WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 04:09 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 04:09 PM Barry and Chantal are reminders that under the right conditions tropical systems and their remnants can bring catastrophic impacts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 02:53 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:53 AM There were numerous crazy high 24 hour rainfall amounts in C NC! It’s been over 25 years (almost back to when World Wide Web came into existence) since widespread very heavy 24 hour rainfall amounts like these occurred in this region: Insanity: PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1134 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025 ...24 HOUR PRECIPITATION REPORTS OVER 7 INCHES ENDING AT 8AM FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL... LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ..NORTH CAROLINA ..ALAMANCE COUNTY MEBANE 3.0 SSW 9.73 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS BURLINGTON 3.9 NNW 8.01 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS 0.5 SW HAW RIVER 7.79 IN 1045 AM 07/07 COOP 1.3 SE GRAHAM 7.62 IN 0705 AM 07/07 COOP ..CHATHAM COUNTY 2.4 N MONCURE 11.92 IN 1045 AM 07/07 COOP PITTSBORO 8.8 NNE 11.53 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS PITTSBORO 5.0 NE 10.37 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS PITTSBORO 3.3 NNW 10.35 IN 0849 AM 07/07 COCORAHS PITTSBORO 10.15 IN 1055 AM 07/07 CWOP CHAPEL HILL 5.9 SW 10.05 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS PITTSBORO 5.4 WSW 9.44 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 8.6 SSW 9.25 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS PITTSBORO 0.8 NNW 9.12 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS SILER CITY 6.6 ENE 9.10 IN 0640 AM 07/07 COCORAHS SILER CITY 8.1 ENE 8.14 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS GOLDSTON 3.8 N 7.94 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS SILER CITY 7.2 NE 7.54 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS SILER CITY 7.23 IN 1055 AM 07/07 CWOP SILER CITY 7.10 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS ..DURHAM COUNTY DURHAM 4.6 WNW 8.46 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS DURHAM 5.8 NW 8.23 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 7.26 IN 1100 AM 07/07 CWOP DURHAM 5.2 NW 7.19 IN 0615 AM 07/07 COCORAHS ..MOORE COUNTY 2 WSW WHISPERING PINES 7.45 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS WHISPERING PINES 1.0 SW 7.20 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS ..ORANGE COUNTY HILLSBOROUGH 8.4 NNE 10.49 IN 0840 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 7.4 NW 10.43 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 4.5 WSW 10.22 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 5.6 NNW 9.96 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CARRBORO 0.7 NNE 9.82 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS DURHAM 6.7 WNW 9.80 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 4.7 SW 9.57 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS DUKE FOREST DURHAM 11 W 9.36 IN 1100 AM 07/07 HADS DURHAM 9.28 IN 1045 AM 07/07 CWOP CHAPEL HILL 2.0 NNE 9.20 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS EFLAND 4.0 NNW 9.10 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 0.6 NNW 8.89 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS EFLAND 8.75 IN 1055 AM 07/07 CWOP CHAPEL HILL 4.3 WSW 8.70 IN 0730 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 1.8 S 8.41 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CARRBORO 0.8 SE 8.36 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 1.5 NE 8.36 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CARRBORO 0.6 NNE 8.32 IN 0602 AM 07/07 COCORAHS 0.5 SE CARRBORO 8.00 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COOP CHAPEL HILL 8.2 W 7.92 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 7.88 IN 1229 AM 07/07 CWOP DUKE FOREST MET STA NR CHAPE 7.82 IN 1016 AM 07/07 RAWS CHAPEL HILL 7.2 WSW 7.76 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 4.0 WNW 7.73 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 9.4 W 7.69 IN 0730 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HURDLE MILLS 7.58 IN 1045 AM 07/07 CWOP ROUGEMONT 4.7 SW 7.54 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS CHAPEL HILL 11.4 W 7.53 IN 0715 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 4.0 SSW 7.48 IN 0600 AM 07/07 COCORAHS 1 SE CHAPEL HILL 7.33 IN 0700 AM 07/07 COCORAHS HILLSBOROUGH 2.8 SSW 7.27 IN 0709 AM 07/07 COCORAHS 2 NNE CHAPEL HILL 7.21 IN 1105 AM 07/07 AWS ..PERSON COUNTY HURDLE MILLS 5.2 NNW 9.15 IN 0800 AM 07/07 COCORAHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:11 PM This was a huge forecasting miss in the rainfall department. The watches hoisted explicitly stated 1-3” with isolated totals to 5”. We ended up seeing widespread 4-7” totals with isolated amounts to nearly 1 foot! At least the areas were correctly identified from a watch standpoint but there is a huge difference between a watch for 1-3” of rain and isolated flash flooding and what happened including historic river flooding. This needs to be reexamined as to why forecasts were so grossly off for rainfall totals. Tropical systems are generally “easy” to forecast in this department as the are organized and have many runs of computer models analyzing ongoing convection so you don’t usually misses of this caliber with an organized tropical system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 02:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:19 PM To my post above, one thing I believe may have happened here was the circulation was much more mature and deeper than forecasters had expected. A storm that had been forecast to degenerate into a trough in the Carolina’s largely kept its surface circulation intact into the mid Atlantic. This led to a much stronger southerly and easterly flow which enhanced moisture transport and efficiency longer than expected so the “core” was able to sustain itself longer than expected. I think when you see weak storms hit land a lot of times they kind of vanish inland and just their moisture is left but when they become more vertically stacked and mature it takes them longer to wind down and you can see a core of heavy rain sustain itself longer. That’s my 0.02 as to why Chantal was so much worse than forecast this weekend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Tuesday at 03:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:16 PM 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: This was a huge forecasting miss in the rainfall department. The watches hoisted explicitly stated 1-3” with isolated totals to 5”. We ended up seeing widespread 4-7” totals with isolated amounts to nearly 1 foot! At least the areas were correctly identified from a watch standpoint but there is a huge difference between a watch for 1-3” of rain and isolated flash flooding and what happened including historic river flooding. This needs to be reexamined as to why forecasts were so grossly off for rainfall totals. Tropical systems are generally “easy” to forecast in this department as the are organized and have many runs of computer models analyzing ongoing convection so you don’t usually misses of this caliber with an organized tropical system The Hires NAM did a good job (blind squirrel). I can't recall any other tropical system that had the same kind of totals that didn't feature either a stall for a significant period of time or some kind of mesoscale training thunderstorms far away from the center. Most of the precip fell within a 6-12 hour period and featured the core of the TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Thursday at 08:34 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:34 PM verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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