2026-2027 El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Right now it's developing from the west and the east, signaling basin-wide. Nino 1+2 doesn't correlate as highly as a lead in April, surprisingly. Here is Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4 for +8months Dec SSTA

 

[LakePaste25]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Right now it's developing from the west and the east, signaling basin-wide. Nino 1+2 doesn't correlate as highly as a lead in April, surprisingly. Here is Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4 for +8months Dec SSTA

 

Yup. 15-16 is a good example of a super that starts out east-based before going basin wide approaching winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Cooler May?

NAO was 2nd highest monthly all time in March 2026. 12 weeks x 75 years = 900 analogs. The following May in totality of analogs is surprisingly cold:

CPC has it at least starting out this way

May before a later-in-the-year Nino 3.4 El Nino is pretty Neutral historically, except in the PNW

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nino 4 is the loading pattern for a Nino 3.4 El Nino. CDAS is currently much higher than CPC. 

This event is developing basin-wide like 2015-2016 or further west than most Strong Nino's. If it keeps developing further west at its core, I don't think it will go Super, but perhaps Strong, or per RONI high-end Moderate. 

Been my early hedge, as well. This doesn't necessarily preclude a very warm winter throughout the east, though.

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Been my early hedge, as well. This doesn't necessarily preclude a very warm winter throughout the east, though.

The +PMM correlation research leads me to believe that this one is east-based/EP

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The +PMM correlation research leads me to believe that this one is east-based/EP

April before a Nino 3.4-based El Nino has the +PMM

[Stormchaserchuck1]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Been my early hedge, as well. This doesn't necessarily preclude a very warm winter throughout the east, though.

The March '26 record +NAO, plus our tendency to go more -PDO relative to everything, and the Winter El Nino/+QBO combo, and NAO decadal + phase, where 20/20 months since 2011 with DJFM monthly NAO >1.11 being all positive! makes me currently lean warm as well. 

Really curious to see if we get a monster N. Pacific low this Winter though. If we don't get it, it means we have shifted into a different pattern vs 1980-2016, and the -PDO cycle may still be young. 

[LakePaste25]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Been my early hedge, as well. This doesn't necessarily preclude a very warm winter throughout the east, though.

Yeah. I fully believe mostly warm temps and strong or super. I see the difference between basin wide vs EP as “do we get a couple of more cold intrusions on the back side of winter to try to get something to phase with that supercharged southern stream, or is it extremely limited like 97-98?” It’s really not a question that can answered by even the most skilled mets this early on IMO.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

85% of our months are above average these days. The question is how we are relative to that 85% number

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

April before a Nino 3.4-based El Nino has the +PMM

Research link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other climate modes further complicate,and NPO%2C on ENSO evolution.

As per that research: 

“A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.”

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We'll see. It's a strong PMM spike relative to the PDO so this is a good test year.