Invest 98L - 20/20 - Recon enroute Thursday afternoon

[BarryStantonGBP]

1. Southwestern Gulf:
A tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending across eastern 
Honduras, northeastern Nicaragua and adjacent marine areas.  This 
system is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan 
Peninsula on Wednesday with no significant increase in 
organization.  Some development of this system is possible after it 
emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while 
the system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[BarryStantonGBP]

[BarryStantonGBP]

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

 

The Bay of Campeche/SW Gulf has often over performed. A TC from this wouldn’t at all surprise me. The NHC is probably too low with its percentages.

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The Bay of Campeche/SW Gulf has often over performed. A TC from this wouldn’t at all surprise me. The NHC is probably too low with its percentages.

Fernand strikes me as a gulf quick fire name

[WxWatcher007]

Never count out the BoC

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Never count out the BoC

A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance is forecast to move 
west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan Peninsula today with no 
significant increase in organization. Some development of this 
system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern Gulf 
beginning on Thursday while it moves to the northwest at 10 to 15 
mph. The system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico 
by late Friday, which should diminish its chances of development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[BarryStantonGBP]

Invest 98L
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 13, 2025:
 

Location: 18.4°N 89.9°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 100 nm

[BarryStantonGBP]

 LMFAOOOOOOOO 

[BarryStantonGBP]

Southwestern Gulf (AL98):

A broad low pressure area has formed from a tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This low is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf overnight where environmental conditions are marginally conducive for further development. The system is forecast to move inland over northeastern Mexico by late Friday, ending its chances of formation.

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[GaWx]

 This is convectively active this morning. The SW Gulf often over-performs with regard to the models.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 This is convectively active this morning. The SW Gulf often over-performs with regard to the models.

why does this frog do this all the time?

if 98L gets named it repeats the same pattern

Quote

The name Fernand has been used for two tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Fernand (2013), short-lived tropical storm that formed in the Gulf of Mexico and struck Veracruz, Mexico

Tropical Storm Fernand (2019), another short-lived Gulf of Mexico tropical storm that made landfall over northeastern Mexico

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

OI LADS YOUS COULD GET A LASTMINUTE.COM CATEGORY 1 INTO TEXAS INNIT

[WxWatcher007]

Although it's convectively active, it doesn't look particularly organized and time is a huge limiting factor. It's a low shear environment and the BoC so we'll see if that helps organize this faster into a TC. We'll know more should recon fly today at 18z.  

[BarryStantonGBP]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Although it's convectively active, it doesn't look particularly organized and time is a huge limiting factor. It's a low shear environment and the BoC so we'll see if that helps organize this faster into a TC. We'll know more should recon fly today at 18z.  

Do you think this little fella can reach C1

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Do you think this little fella can reach C1

No, there's just not enough time for that kind of organization to occur imo. This is probably making landfall tomorrow afternoon which would suggest ~45kt intensification in 24 hours. That would require exceptionally fast organization just to allow for the kind of pressure falls necessary to bring winds up to 64kt. A "lower end" TS would be more likely. 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

No, there's just not enough time for that kind of organization to occur imo. This is probably making landfall tomorrow afternoon which would suggest ~45kt intensification in 24 hours. That would require exceptionally fast organization just to allow for the kind of pressure falls necessary to bring winds up to 64kt. A "lower end" TS would be more likely. 

 

that's what I think too lad

[BarryStantonGBP]

RECON ABOUT TO PENETRATE LADS

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

RECON ABOUT TO PENETRATE LADS

[Scott747]

Recon just left Keesler so it will be a few hours before any upgradable obs were to come in. As mentioned while it looks pretty it's not particularly impressive structurally. But who knows, if they find one barb of a west wind there could be PTC advisories initiated at 4.

 

 

[Windspeed]

This may have just enough time to close off prior to landfall. Might even get named. But the real threat here is the potential for significant inland flooding as any surface low moving inland will pull trailing feeder bands. Daytime heating, high CAPE, and an open tap on that bathwater will most likely do its thing for a flooding event this time of year.

[GaWx]

MJO climo to keep in mind regarding Invest 98L:

Hurricanes since 1975 in Jul-Sep that hit S or C coast of TX in MJO phase 2:
-Hanna of 2020
-Harvey of 2017
-Claudette of 2003
-Bret of 1999


All S or C coast of TX H landfalls Jul-Sep since 1975 by MJO phase:
-1: Allen 1980
-2: Hanna, Harvey, Claudette, Bret
-3: Beryl 2024, Dolly 2008
-4-8: none

 So, of the 7 Hs to landfall on S or C TX Jul-Sep since 1975, 4 (57%) hit during phase 2 and 6 (86%) hit during either phase 2 or 3!
 The MJO is in phase 2 today and is progged to likely be in phase 2 tomorrow though phase 3 is a slight possibility. Just some climo for thought.