2026-2027 El Nino

[so_whats_happening]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

All i have to say is wow
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We have not been able to flush out the WPAC warmth which at some point has to be redistributed. The last couple El Nino events have not had intense WWB events and this potentially has the chance to uproot at least a good portion of that warmth. This certainly will be interesting to watch going forward. 

I know we have had many discussions on here about stuck patterns/ new norms but eventually they do break down, I do wonder what such an event would cause. Time to watch and learn.

Here is 2015 and well 2023 virtually was non existent for a wind anomaly in both March and April. I do wonder with it being so far north what this could mean. We did not reset the Pacific pattern like we saw with the large push in 1997/98 take a look at subsurface and surface anomalies for an example. So maybe in order to tame/remove this heat engine that has been persistent we start to push the bounds of what we have known.

To add the breadth and overall strength of such an event is important as placement.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

We have not been able to flush out the WPAC warmth which at some point has to be redistributed. The last couple El Nino events have not had intense WWB events and this potentially has the chance to uproot at least a good portion of that warmth. This certainly will be interesting to watch going forward. 

I know we have had many discussions on here about stuck patterns/ new norms but eventually they do break down, I do wonder what such an event would cause. Time to watch and learn.

Here is 2015 and well 2023 virtually was non existent for a wind anomaly in both March and April. I do wonder with it being so far north what this could mean. We did not reset the Pacific pattern like we saw with the large push in 1997/98 take a look at subsurface and surface anomalies for an example. So maybe in order to tame/remove this heat engine that has been persistent we start to push the bounds of what we have known.

Yea, if this one ends up discharging all of that record breaking, pent up WPAC warmth….holy s*it. Paul would not be exaggerating, we would be talking a historic level El Niño. This one is also developing as a “classic”, canonical east-based/East Pacific (EP) event like 1997-98 did, which has been a staple of the strongest El Niños we’ve ever seen

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, if this one ends up discharging all of that record breaking, pent up WPAC warmth….holy s*it. Paul would not be exaggerating, we would be talking a historic level El Niño. This one is also developing as a “classic”, canonical east-based/East Pacific (EP) event like 1997-98 did, which has been a staple of the strongest El Niños we’ve ever seen

Ill wait of course until we actually start to see things evolve the next few weeks but I think I remember Bluewave mentioning awhile back about what would be the threshold needed to overcome such a dipole of west to east Pac. We saw ONI from 2015 reach 3C in the intra timeframes overall 2.8 trimonthly and we were still left with a healthy WPAC warm pool.

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Ill wait of course until we actually start to see things evolve the next few weeks but I think I remember Bluewave mentioning awhile back about what would be the threshold needed to overcome such a dipole of west to east Pac. We saw ONI from 2015 reach 3C in the intra timeframes overall 2.8 trimonthly and we were still left with a healthy WPAC warm pool.

If we all need to take a mulligan next winter to vanquish the west-warm pool once and for all, sign me up. Despite a very favorable northern Pacific and polar domain this past season, it was still like pulling teeth to get bonafide coastals ....really just the blizzard, which bent me over, anyway. The dearth of residence time and amplification of the MJO in phase continued, as well. That being said, I have always maintained that Mother Nature will find away to achieve balance, and perhaps the burgeoning El Niño is the vehicle through which said balance will be achieved. 

I'll begin assessing next season in earnest early this summer...but taking a breather for now.

[snowman19]

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we all need to take a mulligan next winter to vanquish the west-warm pool once and for all, sign me up. Despite a very favorable northern Pacific and polar domain this past season, it was still like pulling teeth to get bonafide coastals ....really just the blizzard, which bent me over, anyway. The dearth of residence time and amplification of the MJO in phase continued, as well. That being said, I have always maintained that Mother Nature will find away to achieve balance, and perhaps the burgeoning El Niño is the vehicle through which said balance will be achieved. 

I'll begin assessing next season in earnest early this summer...but taking a breather for now.

That’s what I was thinking too….it may take a historic ENSO event to finally flip the unrelenting, stagnant Pacific. It’s been over 20 years (1997-98) since we’ve had a true, “super”, east-based/East Pacific El Niño. I guess the ‘we’re due’ argument would fit here, since 2015-16 was a basin-wide event, not east-based/EP 

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we all need to take a mulligan next winter to vanquish the west-warm pool once and for all, sign me up. Despite a very favorable northern Pacific and polar domain this past season, it was still like pulling teeth to get bonafide coastals ....really just the blizzard, which bent me over, anyway. The dearth of residence time and amplification of the MJO in phase continued, as well. That being said, I have always maintained that Mother Nature will find away to achieve balance, and perhaps the burgeoning El Niño is the vehicle through which said balance will be achieved. 

I'll begin assessing next season in earnest early this summer...but taking a breather for now.

We shall see I do wonder that with this being so far north in comparison to the past few super El Nino events, this seems to have a bullseye around roughly 5N. Will we follow similar paths to those events or create a new way we have yet to see (something similar to what Stormchaserchuck showed in earlier pages) and would we actually remove the heat basin? In comparison to the last 4 super Nino events in ~50 years.

[so_whats_happening]

Here is the February to March 19th (every about 5 days) TAO look.

We will be having the WWB take place over 130-140E and progress E. You can see what the last one was able to do back in mid February. Very slow rotation going on but could be one heck of a WWB if this holds. Be mindful the zonal wind anomalies shown are not always what reality equates to but more so movement is the key strength will vary along the way.