2025-2026 Winter Speculation Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro weeklies are crazy cold on the control run and very cold on the mean run.  The Euro control drops a large amount of snow over the Tenn Valley for December.  Now....we have seen the Euro be too cold for December.  It is still shoulder season, but we take today's run and run with it.

[John1122]

1962-63 is one of the legendary winters ever here and many other places. It featured a QBO falling deeply negative from fall into winter. Was a weakish La Nina. It had an SSW event. The PDO was negative. The PDO is currently negative. October 1962 was warm, but finally got cold around October 19th. This year was warm, and it finally got cold here and frosted on October 20th. A strong cold front passed in early November and brought light snow to the region, there was even a dusting in lower elevations. After that cold front and snow event, the temp warmed and the warmest temperatures of the month were mid month and late month, as temperatures yo-yo'd a bit. The first few days of December were very warm, then the bottom fell out and December ended -7.

 

The 60s were extreme, but since 2013/14 we've gotten closer to it's weather patterns. Just in a somewhat warmer world. We went years without extreme cold after 1996 and into the early 2010s (nothing sub zero). Since then we've seen sub zero cold invade multiple times and it's back to happening at least 2 to 3 of every 5 or so years. 

Weather is never exactly the same but large scale patterns will always come back. Like we will eventually get another blizzard or very anomalous snowfall event. A widespread 14-20+ inch type event. The gulf, Texas and deep south have had such events in this enhanced winter pattern we've been in since 2013/14 brought back the subzero weather that had disappeared. 

[Carvers Gap]

8 hours ago, John1122 said:

1962-63 is one of the legendary winters ever here and many other places. It featured a QBO falling deeply negative from fall into winter. Was a weakish La Nina. It had an SSW event. The PDO was negative. The PDO is currently negative. October 1962 was warm, but finally got cold around October 19th. This year was warm, and it finally got cold here and frosted on October 20th. A strong cold front passed in early November and brought light snow to the region, there was even a dusting in lower elevations. After that cold front and snow event, the temp warmed and the warmest temperatures of the month were mid month and late month, as temperatures yo-yo'd a bit. The first few days of December were very warm, then the bottom fell out and December ended -7.

 

The 60s were extreme, but since 2013/14 we've gotten closer to it's weather patterns. Just in a somewhat warmer world. We went years without extreme cold after 1996 and into the early 2010s (nothing sub zero). Since then we've seen sub zero cold invade multiple times and it's back to happening at least 2 to 3 of every 5 or so years. 

Weather is never exactly the same but large scale patterns will always come back. Like we will eventually get another blizzard or very anomalous snowfall event. A widespread 14-20+ inch type event. The gulf, Texas and deep south have had such events in this enhanced winter pattern we've been in since 2013/14 brought back the subzero weather that had disappeared. 

Great post, and a great analog.  Pretty amazing to see that type of correlation.  

[Carvers Gap]

Haha.  The CFSv2 is straight up frigid w/ its seasonal run today - bone chilling.  February was just ridiculous.

[nrgjeff]

Strato is active but might struggle to reflect to the 500 mb for a bit longer. For now we can enjoy the cold snap early next week. Even if it does get mild again, my gut says more cold beginning of Dec.

Snow cover is increasing again on the Rutgers chart after a pause. Physical Sciences Lab checks out for Siberia, China, Alaska pressure and temps. Nothing screams like what I shared a couple weeks ago, but it's leaning the right (cool / cold) direction. At least I don't discern warm torchy signals there. 

PSL Map Room: Global Circulation (Quick Menu): NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory charts update despite the red banner top. Prolly automated.