Fall 2025 WX Discussion Thread

[John1122]

Sitting at .73 inches of rain today, really didn't expect much at all. 

[Daniel Boone]

14 hours ago, John1122 said:

Sitting at .73 inches of rain today, really didn't expect much at all. 

Just 0.02" here.

[John1122]

3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Just 0.02" here.

It pretty much rained all day and became moderate in the afternoon.

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

It pretty much rained all day and became moderate in the afternoon.

I saw that on Radar yesterday. Knew we were getting shafted.

[John1122]

Oh Canada!

 

[fountainguy97]

Icon and euro both really dig the trough and give some nice NW snow to the region.  Euro breaks containment with trailing snow showers across NC too. 
 

 

this is random but does anyone remember the November 1,2014 storm? Was it a monster ULL?  Someone here showed me a Facebook memory and it looked like Erwin got smoked especially considering it was so early in the season.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

Icon and euro both really dig the trough and give some nice NW snow to the region.  Euro breaks containment with trailing snow showers across NC too. 
 

 

this is random but does anyone remember the November 1,2014 storm? Was it a monster ULL?  Someone here showed me a Facebook memory and it looked like Erwin got smoked especially considering it was so early in the season.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/01/incredible-early-season-snow-slams-the-southeast-impacts-felt-across-eastern-u-s/

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

Icon and euro both really dig the trough and give some nice NW snow to the region.  Euro breaks containment with trailing snow showers across NC too. 
 

 

this is random but does anyone remember the November 1,2014 storm? Was it a monster ULL?  Someone here showed me a Facebook memory and it looked like Erwin got smoked especially considering it was so early in the season.

Here are our threads:

 

 

Tennessee fans had trouble getting to the game in South Carolina.  This was part of a string of early season snows around that time frame.  Pretty sure we were the bullseye, and it shifts SE.  There are some good maps and discussion in our threads.  The Capitol Weather Gang has some maps as well.   Indeed, there are some photos of Erwin in our observations thread.  Crazy storm.

[Carvers Gap]

Fountain, if you go to the Oct 24th or 25th(2014 thread above) post by @tnweathernut, there is some good discussion by John, 1234, and tnweathernut.  I have no idea what I was doing during that timeframe!  I didn't post until a bit closer to the event which is unusual.  Anyway, 1234 posted some maps of the event from about a week out.  That was a fun one to track.  Pretty sure there was snow in the Williams-Bryce Stadium stands in Columbia, SC, for that game.  

[Carvers Gap]

We really need to start looking at a way to archive these threads and save them as an online library.  It would be a huge loss to lose these.  This forum is probably the best library of weather events dating back to 2014 for the Tenn Valley.

[Carvers Gap]

Not many other models are showing this much development, but man....that will leave a mark.  Partial phase, but doesn't get neutral in time for us.  There are some nice upslope snows for those in the best spots.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks to me like the GFS and CMC at 12z are quicker w/ the energy over the GL.  The Euro slows it down and drops it into the backside of the trough.  That might be an error by that model as it tends to hold energy back. I'd feel better if the GFS had it.  I need to check the ensembles.  But...if that were legit, that is a lot of energy to crank to our SE.  The sigma maps on Weatherbell are impressive at 500 for the Euro operational.

[Carvers Gap]

Hmmm.  Well....

[Carvers Gap]

@fountainguy97, that is uncanny.  The 12z Euro drops 16" over the same high elevations spots as it did in 2014.  Good find.

[Carvers Gap]

Compare that GFS ensemble sigma to the Euro operational at the same range....

[Carvers Gap]

Noticeable trend southward on 12z ensembles.  Something to watch, but it is a great example of why looking at 500 maps tells the story.  IF(stress IF) that holds, somebody would likely get hammered by that.  Definitely will be watching this for a few days.  Huge grains of salt as climatology really doesn't support snow this early, but Fountain mentioned a great example above of this actually occurring.  It is uncanny how close those maps look.  I will be interested to see the trends.  Also interesting, 2014-15 turned out to be a great winter.  I bet the QBO dipped around then off the top of my head.

