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Invest 94L—30% 2 day and 80% seven day odds of development


WxWatcher007
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12Z UK 94L: TD just NE of C Bahamas moving ESE

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 24.5N 77.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2025 108 24.5N 77.2W 1008 28
1200UTC 29.09.2025 120 25.0N 77.0W 1008 27
0000UTC 30.09.2025 132 25.0N 77.1W 1007 27
1200UTC 30.09.2025 144 24.4N 76.6W 1006 24
0000UTC 01.10.2025 156 23.9N 75.0W 1005 25
1200UTC 01.10.2025 168 CEASED TRACKING

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 The 12Z EPS, like 0Z and 12Z of yesterday, actually has an uncomfortably high # of members (10+/20%+) hitting the SE US 9/28-10/4, which is earlier than the 10/5-7 12Z Euro freakish US hit.

 One thing that’s a bit concerning is the forecasted MJO phase 2 by both GEFS and EPS for 9/27-10/3. As I posted about last month, phase 2 has had (whether inside or outside the circle) by a wide margin the highest % (after taking into account % of days in each phase) of Conus Jul-Sept MH hits and along with phase 8 the highest % of H hits since 1975.

GEFS

IMG_4636.png.154589452b849c5acc9a5edf49b4fcbe.png
 

EPS

IMG_4637.png.f76e6c0d9725e35e8a4386208fa9f926.png

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Followup: 

 Upon closer inspection, 40% (20) of 12Z EPS members affect a portion of the SE with either a TC direct landfall, a skirting of the coast, or a weak remnant. Also, a clear majority of members that weren’t steered by a Fujiwhara from Humberto were in that 40%. So, whether or not Humberto pulls 94L into it might turn out to be the crucial factor for whether or not the SE US is threatened.

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23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Followup: 

 Upon closer inspection, 40% (20) of 12Z EPS members affect a portion of the SE with either a TC direct landfall, a skirting of the coast, or a weak remnant. Also, a clear majority of members that weren’t steered by a Fujiwhara from Humberto were in that 40%. So, whether or not Humberto pulls 94L into it might turn out to be the crucial factor for whether or not the SE US is threatened.

Example:

18Z Icon: no Fujiwhara and 94L gets stuck under the strengthening US Great Lakes ridge and subsequently turns NW toward C FL:

IMG_4638.thumb.png.623052ab1c4f931813d154c3fb3d9b9d.png
 

Edit: And the GEFS/EPS are forecasting this to be during the potentially dangerous phase 2.

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