2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You might be surprised what a Super El Nino can produce pattern wise in the Winter,, an event that isn't totally east-based allows the GOA low/+EPO to disconnect a bit. A lot of warm bias from limited examples. I think there are some really cold Strong Nino's in the 1895-1948 dataset, or at least very warm Strong Nina's (counter-examples)

Here's one.. strong -SOI in the Winter of 1911-12

Another strong -SOI Winter

1911-12 and 1914-15 were super El Ninos? 
 

Edit: Nevermind, just saw @GaWx post about 1977-78, they were all weak to low-end moderate Ninos

[winter_warlock]

I believe the last real super elnino was 1998-99 and that didn't result in a snowy winter for mid Atlantic.  But the strong elnino of 82-83 Did give us a snowy winter. Soo.  Sort of a crap shoot to see what we get this coming winter. But hurricane activity should be less this summer. In my opinion 

[GaWx]

 Based on this week’s dailies, I predict that the Mon 3.4 RONI release will be the same (+0.4) or up 0.1.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

I believe the last real super elnino was 1998-99 and that didn't result in a snowy winter for mid Atlantic.  But the strong elnino of 82-83 Did give us a snowy winter. Soo.  Sort of a crap shoot to see what we get this coming winter. But hurricane activity should be less this summer. In my opinion 

1998-99 was the first year of a double-year strong la nina. 1997-98 was the super el nino year, and yes, that one was a record low snow year.

1982-83 was a classic backloaded el nino winter, with the blizzard in February and late freeze/snow event on April 19-20.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Chuck’s clearly referring to the strong -SOI of these two. I can add the even stronger -SOI of 1977-8:
 But keep in mind that these 3’s ONI peaks were only +0.8 to +1.2 per Webb or only weak to low end moderate:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

I just don't know how reliable ENSO SST data from before 1948 is.. I know we kept a meticulous record of SOI though. Point is, I think this one is developing with ENSO forcing further west than the classic Strong Nino's of 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, so the corresponding pattern in the N. Pacific may be different - instead of so much NPH impact, there may be some movement of the PNA. It seems easy to call the temp composite warm because 6/6 Strong Nino's are, but besides the 80-85% chance that we have of having a +departure every month these days, I'm not so sure there is a warm signal in the mean for the East coast, US for the Winter, besides the +NAO probability (decadally and +2 years after Solar Max). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yeah there's some interesting stuff in the dataset. I believe the warm winter of 1949-50 was a strong Nina.

The 1895-1950 composite has some very warm Strong Nina Winter's. Since the dataset is somewhat small, flip that signal around for Strong Nino's unless it is based way more east... 

Here on the EC you don't call Strong La Nina's and Strong El Nino's both warm, if they are both based in Nino 3.4. People fall in the trap of looking solely at analogs, and imo this El Nino is developing a bit different (forcing west) vs previous Super Nino's. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Based on this week’s dailies, I predict that the Mon 3.4 RONI release will be the same (+0.4) or up 0.1.

Not even in Weak Nino threshold in almost mid May.. RONI has some ground to cover if this is going to be Super

57-58, +2.0 peak was +1.1 in May

65-66, +2.0 peak was +0.6 in May

72-73, +2.3 peak was +0.9 in May

82-83, +2.5 peak was +0.8 in May

91-92, +2.3 peak was +0.5 in May *closest analog

97-98, +2.4 peak was +1.0 in May

15-16, +2.4 peak was +0.8 in May