WxWatcher007 Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago This is a pretty wild setup. Everything is on the table. I can't recall two invests being this close to one another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 12Z UK 94L: TD just NE of C Bahamas moving ESE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 24.5N 77.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 29.09.2025 108 24.5N 77.2W 1008 28 1200UTC 29.09.2025 120 25.0N 77.0W 1008 27 0000UTC 30.09.2025 132 25.0N 77.1W 1007 27 1200UTC 30.09.2025 144 24.4N 76.6W 1006 24 0000UTC 01.10.2025 156 23.9N 75.0W 1005 25 1200UTC 01.10.2025 168 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago Although there’s not much in the way of low level center, there’s a pretty robust mid level reflection as evidenced by visible satellite and TJUA radar. Not sure I buy the 12z GFS evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago I may be wrong, but I don’t recall the NHC delivering key messages for an undesignated or non-PTC system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago The 12Z EPS, like 0Z and 12Z of yesterday, actually has an uncomfortably high # of members (10+/20%+) hitting the SE US 9/28-10/4, which is earlier than the 10/5-7 12Z Euro freakish US hit. One thing that’s a bit concerning is the forecasted MJO phase 2 by both GEFS and EPS for 9/27-10/3. As I posted about last month, phase 2 has had (whether inside or outside the circle) by a wide margin the highest % (after taking into account % of days in each phase) of Conus Jul-Sept MH hits and along with phase 8 the highest % of H hits since 1975. GEFS EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Followup: Upon closer inspection, 40% (20) of 12Z EPS members affect a portion of the SE with either a TC direct landfall, a skirting of the coast, or a weak remnant. Also, a clear majority of members that weren’t steered by a Fujiwhara from Humberto were in that 40%. So, whether or not Humberto pulls 94L into it might turn out to be the crucial factor for whether or not the SE US is threatened. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 23 minutes ago, GaWx said: Followup: Upon closer inspection, 40% (20) of 12Z EPS members affect a portion of the SE with either a TC direct landfall, a skirting of the coast, or a weak remnant. Also, a clear majority of members that weren’t steered by a Fujiwhara from Humberto were in that 40%. So, whether or not Humberto pulls 94L into it might turn out to be the crucial factor for whether or not the SE US is threatened. Example: 18Z Icon: no Fujiwhara and 94L gets stuck under the strengthening US Great Lakes ridge and subsequently turns NW toward C FL: Edit: And the GEFS/EPS are forecasting this to be during the potentially dangerous phase 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Closer view of the Icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted 25 minutes ago Share Posted 25 minutes ago This is a very interesting setup. Here is an evening video update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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