2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You might be surprised what a Super El Nino can produce pattern wise in the Winter,, an event that isn't totally east-based allows the GOA low/+EPO to disconnect a bit. A lot of warm bias from limited examples. I think there are some really cold Strong Nino's in the 1895-1948 dataset, or at least very warm Strong Nina's (counter-examples)

Here's one.. strong -SOI in the Winter of 1911-12

Another strong -SOI Winter

1911-12 and 1914-15 were super El Ninos? 
 

Edit: Nevermind, just saw @GaWx post about 1977-78, they were all weak to low-end moderate Ninos

[winter_warlock]

I believe the last real super elnino was 1998-99 and that didn't result in a snowy winter for mid Atlantic.  But the strong elnino of 82-83 Did give us a snowy winter. Soo.  Sort of a crap shoot to see what we get this coming winter. But hurricane activity should be less this summer. In my opinion 

[GaWx]

 Based on this week’s dailies, I predict that the Mon 3.4 RONI release will be the same (+0.4) or up 0.1.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

I believe the last real super elnino was 1998-99 and that didn't result in a snowy winter for mid Atlantic.  But the strong elnino of 82-83 Did give us a snowy winter. Soo.  Sort of a crap shoot to see what we get this coming winter. But hurricane activity should be less this summer. In my opinion 

1998-99 was the first year of a double-year strong la nina. 1997-98 was the super el nino year, and yes, that one was a record low snow year.

1982-83 was a classic backloaded el nino winter, with the blizzard in February and late freeze/snow event on April 19-20.