INVEST 98L - Possible TD before inland later today

[WxWatcher007]

98L is still very disorganized per recon so far. 

[WxWatcher007]

We have some light westerlies in that most recent batch of data from recon which is meaningful, but still, not terribly organized. 

[WxWatcher007]

Despite the IR appearance, it does look like 98L is organizing more now. 

Again, not a lot of time, but the NHC has upped the development odds given the trends we're starting to see. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Despite the IR appearance, it does look like 98L is organizing more now. 

Again, not a lot of time, but the NHC has upped the development odds given the trends we're starting to see. 

Southwestern Gulf (AL98): Recent geostationary and microwave satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization with a small area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf. An earlier Air Force reconnaissance mission found that the system lacks a well-defined low-level circulation. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward across the western Gulf during the next day or so, and environmental conditions appear generally favorable for further development. A tropical depression could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late Friday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next few days. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Friday morning.

Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.

Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[WxWatcher007]

Now we're seeing a burst of convection near the apparent center, and this may be particularly well timed should it sustain itself through the diurnal max. We'll see if this leads to TC genesis. Given the structural organization that seemed to be underway this evening, it probably increases the odds. 

This was a few hours ago before this burst

[BarryStantonGBP]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Now we're seeing a burst of convection near the apparent center, and this may be particularly well timed should it sustain itself through the diurnal max. We'll see if this leads to TC genesis. Given the structural organization that seemed to be underway this evening, it probably increases the odds. 

This was a few hours ago before this burst

Still 50/50 lad

[WxWatcher007]

98L is making one final push before reaching the coastline, with deep convection continuing to fire. Radar doesn’t show much organization imo but frictional convergence may help later. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

98L is making one final push before reaching the coastline, with deep convection continuing to fire. Radar doesn’t show much organization imo but frictional convergence may help later. 

The advisory also said a brief td is possible

[GaWx]

 The latest raw recon reports are showing SE winds to 43 mph and SSW winds to 32 mph fwiw.

[Wannabehippie]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The latest raw recon reports are showing SE winds to 43 mph and SSW winds to 32 mph fwiw.

98L still looks like it is having trouble closing off that center of circulation. Even if it doesn't, there is going to be some pretty heavy rains coming onshore.

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah that doesn't look like a TC to me despite the southwesterlies. That was a quick trip by recon lol. 98L is out of time. 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah that doesn't look like a TC to me despite the southwesterlies. That was a quick trip by recon lol. 98L is out of time. 

Per elsewhere

Special TWO drops it to 20/20 so looks like it's not going to happen.