2026-2027 Super El Nino

[roardog]

42 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Holy Moses! That has relative 3.4’s latest weekly averaged value way up at +1.94 vs NOAA’s +1.4! What the??

That's actually frustrating. How hard is it in 2026 to be able to accurately measure what the RONI is? Is it because NOAA has a different way to measure RONI VS ONI or is it the actual water temperatures that are off between the two organizations? 0.5 is a huge difference.

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, roardog said:

That's actually frustrating. How hard is it in 2026 to be able to accurately measure what the RONI is? Is it because NOAA has a different way to measure RONI VS ONI or is it the actual water temperatures that are off between the two organizations? 0.5 is a huge difference.

Well, as the comparison to cyclonicwx RONI graphs have been showing, NOAA seems like it could be 0.3C too low. Regardless, BoA does seem a bit high. I just figured out that they're very likely using the warm biased (by ~0.2C) Coral Reef Watch SSTs instead of OISST, which is ~0.2C cooler than CRW:

CRW: was ~+1.94 for the avg of the week ending 7/26/26…so that almost has to be the reason:

The average of the 2 may be closest to reality. 
 

@snowman19