2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[roardog]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Definitely more of a La Niña flavor with the forcing moving from the IO into the WPAC.

Places like Manchester, New Hampshire tied their all-time May high temperature. So a first for such a strong developing El Niño.

You will notice how the previous years occurred during developing La Niña summers after El Niño winters. Plus following La Niña winters continuing into the next year.

Earlier in May was more of Nino-like pattern with a stronger +PNA and trough in the East. So a continuation of mixed influences with the developing super El Niño and record warm pool from the IO to WPAC. 

Long range models missed this record warm up and tropical convection moving from the IO into WPAC leading to a very strong Southeast ridge.
 

Time Series Summary for Manchester Area, NH (ThreadEx) - Month of May Highest Maximum Temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2026	97	Developing Super El Niño
-	2010	97	Developing La Niña
2	1941	96	Multiyear Strong El Niño start in 1940
3	2022	95	Multiyear La Nina
4	2021	94	Multiyear La Niña
-	2017	94	Multiyear La Nina
-	2016	94	Developing La Nina
-	2013	94	Neutral
-	2007	94	Developing La Niña
-	1889	94	Developing La Niña
5	2024	93	Developing La Niña
-	2018	93	Uncoupled El Niño after La Niña

This is what I’ve been saying but apparently twitter doesn’t agree according to snowman’s posts.