2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[snowman19]

This coming high amplitude MJO push into the PAC as we go into late month, coupled with an ERW is going to cause another massive WWB and a continued strengthening of this El Niño into June. A super El Niño is inevitable at this point and very likely a top 3 super event

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Per RONI Nino 3.4, no Super El Nino was ever this low in mid-May. Might be Super per ONI and Strong, RONI. 

[snowman19]

Per RONI Nino 3.4, no Super El Nino was ever this low in mid-May. Might be Super per ONI and Strong, RONI. 

We disagree but that’s what this forum is for…sharing different opinions. I think this El Nino’s RONI breaks the all time RONI record from 1982-83 and also ends up breaking the record traditional ONI since 1950

[bluewave]

No surprise that the El Nino is beginning to couple with a westward lean close to the +30C warm pool. 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

EPS Days 11-15 looks nothing like May El Nino in the Pacific

We may be running back 23-24 as far as the Pacific pattern goes

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^That EPS Days 11-15 looks nothing like May El Nino in the Pacific

The westward lean is closer to the +ENSO MJO 7 composite with the ridge from coast to coast. But notice how the troughs are weaker in the coming forecast near the Aleutians and Baja.

Similar to the weak La Niña this past winter when the ridge out West was stronger than the trough in the East.

While it may be too early to draw conclusions about next winter, this would result in a weaker Aleutian Low and possibly a weaker low in the Southeast like we saw in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 relative to 1997-1998 and 1982-1983.