2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You might be surprised what a Super El Nino can produce pattern wise in the Winter,, an event that isn't totally east-based allows the GOA low/+EPO to disconnect a bit. A lot of warm bias from limited examples. I think there are some really cold Strong Nino's in the 1895-1948 dataset, or at least very warm Strong Nina's (counter-examples)

Here's one.. strong -SOI in the Winter of 1911-12

Another strong -SOI Winter

1911-12 and 1914-15 were super El Ninos? 
 

Edit: Nevermind, just saw @GaWx post about 1977-78, they were all weak to low-end moderate Ninos

[winter_warlock]

I believe the last real super elnino was 1998-99 and that didn't result in a snowy winter for mid Atlantic.  But the strong elnino of 82-83 Did give us a snowy winter. Soo.  Sort of a crap shoot to see what we get this coming winter. But hurricane activity should be less this summer. In my opinion 

[GaWx]

 Based on this week’s dailies, I predict that the Mon 3.4 RONI release will be the same (+0.4) or up 0.1.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

I believe the last real super elnino was 1998-99 and that didn't result in a snowy winter for mid Atlantic.  But the strong elnino of 82-83 Did give us a snowy winter. Soo.  Sort of a crap shoot to see what we get this coming winter. But hurricane activity should be less this summer. In my opinion 

1998-99 was the first year of a double-year strong la nina. 1997-98 was the super el nino year, and yes, that one was a record low snow year.

1982-83 was a classic backloaded el nino winter, with the blizzard in February and late freeze/snow event on April 19-20.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Chuck’s clearly referring to the strong -SOI of these two. I can add the even stronger -SOI of 1977-8:
 But keep in mind that these 3’s ONI peaks were only +0.8 to +1.2 per Webb or only weak to low end moderate:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

I just don't know how reliable ENSO SST data from before 1948 is.. I know we kept a meticulous record of SOI though. Point is, I think this one is developing with ENSO forcing further west than the classic Strong Nino's of 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, so the corresponding pattern in the N. Pacific may be different - instead of so much NPH impact, there may be some movement of the PNA. It seems easy to call the temp composite warm because 6/6 Strong Nino's are, but besides the 80-85% chance that we have of having a +departure every month these days, I'm not so sure there is a warm signal in the mean for the East coast, US for the Winter, besides the +NAO probability (decadally and +2 years after Solar Max). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yeah there's some interesting stuff in the dataset. I believe the warm winter of 1949-50 was a strong Nina.

The 1895-1950 composite has some very warm Strong Nina Winter's. Since the dataset is somewhat small, flip that signal around for Strong Nino's unless it is based way more east... 

Here on the EC you don't call Strong La Nina's and Strong El Nino's both warm, if they are both based in Nino 3.4. People fall in the trap of looking solely at analogs, and imo this El Nino is developing a bit different (forcing west) vs previous Super Nino's. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Based on this week’s dailies, I predict that the Mon 3.4 RONI release will be the same (+0.4) or up 0.1.

Not even in Weak Nino threshold in almost mid May.. RONI has some ground to cover if this is going to be Super

57-58, +2.0 peak was +1.1 in May

65-66, +2.0 peak was +0.6 in May

72-73, +2.3 peak was +0.9 in May

82-83, +2.5 peak was +0.8 in May

91-92, +2.3 peak was +0.5 in May *closest analog

97-98, +2.4 peak was +1.0 in May

15-16, +2.4 peak was +0.8 in May

[snowman19]

Here comes the next big WWB and DWKW. It’s also going to spark off TC’s

[snowman19]

A classic east-based event is unfolding as the Kelvin Wave begins to surface at the coast of South America along with the associated thermocline/sea level response

^ “Sea Level and Equatorial Waves

09-May. In the context of the precursor signals of El Niño, a Kelvin wave has begun to arrive at the coasts of Ecuador. Among its first effects are the rise in sea level (20 cm), deepening of the thermocline... “

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Yeah, we now have >+6c on TAO/Triton below Nino 1+2, which is the highest of the event so far

This is as the 1st Kelvin wave is far east though.. I don't know that the mean doesn't happen further west. I'm thinking basin-wide like 15-16. (I guess technically it's the 2nd Kelvin wave as the first one happened mid-Winter.)

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I just don't know how reliable ENSO SST data from before 1948 is.. I know we kept a meticulous record of SOI though. Point is, I think this one is developing with ENSO forcing further west than the classic Strong Nino's of 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, so the corresponding pattern in the N. Pacific may be different - instead of so much NPH impact, there may be some movement of the PNA. It seems easy to call the temp composite warm because 6/6 Strong Nino's are, but besides the 80-85% chance that we have of having a +departure every month these days, I'm not so sure there is a warm signal in the mean for the East coast, US for the Winter, besides the +NAO probability (decadally and +2 years after Solar Max). 

 Indeed, pre-1948 were largely reconstructed but Webb’s table as well as JMA (which calculates them a bit differently) both also have 1877-8 and 1888-9 as super Ninos and many assume they really were without questioning them. His table has 1911-2 peaking only at +1.2 and 1914-5 only at +0.9, both way lower than 1877-8 and 1888-9. JMA has 1911-12 slightly stronger but still only at +1.3. It has 1914-5 at only +0.5. So, the odds are high that 1911-2 and even more-so that 1914-5 weren’t super Ninos.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Indeed, pre-1950 were largely reconstructed but Webb’s table as well as JMA (which calculates them a bit differently) both also have 1877-8 and 1888-9 as super Ninos and many assume they really were without questioning them. His table has 1911-2 peaking only at +1.2 and 1914-5 only at +0.9, both way lower than 1877-8 and 1888-9. JMA has 1911-12 slightly stronger but still only at +1.3. It has 1914-5 at only +0.5. So, the odds are high that 1911-2 and especially 1914-5 weren’t super Ninos.

Ok, I was just basing it on the SOI. I'm sure those reconstructed events aren't too far off though. Still a point though, that the opposite of Strong La Nina's is not matching Strong El Nino's.. relatively small number of samples. they are both anomalies of the same thing so should reverse each other. I think filter out the NAO and extreme-east based events and Strong Nino's aren't as warm in the East in the Winter as people think. 

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Ok, I was just basing it on the SOI. I'm sure those reconstructed events aren't too far off though. Still a point though, that the opposite of Strong La Nina's is not matching Strong El Nino's.. relatively small number of samples. they are both anomalies of the same thing so should reverse each other. I think filter out the NAO and extreme-east based events and Strong Nino's aren't as warm in the East in the Winter as people think. 

Points taken, Chuck. Thank you. And further south down in the SE only 2015-6 averaged downright mild due to Dec. The others were pretty close to normal or even cold if you were to include 1957-8 and 1965-6.

[snowman19]