[Carvers Gap]

MRX from this afternoon....

Ridging builds back in Thursday afternoon with warmer temperatures
and quasi-zonal flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere..
A more progressive trough will approach the Mississippi Valley by
late Friday with an associated surface low pressure near the Great
Lakes. A cold front will move eastward across the forecast area
Friday night into Saturday morning with widespread showers and
thunderstorms expected.

A few rounds of shortwaves will strengthen the upper-level trough
across the region Sunday night into Monday. Deterministic and
ensemble members are in good agreement even this far out from the
weekend. The LREF indicates about a 70+ percent chances of
temperatures less than 32 degrees across the valley next Monday
night, which is a fairly strong signal this far out for a widespread
freeze. With northwest orographic flow and 850mb temperatures below
0C, some light snowfall will be possible for higher elevations above
4000 ft across the mountains. A significant return of cold air
appears likely early to mid next week bringing an early taste of
winter.

[Carvers Gap]

Sure looks like the 18z has held back the energy on this run and sped up the energy flowing underneath.  It probably won't get to 12z Euro levels, but that is a big step at 500.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GEFS 500 sigma has it yet again, and is now stronger.  Something to watch.  I have prob posted too much about it, but these types of systems can be potentially fun to track.  Need to get inside of four days to really get a good feel for this.  Sometimes northern stream energy will trend northward over time, and the phase is missed.  Right now, we want the trend on the GFS operational to be slower and a bit deeper.  The GFS being too fast is a bias just as much as the Euro being too slow.  

[Carvers Gap]

 

[midwoodian]

How far out is 18z? Sorry newb!


.

[John1122]

27 minutes ago, midwoodian said:

How far out is 18z? Sorry newb!


.

18z is when the model was ran. This time of year, 0z is the 7pm, 06z is 1am, 12z is 7am, and 18z is 1pm, all those are EST, subtract an hour for CST. Usually around 4 hours after that initialization time, the results show up on websites. The Euro is more like 5 hours later. 

 

Carvers' map up there is the output for 21z next Monday. 4pm/3pm November 10th. 

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

MRX from this afternoon....

Ridging builds back in Thursday afternoon with warmer temperatures
and quasi-zonal flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere..
A more progressive trough will approach the Mississippi Valley by
late Friday with an associated surface low pressure near the Great
Lakes. A cold front will move eastward across the forecast area
Friday night into Saturday morning with widespread showers and
thunderstorms expected.

A few rounds of shortwaves will strengthen the upper-level trough
across the region Sunday night into Monday. Deterministic and
ensemble members are in good agreement even this far out from the
weekend. The LREF indicates about a 70+ percent chances of
temperatures less than 32 degrees across the valley next Monday
night, which is a fairly strong signal this far out for a widespread
freeze. With northwest orographic flow and 850mb temperatures below
0C, some light snowfall will be possible for higher elevations above
4000 ft across the mountains. A significant return of cold air
appears likely early to mid next week bringing an early taste of
winter.

If you notice, KMRX always broadbrushes the elevation regardless of Latitude. Also, Models are showing flakes reaching Valley Floors in SWVA, and NETN. but yet no mention of the possibility . I know it's 5-6 days out but still. 

 

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Noticeable trend southward on 12z ensembles.  Something to watch, but it is a great example of why looking at 500 maps tells the story.  IF(stress IF) that holds, somebody would likely get hammered by that.  Definitely will be watching this for a few days.  Huge grains of salt as climatology really doesn't support snow this early, but Fountain mentioned a great example above of this actually occurring.  It is uncanny how close those maps look.  I will be interested to see the trends.  Also interesting, 2014-15 turned out to be a great winter.  I bet the QBO dipped around then off the top of my head.

