Powerball Posted yesterday at 12:21 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:21 AM A pretty broad moderate risk area has been issued for North Texas and Southern Oklahoma, including at least a portion of DFW. Main threat seems to be damaging straight line winds, wirh pretty strong wording in the SPC outlook of 80-100 MPH winds. Shear values in/of themselves aren't the most impressive (although still sufficient), but with the NW flow advecting in drier air aloft and strong surface heating expected, downburst potential is unusually high (especially once a cold pool gets established). Very large hail will be a secondary threat with any supercells early on with the steep mid-level lapse rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 20 hours ago Author Share Posted 20 hours ago Updated Day 1 Outlook has expanded the Moderate Risk area, as well as the highest hail/tornado probabilities, to include all of DFW. In fact, latest SPC wording mentions hail up to 5" in diameter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 12 hours ago Author Share Posted 12 hours ago This made me laugh (I think it was their delivery)... https://x.com/TheShawnHendrix/status/1931718406912311314?t=DexunR-LH_Bybk9Bix1nMQ&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago The latest HRRR has a large heavy squall line heading towards Fort Worth tonight. I think these could be storms with a higher chance of wind damage. Parameters are going to be very high for supercells in the area where storm-relative helicity gets locally higer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 12 hours ago Author Share Posted 12 hours ago In addition to the squall line itself, CAMs have hinted at some discrete supercells ahead of it impacting the northern DFW suburbs. That will have to be watched closely as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 12 hours ago Author Share Posted 12 hours ago SPC is considering a Watch soon for this area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 12 hours ago Author Share Posted 12 hours ago https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1196.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago FWD presents a possible fly in the ointment with respect to high-end severe potential. It wouldn't be a DFW severe weather setup if there wasn't one. Take it for what it's worth... Quote The biggest change to this afternoon forecast package is that some of the latest CAM guidance is now highlighting a low potential for the clusters currently located near Childress to grow upscale and blow through the region this afternoon. This presents us with two scenarios: Scenario 1 has already been discussed ad-nauseam Quote Scenario 2 is that the the clusters that are currently to our west expand and inhibit significant strengthening of the late evening activity. This is the less likely scenario, but if it does occur we would see a lesser swath of intense winds across North Texas. We`ll continue to monitor this potential as there is currently an expanding coverage of storms to the northwest of Wichita Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 8 hours ago Author Share Posted 8 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 8 hours ago Author Share Posted 8 hours ago Either a PDS Severe Watch or Tornado Watch is coming shortly for parts of North / NW Texas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago It’s hailing just to the’east of Longview 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma Western North Texas and Low Rolling Plains * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 105 mph likely Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 5 inches in diameter possible A few tornadoes likely SUMMARY...Increasing intense severe storm development is expected through late afternoon into evening. This will include initial supercells capable of very large hail with a tornado risk, but a prominent potential for widespread damaging winds should evolve this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago Tornado Warning TXC119-277-082145- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0047.250608T2111Z-250608T2145Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 411 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Delta County in north central Texas... Southwestern Lamar County in north central Texas... * Until 445 PM CDT. * At 410 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Roxton, or 16 miles southwest of Paris, moving southeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Big Creek Lake around 420 PM CDT. Cooper around 425 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Gadston and Ben Franklin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3352 9583 3356 9576 3346 9554 3334 9571 TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 321DEG 13KT 3349 9574 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN $$ Stalley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC363-082230- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0371.250608T2121Z-250608T2230Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 421 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Palo Pinto County in north central Texas... * Until 530 PM CDT. * At 421 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of Possum Kingdom Lake, or 22 miles northeast of Ranger, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * This severe thunderstorm will be near... Lake Palo Pinto around 445 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Brazos, Lone Camp, Santo, and New Salem. This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 378 and 389. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3279 9806 3251 9807 3251 9809 3267 9857 3286 9858 TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 287DEG 16KT 3274 9846 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ Stalley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago This nearly maxes out reflectivity, tornado warning at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago The showers moving east out of Jack County bear watching. They could potentially intensify to severe t'storms like the cells in Palo Pinto County, which would pose a problem for DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago I don’t think the a scenario 2 is going to happen unfortunately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, canderson said: I don’t think the a scenario 2 is going to happen unfortunately It kind of has, although coverage is not really widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Just now, Powerball said: It kind of has, although coverage is not really widespread. True, that cell near McKinney especially. But it’s very sporadic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 13 minutes ago, canderson said: True, that cell near McKinney especially. But it’s very sporadic. And the supercell down around Stephenville. It's producing massive anvil/outflow blowoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Right now some of the most dangerous storms are east of Lubbock and NW of Oklahoma City. I've really only heard of tornado(es) on the north side of the TX panhandle, nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago More than one three to four inch hail marker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Huge reflectivity/velocity rotation with this storm at Rotan, Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Chinook said: Huge reflectivity/velocity rotation with this storm at Rotan, Texas I think I saw an 80+ dBZ reflectivity earlier. Absolutely bonkers hailers today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Dallas is now in the middle of this PDS watch Quote The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southwest Arkansas Northwest Louisiana Southeast Oklahoma North-Central and Northeast Texas * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 830 PM until 400 AM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds expected with scattered significant gusts to 100 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A few tornadoes possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago Just got the notification for a Destructive Wind Warning (80 MPH) here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 59 minutes ago Author Share Posted 59 minutes ago Scenario #2 from FWD's AFD ended up panning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: Scenario #2 from FWD's AFD ended up panning out. It does look that way - how is the wind though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted 49 minutes ago Author Share Posted 49 minutes ago 2 minutes ago, canderson said: It does look that way - how is the wind though? At least in Collin / Denron Counties, there were numerous 60-70 MPH wind gusts, which any other day if not for all the hype would be a solid severe weather event. It is rapidly turning into a Flash Flood situation for DFW now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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