2026-2027 El Nino

[snowman19]

+6C subsurface anomalies showing up now

[Stormchaserchuck1]

91-92 is my favorite analog right now

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

91-92 is my favorite analog right now

Good example of this winter could look with a strongly +NAO/WPO. I am with you on the NAO, but main question is the WPO...I could see that being a bit more negative.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good example of this winter could look with a strongly +NAO/WPO. I am with you on the NAO, but main question is the WPO...I could see that being a bit more negative.

I'm big believer in Global SSTA's the year before, May-Nov, being a great indicator for Winter WPO. A big one is the Indian Ocean - Warm SSTAs correlate with +WPO at 0.5 (75% chance of positive) and visa-versa for cold SSTAs, relative to the global mean. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

91-92 is my favorite analog right now

91-92 is one of those very rare situations, and I don't think it should be used for anything unless there's a major volcanic eruption, or if you have a hunch there's going to be one.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

91-92 is one of those very rare situations, and I don't think it should be used for anything unless there's a major volcanic eruption, or if you have a hunch there's going to be one.

It's the context in which you use it though: If you were saying it is biased colder because of the 3-year period after the eruption, that would make sense, but another pattern prevailed, opposite of the Pinatubo probability.