I think it was November 11-12 ,2021 we got 4 to 7 inches from anafrontal. Let's not forget last year the first measurable snowfall was November 22. I measured 2.8" . Some Locations higher up had several inches more.

   November had decreased in Snowfall Averages over the last 50 Year's. Maybe that is changing. Who knows. 

[fountainguy97]

7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

We really need to start looking at a way to archive these threads and save them as an online library.  It would be a huge loss to lose these.  This forum is probably the best library of weather events dating back to 2014 for the Tenn Valley.

Yes. It's so difficult to find any info regarding events in this area. I dig through this forum a lot to find storms. Too bad it wasn't around before the 2010s.

[Carvers Gap]

7 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

Yes. It's so difficult to find any info regarding events in this area. I dig through this forum a lot to find storms. Too bad it wasn't around before the 2010s.

We had a forum prior to AmWx.  It was basically the people from this site, but closed down.  We were in the SE forum then.  When we switched, the owners of this site graciously gave us our own forum.  There are lots of storm threads in SE forum thread of the other site, even for our area.  Eastern Weather I "think" was its name.  I do think they archived it, but I am not sure where it is.  It would be great to archive our stuff for the TN Valley and make it like a library.  I am not sure how proprietary rights would work with that.  But at least we would have a backup.  Eastern just went off line one day, and never came back.  Lost all of it.

[Carvers Gap]

9 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

I think it was November 11-12 ,2021 we got 4 to 7 inches from anafrontal. Let's not forget last year the first measurable snowfall was November 22. I measured 2.8" . Some Locations higher up had several inches more.

   November had decreased in Snowfall Averages over the last 50 Year's. Maybe that is changing. Who knows. 

During the 70s, 80s, and 90s I rarely saw snow before Christmas.  But my parents remember lots of snows in the 60s which were early.  It certainly seems that early arriving winters are more normal now with February being less storm - kind of traded one for the other.

Just a quick update so I don't have to post twice.  The Euro continues to advertise a rather vigorous wave w/ the 9-11th cold shot.  The GFS and CMC not so much.  The Euro makes the most sense as that is a very common occurrence when cold are arrives which is that strong.  Something to continue watching.

[John1122]

17 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

We really need to start looking at a way to archive these threads and save them as an online library.  It would be a huge loss to lose these.  This forum is probably the best library of weather events dating back to 2014 for the Tenn Valley.

The internet archive archives this site. So it's saved there if nothing else. 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

We had a forum prior to AmWx.  It was basically the people from this site, but closed down.  We were in the SE forum then.  When we switched, the owners of this site graciously gave us our own forum.  There are lots of storm threads in SE forum thread of the other site, even for our area.  Eastern Weather I "think" was its name.  I do think they archived it, but I am not sure where it is.  It would be great to archive our stuff for the TN Valley and make it like a library.  I am not sure how proprietary rights would work with that.  But at least we would have a backup.  Eastern just went off line one day, and never came back.  Lost all of it.

Yeah. There was Wright Weather Board before Eastern that many went to Eastern from as well.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

During the 70s, 80s, and 90s I rarely saw snow before Christmas.  But my parents remember lots of snows in the 60s which were early.  It certainly seems that early arriving winters are more normal now with February being less storm - kind of traded one for the other.

Just a quick update so I don't have to post twice.  The Euro continues to advertise a rather vigorous wave w/ the 9-11th cold shot.  The GFS and CMC not so much.  The Euro makes the most sense as that is a very common occurrence when cold are arrives which is that strong.  Something to continue watching.

We were apparently a bit more fortunate over here in the '70's irt November Snowfall. 8" Thanksgiving 1971.  2" early November '74, 4" Nov.12-13, 76. 11" (12" Pennington gap, 16" Big Stone) Nov.26,77. The '80's had no major November Snowfalls other than Higher Elevations in 1987. A few inch or less events ; 1981, 85, 87, 89.

   As you alluded to, the '60's had measurable Snow nearly every November.