Fall 2025 WX Discussion Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Second morning in a row with heavy frost.   Yesterday morning was much colder than expected.  Today was cold but was expected.  

[Carvers Gap]

Ensembles are picking up a fairly strong amplification on October 30th.....GEFS and EPS both.  It is a pretty strong signal.

[jaxjagman]

Thinnk this fall has alot of similarties to last fall as we head into Dec,some teleconnections surley dont match ATM

[Carvers Gap]

I am definitely interested in the time frame around Halloween.  The 12z GFS gets VERY close to something good for NE TN.  The CMC isn't that much different.  The Euro never entrains southern energy....  I am going to guess that has an inland runner.  

[Daniel Boone]

9 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am definitely interested in the time frame around Halloween.  The 12z GFS gets VERY close to something good for NE TN.  The CMC isn't that much different.  The Euro never entrains southern energy....  I am going to guess that has an inland runner.  

Right with you. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking at Apple Wx on my phone, I still expect to see temps in the upper 70s w/ sun.  Right now, all I see are 50s and rain chances.  This looks locked in for a bit.  Should get a brief respite of warm during mid Nov before getting cold again.  Long range pattern really does not want to budge.

[Carvers Gap]

13 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Right with you. 

Thursday night Euro is just nastiness - cold rain, likely mountain mix w/ a low parading across the Gulf states.  My kind of weather, but it isn't for everyone.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thursday night Euro is just nastiness - cold rain, likely mountain mix w/ a low parading across the Gulf states.  My kind of weather, but it isn't for everyone.

Yeah. Mentioned to my Wife awhile ago that possibly some flurries or Snow showers Thursday night. If enough cold can get pulled down there could be some decent accumulations up high. 

[John1122]

1.25 inches of rain since yesterday at 7pm. Still coming down. 49 degrees. 

[John1122]

Picked up another 1.3 inches of rain since that last post. It was drizzle and light rain most of today. 

[dwagner88]

2.54" Monday, not as much expected today, but we could still crack 3" for the week. Looks like even more heavy rain is possible Sunday-Tuesday.

[Carvers Gap]

I really like JB's rule that winter weather (snow, cold, ice) tends to show up where it rained a lot during fall.  Just file that away.

[Carvers Gap]

The closer we are getting to winter(and I can actually see some weeklies runs), the more I think we are playing with house money at some point.

[John1122]

Another chilly day with drenching rain. 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The first high elevations snows(light) are expected in the Smokies overnight.  I wonder you will see some, John?

[Carvers Gap]

I am looking forward to fall back...model runs start coming out "earlier."

[John1122]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The first high elevations snows(light) are expected in the Smokies overnight.  I wonder you will see some, John?

I don't expect to see anything. My low is supposed to be 45 and thats basically the high tomorrow as well. Looks like snow will be 4500+ feet. 

[dwagner88]

Interesting forecast for Monday. Last night at 00Z the euro was on an island showing a heavy precipitation event over northern GA and SE TN caused by what looked like a cutoff low. It disappeared at the 12Z runs, but now the GFS has it. Official forecast for now is sunny skies, but two models have shown 4-6” of rain. 

[John1122]

1.1 inches of rain today, 3.6 inches this week so far.

[John1122]

The 18z GFS around D11 had a 1-3 inch snow for the Plateau/SWVa with more along the mountains. Around .5 to 1 inch for most of the mid-state. One of the first shots fired for accumulating snow across the lower elevations. The 12z had it but over a smaller area. Basically less than a half inch over Campbell/Scott/SE Ky/SWVa and heavier snow in the higher eastern mountains.

I doubt it will still be there on the 0z.