cross section of the jet in late winter. Same conclusion. El nino + WQBO is the combo for the strongest jet. ERA5 data in top row model runs in the rows underneath. 

 

QBOi El Niño–Southern Oscillation experiments: teleconnections of the QBO

https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/1419/2025/

 

Quote

In the subtropics, the QBO has a direct influence on the subtropical jet through its secondary circulation. Observational studies have indicated that the QBO can affect the subtropical jet variability, particularly in the Pacific sector (e.g. Garfinkel and Hartmann, 2011a, b). During QBO-W, a horseshoe-shaped zonal wind anomaly forms in the UTLS associated with an equatorward shift of the Asian-Pacific jet (APJ) (Crooks and Gray, 2005; Simpson et al., 2009) This response is evident even near the surface over East Asian (Park et al., 2022; Park and Son, 2022).

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I was just mentioning that your analog composite of <-60dm for DJFM is probably too low. I used 6 straight months of -PNA as an example. That doesn't mean I expect the PNA to be negative, just that there are competing forces right now. 

I understand all of that....and I have tried to explain to you that you are taking that composite far too literally....it's not a forecast composite....it does't even incorporate the extra tropical Pacific.  It's literally just a composite derived from solar, QBO and ENSO data, as that is how I assess the polar fields.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

I think we'll see a pretty darn robust STJ, eventually. Remember there's some resistance in the pacific with the -PDO too. That's a battle royale there IMO but I think the sheer magnitude of this el nino overwhelms it. But it's going to take some time to do that. Aifs-ens would suggest we see it start to fire up a little bit towards mid Aug. Will be interesting to see if that's accurate and if it starts to ramp up more as we move towards autumn. If we see that, I'd feel more confident. 

 

As far as the QBO is concerned. That's an area of ongoing research. Which has been noticed more and more as an important factor in various areas. So it has been gaining more and more interest. Here's some newer work that also included the Pacific jet. The image below is actually a cross section of the jet in late winter. Same conclusion. El nino + WQBO is the combo for the strongest jet. ERA5 data in top row model runs in the rows underneath. 

 

QBOi El Niño–Southern Oscillation experiments: teleconnections of the QBO

https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/1419/2025/

 

 

QBO is a great forecasting tool....I've been killing it the past couple years integrating the QBO with solar cycle.