Tropical Storm Gabrielle

[Wannabehippie]

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I'm curious to know why we have three recon planes flying all the way out to a tropical storm in the middle of the ocean, which isn't going to affect any land.

Probably for educational purposes for future storms

 

[Wannabehippie]

It looks to me that Gabrielle is currently being affected by an ULL to its west, and dry air to its north.NHC still predicts it will become a hurricane tomorrow.

 

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/a290b4b1-9c78-4bd0-8b59-9ebf3196f9b8

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Gabby on its way to becoming our next hurricane 

[NorthHillsWx]

I think it’s a hurricane based on recon but sat presentation has degraded since the plane left. Not sure what happens with the system pretty huge spread in intensity guidance 

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think it’s a hurricane based on recon but sat presentation has degraded since the plane left. Not sure what happens with the system pretty huge spread in intensity guidance 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025

...GABRIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 61.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025

We are fortunate to have three NOAA aircraft (two P3's and one G-IV)
which are conducting research missions into Gabrielle this
afternoon. The data they have provided has been valuable, showing
the storm has become better aligned in the low to mid-levels
compared to this morning, though the eyewall structure has been
coming and going due to occasional dry air mixing out near the
cyclone's core. The highest 750 mb flight-level winds were up to 70
kt, which using a typical 0.85 reduction supports 60 kt. However,
the Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) on board one of the NOAA-P3 aircraft
showed a swath of 0.5 km winds up to 79 kt in the eastern semicircle
at 1741 UTC. Using a more conservative 0.80 reduction factor
for this level supports an intensity of 65 kt, and Gabrielle has
become a hurricane.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 28.5N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 29.7N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 31.2N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 32.7N 60.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 35.2N 53.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 35.8N 47.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 37.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 41.5N 25.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin