2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. 1972 was a good example of a -PDO super El Niño. The -PDO is going to have no limiting effect on this developing super El Niño thanks to the extreme ++PMM that’s in place. In fact, it’s not only helping to kill the trades, enhancing the warming, it’s also working to support the development of an east-based/EP event, as per the research I’ve already shared in this thread a couple of pages ago, explaining how a +PMM favors east-based/EP El Niños

Not much of a May PMM difference between Nino 4, 3.4 and 1.2 based later-in-the-year El Nino's. If anything it's probably strongest for Nino 4

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

91-92 would have probably had a big global temperature jump if not for Pinatubo. It was the 3rd robust el nino in 10 years, and coming off the heels of a temperature jump from the 86-88 el nino.

But my guess is that if Pinatubo never happens, 97-98 still has a temperature jump, but not as drastic. 97-98 not only had the super el nino, but the exiting of a cooling period from a major volcano to enhance its temperature jump.

We had a smaller temperature rise with the 80s into early 90s El Niño events since we were just coming out of the cooler climate prior to 1980. 

The first global first significant temperature jump occurred in 1997-1998. Then the next one in 2015-2016. Followed by 2023-2024. 

We didn’t find out what the CRCs were until after the events. So it’s going to take some time to know how all the details following this event also. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-66143-7

Climate regime shifts (CRSs), characterized by abrupt and persistent transitions between alternative stable states in the climate system, pose serious threats to ecosystems and human well-being. Understanding the potential drivers of CRSs is crucial, particularly in a warming world where CRSs are becoming more frequent. Here, using multiple observations and model simulations, we find that the likelihood of CRS occurrence significantly increases in the context of super El Niño events due to their remarkable climate perturbations. This higher probability is detected across various climate elements, such as surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and surface soil moisture. In addition, we suggest that this boost effect of super El Niño events on CRSs will be greatly amplified under future greenhouse warming. Our findings underscore a deeper and more persistent climate footprint of super El Niño events, suggesting that early warnings and proactive measures are crucial for mitigating their escalating risks.

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Not much of a May PMM difference between Nino 4, 3.4 and 1.2 based later-in-the-year El Nino's. If anything it's probably strongest for Nino 4

A recent (2025) research paper came up with this conclusion about +PMM El Niños: 

“A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.”

Link to the research paper: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other climate modes further complicate,and NPO%2C on ENSO evolution.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Right, I'm just running all the data (73 years +events) and showing that in the data there isn't really a difference. 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thats always "relevant" in his posts lol.

Just like the last 2 cold winters we had, global temps wont matter to most next winter, nor will how how strong the nino is. The sensible weather in anyones location is what most of us really care about. So as we get thru summer and towards Fall, it will be interesting to see what you, 40/70 and others who lack a strong bias and have a forecasting background start to think as the winter approaches. 

The sensible weather in any given location is a function of the global temperatures which sets the range of options. It’s why the CONUS winters have shifted so much warmer after 2014-2015 compared to before. 

This is why your area in the Great Lakes hasn’t been able to experience a repeat of the 2013-2014 winter following the big global temperature jump in 2015-2016.

Same for Central and Eastern PA not being able to experience a repeat of 1993-1994 benchmark for snow and record cold. Along with NYC Metro not seeing anything close to 1995-1996. It’s no coincidence that those two benchmark winters occurred before the first big temperature jump in 1997-1998.

The climate state from 1997-1998 to 2014-2015 also produced benchmark winters for Boston in 2014-2015 and DC to Philly in 2009-2010 which haven’t been able to be replicated.

Following the 2023-2024 temperature shift to warmer weather we experienced the #1 warmest winter and #2 warmest winter for the CONUS only two years ago apart.

Even a relatively small temperature shift to warmer in the 1980s hasn’t allowed a top 10 coldest CONUS winter to happen again like we had in the 1970s. 

So every temperature jump has resulted in some aspect of the prior climate not being able to occur in the new warmer one. 

But we usually have to wait until after one of these jumps to start observing which elements of the earlier climate state haven’t been carried forward into the newer one. 

 

 

[snowman19]

The new NMME is showing very strong coupling and a massive (El Nino) standing wave developing in June