93L – “Inactive” Season Posting Check-In

[BarryStantonGBP]

12 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Also just checking the boxes here.  I see the title of this post "Inactive" Season Posting Check In:

it's meant to be a jab to season cancellers on s2k and twitter innit, hence the " "

[BarryStantonGBP]

13 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Also just checking the boxes here.  I see the title of this post "Inactive" Season Posting Check In:

 

So, far we are at 3 named systems exactly one year ago we too were at 3 named systems.

On that pace we had 21 named storms last year.

After Record Breaking Category 5 Hurricane Beryl there was a very long pause in development which saw many weeks of Sarhan Dust.

We should NOT let our guard down.  Last year I remembered the same conversations about inactive where are the hurricanes then along came storms like Helene which absolutely devastated inland communities in the southeastern states and Milton to round out the Hurricane season it was pretty bad!

I am very concerned for the future state of the East Coast Florida to Long Island and the entire Gulf Coast right into Texas.  Things are really set up for some historic problems being that multiple areas in the path of potential tropical cyclone paths are picking up record breaking rainfall rates.  The obvious hotbeds for this is Texas, North Carolina, and much of the Mid-Atlantic.

 

Also, I am up here in South Jersey, and we have seen ocean water temps right now sitting at 78-82f pretty toasty.

In closing I unfortunately think we are set up for a pretty bad August to early October and the current state of the weather pattern with the East Coast pretty much open and the Gulf Coast once the trough currently in place retrogrades west towards the Ohio Valley in time. 

 

 

if anything I personally think we'd see about 17-20 named storms this year

and plenty of majors come august-october

 

[FPizz]

19 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Also just checking the boxes here.  I see the title of this post "Inactive" Season Posting Check In:

 

So, far we are at 3 named systems exactly one year ago we too were at 3 named systems.

On that pace we had 21 named storms last year.

After Record Breaking Category 5 Hurricane Beryl there was a very long pause in development which saw many weeks of Sarhan Dust.

We should NOT let our guard down.  Last year I remembered the same conversations about inactive where are the hurricanes then along came storms like Helene which absolutely devastated inland communities in the southeastern states and Milton to round out the Hurricane season it was pretty bad!

I am very concerned for the future state of the East Coast Florida to Long Island and the entire Gulf Coast right into Texas.  Things are really set up for some historic problems being that multiple areas in the path of potential tropical cyclone paths are picking up record breaking rainfall rates.  The obvious hotbeds for this is Texas, North Carolina, and much of the Mid-Atlantic.

 

Also, I am up here in South Jersey, and we have seen ocean water temps right now sitting at 78-82f pretty toasty.

In closing I unfortunately think we are set up for a pretty bad August to early October and the current state of the weather pattern with the East Coast pretty much open and the Gulf Coast once the trough currently in place retrogrades west towards the Ohio Valley in time. 

 

 

Last years ACE to date vs this years?  

[Kevin Reilly]

4 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

if anything I personally think we'd see about 17-20 named storms this year

and plenty of major come august-october

 

Yes, definitely my thoughts too and I am pretty concerned for up and down the east coast August to September and then especially the Florida Peninsula like last year later September into October with development coming from the Carribean then approaching the Florida West Coast from the southwest and south-southwest come September and October.

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Last years ACE to date vs this years?  

I am not 100% sure about that, but I don't think you can really compare the two because last year at this time we had two tropical storms and a massive Category 5 Beryl on July 1st in the Carribean.  I am sure in time things could catch up fast, but that will depend on atmospheric conditions and the Sarahann Dust layer.

[BarryStantonGBP]

10 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Yes, definitely my thoughts too and I am pretty concerned for up and down the east coast August to September and then especially the Florida Peninsula like last year later September into October with development coming from the Carribean then approaching the Florida West Coast from the southwest and south-southwest come September and October.

LMAO have you seen this. So much for those season cancelling

in fact here's what I see happening pace-wise

July might just get Dexter alone

August: Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto (kinda see this one being a long tracker)

September: Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo (long tracker), Melissa

What about you

 

[FPizz]

23 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I am not 100% sure about that, but I don't think you can really compare the two because last year at this time we had two tropical storms and a massive Category 5 Beryl on July 1st in the Carribean.  I am sure in time things could catch up fast, but that will depend on atmospheric conditions and the Sarahann Dust layer.

I know we started off big with Beryl, but was just wondering.  Thanks.  Found this year, 1.5

[WxWatcher007]

Disjointed appearance still but there’s a robust mid level rotation just north of Orlando. A lot still depends on whether this can get back out over the gulf with a coherent circulation. 

[GaWx]

12Z ICON is coming in even a little weaker than the 6Z and possibly slightly further north. It has essentially no LLC of significance.

[Kevin Reilly]

44 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Disjointed appearance still but there’s a robust mid level rotation just north of Orlando. A lot still depends on whether this can get back out over the gulf with a coherent circulation. 

Looks like a low level circulation moving west towards Jacksonville that will move inland into SE Georgia.

The mid level circulation moving west through central Florida will head west and emerge just north or near Tampa then we watch and wait for developments.  As you said it’s a pretty robust circulation and once pressures fall in the gulf it can and will develop. Regardless 2-4” of rain all along the path of this system maybe more depending on development especially for the central gulf coast. 

[Kevin Reilly]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z ICON is coming in even a little weaker than the 6Z and possibly slightly further north. It has essentially no LLC of significance.

It will be interesting to see what models do keep in the back of your mind there are two distinct circulations models will have to sift out which is the circulation to track.  If they latch onto the northern circulation they will naturally not show much of anything.  The true circulation well south-southwest  100 miles or so could just burrow to the surface and take over for development next 36 hours.

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

It will be interesting to see what models do keep in the back of your mind there are two distinct circulations models will have to sift out which is the circulation to track.  If they latch onto the northern circulation they will naturally not show much of anything.  The true circulation well south-southwest  100 miles or so could just burrow to the surface and take over for development next 36 hours.

 Perhaps the strong ICON runs from yesterday and the day before were because they were latching into the further SSW mid level circ.

[Kevin Reilly]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Perhaps the strong ICON runs from yesterday and the day before were because they were latching into the further SSW mid level circ.

Exactly what I was thinking.  We are right now at 50/50 I think in regards to development of something significant say depression or Dexter once the middle level vortex emerges off the west coast. Now because it’s a mid level circulation it should have no issue making it across down I-4 in central Florida to the gulf time wi tell. 

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Perhaps the strong ICON runs from yesterday and the day before were because they were latching into the further SSW mid level circ.

Is the ICON any good with hurricanes?  Overall the model kind of sucks, but wasn't sure if Tropical it might be better?

[GaWx]

57 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Is the ICON any good with hurricanes?  Overall the model kind of sucks, but wasn't sure if Tropical it might be better?

It’s had its really good moments for sure. 

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah like the other models it has its moments.

93L has a pretty impressive look on IR and radar. Definitely aided by daytime heating but given its location I think this has a solid chance of development. Maybe 60%.

[Kevin Reilly]

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah like the other models it has its moments.

93L has a pretty impressive look on IR and radar. Definitely aided by daytime heating but given its location I think this has a solid chance of development. Maybe 60%.

If 93L comes off and can manage a further SW track before turning west then west-northwest then northwest it would stand a much better chance at development over water for a longer period of time. 

[Kevin Reilly]

Florida Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather

 

There is another circulation just west of Key West too interesting.

Still have the lower-level circulation up in north Florida near Gainesville moving west and the mid-level circulation moving west southwest of Ocala into the Gulf at this time fairly active in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico should be rather interesting to see how all of this unfolds over the next 24-48 hours.

[WxWatcher007]

The great thing is that we’ll likely have radar coverage the entire time to monitor trends. There’s deep convection firing as this moves offshore. That’s where you want to watch for a center reformation. 

 

[GaWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93):
Surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure 
continues to move westward across the Florida Panhandle and is 
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity mainly south 
of its center. This system is forecast to continue moving westward, 
and could emerge or redevelop over the far northeastern to 
north-central portion of the Gulf, reaching the coast of Louisiana 
by Thursday. If this system moves far enough offshore, environmental 
conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional 
development, and a tropical depression could still form over the 
next couple of days before the system moves fully inland by the end 
of the week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized 
flash flooding over portions of Florida through through today.  
Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the 
north-central Gulf Coast beginning late today and continuing through 
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued 
by your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.