2026-2027 Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Which, according to Usetobe (retired met from LWX), is exactly where we want it (just east of the DL)  come winter. Can the mean forcing hold there come winter is, course, the question. We'll see.

It will probably shift eastward more, but just that the fact that it's made it there is very remarkable given what has taken place over the past 10 years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone have any insight as to if/when they are every going to calculate the QBO again? It hasn't updated since February and with each passing month it gets more difficult to select analogs with any degree of specificity. I wish they would just use the ERA 5 data base....

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone have any insight as to if/when they are every going to calculate the QBO again? It hasn't updated since February and with each passing month it gets more difficult to select analogs with any degree of specificity. I wish they would just use the ERA 5 data base....

This is the latest RAOB update, the +QBO is still descending, now down to 40mb



In other news, the +IOD gets going soon
 
 

 

 

And the ++PMM continues


@Gawx Has there ever been an El Niño event that saw the 30C isotherm end up east of the dateline? I know 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2015 didn’t do it….

 

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is the latest RAOB update, the +QBO is still descending, now down to 40mb



In other news, the +IOD gets going soon

 

 

And the ++PMM continues

 

 

I know the QBO will be positive...just looking for monthly numbers.

[GaWx]

 The latest CFS (10 days of runs ens. mean) is at the highest of any I’ve saved with relative peaks way up at ~3.4 (Nov) and nearly 3.25 (SON and OND)! The record highest since 1950 are well below these:

1 month: 2.69 (Jan 1983), 2.56 (Dec 1982), 2.48 (Nov 2015), 2.44 (Oct 1997), and 2.43 (Nov 1997) 

3 month: 2.52 (NDJ 1982-3), 2.49 (DJF 1982-3), 2.43 (OND 1982), 2.38 (SON 1997), and 2.37 (NDJ 2015-6)

 The most rapid monthly rates of warming of the mean is from July’s ~1.46 to Aug’s ~2.30, a warming of ~0.84, followed by a warming of ~0.70 from Aug’s ~2.30 to Sep’s ~3.00. So, the progged CFS rate of warming from July to Sep of ~1.54 will be the key period to see if the progged peak is actually going to verify closely. The record fastest 2 month warming is only ~1.3 (Nov 1954-Jan 1955 and Aug-Oct 1982).

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 Note that they still show near record breaking rates of cooling Dec-Mar after these record shattering peaks with a mean plunge from Dec’s ~2.95 to Jan’s ~2.16 to Feb’s ~1.6 to Mar’s ~0.9. That 3 month progged cooling of ~2.05 Dec to Mar would be similar to the record rate of cooling for Dec to Mar of 1972-3, which was 1.87.