Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[colonel717]

1 minute ago, southpark said:

The consistency lately is something. But is it right or wrong?

GFS gets criticized a lot, but where it is bad is in midrange. Within 3 days it is good. With just about every model showing similar things, I think it is more right.

[colonel717]

CMV has warm nose at the border. Let's have border patrol stop him from coming up.

[colonel717]

Cmc

 

[MikeB_01]

Just now, colonel717 said:

Pretty inline with the RGEM. Fairly decent outlier as far as the western extent of the core of the storm. Pretty sure it is just those two putting the heaviest band of snow through cleveland

[MikeB_01]

To keep the positives with the GFS -- It DID has the new data in the 00z run. 12 sondes of data worth

[colonel717]

I was reading today that WPC is tossing the UKie for the way it has the trough.

[MikeB_01]

doing a little more analysis now..

Big differences at the 500 level for the NAM and the GFS.

The northern kicker is further southeast and stronger on the GFS than it is on the NAM. Keeping our southern energy a little more to the south. Its a good look and good to know that the new data was in on that GFS

[colonel717]

Let's see what this does next weekend ..

 

[blackngoldrules]

GFS holding steady which is good to see obviously. If the Euro can also at least hold steady, then maybe we can feel good about that WTOD staying south of the border. As many times as that WTOD has snuck up here and bit us, there have been storms where we got lucky and it stayed just south. I hope this is one of them.

Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk

[MikeB_01]

if it means anything to anyone, the SREFs are still moving in the right direction 

[Rd9108]

Who is staying up for the Euro?

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Who is staying up for the Euro?

 

[colonel717]

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Who is staying up for the Euro?

I said I need sleep but I will probably be up. 

[colonel717]

[dj3]

Agreement on 10+ looks pretty solid at this point. 

[Ecanem]

GFS. gFS. gFS!!!!!

 

[MikeB_01]

Eric Wilhem out of Youngstown. This is his call as of this evening.




.

[colonel717]

[MikeB_01]

Euro is running... here we go

[Rd9108]

5 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Looking at trends it has been incredibly steady the last few runs. 

[MikeB_01]

still pretty early on the Euro, but watching the 500 vorts. My guess is that it will be a little north form the 12z. Hope not too much

[Rd9108]

Just now, MikeB_01 said:

still pretty early on the Euro, but watching the 500 vorts. My guess is that it will be a little north form the 12z. Hope not too much

People are saying its more progressive so idk what to believe. This hobby is mentally draining. 

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

People are saying its more progressive so idk what to believe. This hobby is mentally draining. 

yeah. Southern energy looks to be slightly ahead of where it was at 12z and the kicker seems to be further behind. I would think that this would allow that low to amp a little more and bring some warmer air in. 

[Rd9108]

Its a little worse but still pretty good. Im too tired to go over thermals and what not. Let's hope we get some good trends tomorrow. Cant believe we are still 48 hours out from precip.

[Ecanem]

really close  

 

[MikeB_01]

yes. Slightly north. Splitting hairs between the 12z and 00z

[colonel717]

Close to foot.for whole AGC. Such a fast mover on Euro

[MikeB_01]

Just now, colonel717 said:

Close to foot.for whole AGC. Such a fast mover on Euro

yep. 12z Euro on the left. 00z on the right.

[MikeB_01]

.3 less QPF on the new Euro compared to the 12z and .2 less than the 00z GFS.

 

Not a bad run at all. Just noting some observations

[MikeB_01]

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10 and
  14 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio, northwest, southwest, and
  western Pennsylvania, and northern and the northern panhandle of
  West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to noon EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Persons should consider delaying all travel. Motorists
  should use extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary.