Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,085
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

Tropical Storm Chantal


Recommended Posts

There were numerous crazy high 24 hour rainfall amounts in C NC! It’s been over 25 years (almost back to when World Wide Web came into existence) since widespread very heavy 24 hour rainfall amounts like these occurred in this region:

Insanity:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC  
1134 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
  
...24 HOUR PRECIPITATION REPORTS OVER 7 INCHES ENDING AT 8AM FROM   
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...  
  
LOCATION                     AMOUNT    TIME/DATE       PROVIDER               
   
..NORTH CAROLINA  
  
   
..ALAMANCE COUNTY  
  
MEBANE 3.0 SSW               9.73 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
BURLINGTON 3.9 NNW           8.01 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
0.5 SW HAW RIVER             7.79 IN   1045 AM 07/07   COOP                   
1.3 SE GRAHAM                7.62 IN   0705 AM 07/07   COOP                   
                   
   
..CHATHAM COUNTY  
  
2.4 N MONCURE                11.92 IN  1045 AM 07/07   COOP                   
PITTSBORO 8.8 NNE            11.53 IN  0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
PITTSBORO 5.0 NE             10.37 IN  0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
PITTSBORO 3.3 NNW            10.35 IN  0849 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
PITTSBORO                    10.15 IN  1055 AM 07/07   CWOP                   
CHAPEL HILL 5.9 SW           10.05 IN  0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
PITTSBORO 5.4 WSW            9.44 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
CHAPEL HILL 8.6 SSW          9.25 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
PITTSBORO 0.8 NNW            9.12 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
SILER CITY 6.6 ENE           9.10 IN   0640 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
SILER CITY 8.1 ENE           8.14 IN   0800 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
GOLDSTON 3.8 N               7.94 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
SILER CITY 7.2 NE            7.54 IN   0800 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
SILER CITY                   7.23 IN   1055 AM 07/07   CWOP                   
SILER CITY                   7.10 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
               
   
..DURHAM COUNTY  
  
DURHAM 4.6 WNW               8.46 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
DURHAM 5.8 NW                8.23 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
HILLSBOROUGH                 7.26 IN   1100 AM 07/07   CWOP                   
DURHAM 5.2 NW                7.19 IN   0615 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               

..MOORE COUNTY  
  
2 WSW WHISPERING PINES       7.45 IN   0800 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
WHISPERING PINES 1.0 SW      7.20 IN   0800 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
                  
   
..ORANGE COUNTY  
  
HILLSBOROUGH 8.4 NNE         10.49 IN  0840 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
HILLSBOROUGH 7.4 NW          10.43 IN  0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
CHAPEL HILL 4.5 WSW          10.22 IN  0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
HILLSBOROUGH 5.6 NNW         9.96 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
CARRBORO 0.7 NNE             9.82 IN   0800 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
DURHAM 6.7 WNW               9.80 IN   0800 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
CHAPEL HILL 4.7 SW           9.57 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
DUKE FOREST DURHAM 11 W      9.36 IN   1100 AM 07/07   HADS                   
DURHAM                       9.28 IN   1045 AM 07/07   CWOP                   
CHAPEL HILL 2.0 NNE          9.20 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
EFLAND 4.0 NNW               9.10 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
HILLSBOROUGH 0.6 NNW         8.89 IN   0800 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
EFLAND                       8.75 IN   1055 AM 07/07   CWOP                   
CHAPEL HILL 4.3 WSW          8.70 IN   0730 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
HILLSBOROUGH 1.8 S           8.41 IN   0800 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
CARRBORO 0.8 SE              8.36 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
HILLSBOROUGH 1.5 NE          8.36 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
CARRBORO 0.6 NNE             8.32 IN   0602 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
0.5 SE CARRBORO              8.00 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COOP                   
CHAPEL HILL 8.2 W            7.92 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
CHAPEL HILL                  7.88 IN   1229 AM 07/07   CWOP                   
DUKE FOREST MET STA NR CHAPE 7.82 IN   1016 AM 07/07   RAWS                   
CHAPEL HILL 7.2 WSW          7.76 IN   0800 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
CHAPEL HILL 4.0 WNW          7.73 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
CHAPEL HILL 9.4 W            7.69 IN   0730 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
HURDLE MILLS                 7.58 IN   1045 AM 07/07   CWOP                   
ROUGEMONT 4.7 SW             7.54 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
CHAPEL HILL 11.4 W           7.53 IN   0715 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
HILLSBOROUGH 4.0 SSW         7.48 IN   0600 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
1 SE CHAPEL HILL             7.33 IN   0700 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
HILLSBOROUGH 2.8 SSW         7.27 IN   0709 AM 07/07   COCORAHS               
2 NNE CHAPEL HILL            7.21 IN   1105 AM 07/07   AWS                    
                   
   
..PERSON COUNTY  
  
HURDLE MILLS 5.2 NNW         9.15 IN   0800 AM 07/07   COCORAHS

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This was a huge forecasting miss in the rainfall department. The watches hoisted explicitly stated 1-3” with isolated totals to 5”. We ended up seeing widespread 4-7” totals with isolated amounts to nearly 1 foot! At least the areas were correctly identified from a watch standpoint but there is a huge difference between a watch for 1-3” of rain and isolated flash flooding and what happened including historic river flooding. This needs to be reexamined as to why forecasts were so grossly off for rainfall totals. Tropical systems are generally “easy” to forecast in this department as the are organized and have many runs of computer models analyzing ongoing convection so you don’t usually misses of this caliber with an organized tropical system

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To my post above, one thing I believe may have happened here was the circulation was much more mature and deeper than forecasters had expected. A storm that had been forecast to degenerate into a trough in the Carolina’s largely kept its surface circulation intact into the mid Atlantic. This led to a much stronger southerly and easterly flow which enhanced moisture transport and efficiency longer than expected so the “core” was able to sustain itself longer than expected. I think when you see weak storms hit land a lot of times they kind of vanish inland and just their moisture is left but when they become more vertically stacked and mature it takes them longer to wind down and you can see a core of heavy rain sustain itself longer. That’s my 0.02 as to why Chantal was so much worse than forecast this weekend

  • Thanks 1
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This was a huge forecasting miss in the rainfall department. The watches hoisted explicitly stated 1-3” with isolated totals to 5”. We ended up seeing widespread 4-7” totals with isolated amounts to nearly 1 foot! At least the areas were correctly identified from a watch standpoint but there is a huge difference between a watch for 1-3” of rain and isolated flash flooding and what happened including historic river flooding. This needs to be reexamined as to why forecasts were so grossly off for rainfall totals. Tropical systems are generally “easy” to forecast in this department as the are organized and have many runs of computer models analyzing ongoing convection so you don’t usually misses of this caliber with an organized tropical system

The Hires NAM did a good job (blind squirrel). I can't recall any other tropical system that had the same kind of totals that didn't feature either a stall for a significant period of time or some kind of mesoscale training thunderstorms far away from the center. Most of the precip fell within a 6-12 hour period and featured the core of the TS

nam3km_apcpn_neus_16.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...