TV Severe Weather2025-?

[KakashiHatake2000]

I’m in the middle Tennessee area East of i65

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[Runman292]

Considering the timing, the wind threat must be pretty substantial to extend the enhanced risk into the western part of East TN.

[jaxjagman]

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER
   OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds and embedded tornadoes
   will accompany an intense squall line across much of the lower/mid
   Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong
   tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line
   across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Gulf
   Coast regions. The severe wind and tornado threat will likely
   persist through tonight across portions of the Ohio
   Valley/Southeast.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio
   Valley/Midwest...
   Pronounced upper troughing over the northern/central Plains late
   this morning will further amplify through the period as it ejects
   east-northeastward across much of the MS Valley/Midwest. A 992 mb
   surface low over northern MO will likewise develop northeastward
   across the Midwest through the day, reaching northeast IL/northwest
   IN by this evening and northern Lower MI by the end of the period.
   Primary low-level jet will focus northward across the OH
   Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, with a trailing/southern
   portion present across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley.
   Associated strong low-level warm/moist advection will continue to
   occur ahead of a sharp surface cold front that is expected to sweep
   quickly east-southeastward through tonight over much of the
   lower/mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast.

   Low-level moisture remains fairly shallow/limited ahead of the cold
   front per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed
   soundings (ILX, SGF, JAN, LIX). Still, generally 50s surface
   dewpoints should be present in a narrow warm sector across the OH
   Valley/Midwest by late afternoon/early evening, with somewhat
   greater moisture (upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints) southward
   into the lower/mid MS Valley. Large-scale ascent attendant to the
   approaching upper trough will aid in the erosion of a substantial
   cap noted along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon (18-20Z).
   With even modest/filtered daytime heating, at least weak instability
   should develop in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. This gradual
   destabilization will support the potential for rapid thunderstorm
   development within the next few hours.

   General consensus of latest guidance is that a QLCS will quickly
   strengthen/consolidate through the mid to late afternoon into the
   evening as it moves quickly eastward across AR/MO and the lower/mid
   MS Valley and lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt
   associated with a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet
   overspreading the warm sector will support organization with the
   maturing QLCS. Given the expected strength of the flow in the
   boundary layer (50-60+ kt), numerous to potentially widespread
   severe/damaging winds up to 60-80 mph are expected wherever the QLCS
   can remain surface based. Strong low-level shear will also be
   present to foster embedded mesocirculations and the potential for
   several QLCS tornadoes.

   The opportunity for supercells to develop ahead of the squall line
   remains uncertain, as residual low-level capping may inhibit open
   warm sector development. Still, greater instability should be
   present from the western KY/TN vicinity southward into the lower MS
   Valley. Any supercells that can form ahead of the line across these
   areas and/or remain at least semi-discrete within the line could
   produce strong (EF-2+) tornadoes, as low-level shear and related
   elongated/curved hodographs will be quite favorable for updraft
   rotation. Although boundary-layer instability will become
   increasingly weak with northward extent into the OH Valley tonight,
   a continued threat for numerous severe/damaging winds will likely
   continue with the QLCS as it shifts eastward across the OH/TN
   Valleys and much of the Southeast this evening through early Monday
   morning. Have therefore expanded/combined the wind-driven Enhanced
   Risk areas in southern/central MS/AL into western GA and eastern TN.
   Some chance for pre-frontal supercells and strong tornado potential
   ahead of the QLCS may also exist late tonight across portions of
   southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA.

[KakashiHatake2000]

Doritos nacho cheese chip risk


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[jaxjagman]

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 59
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   820 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northern Alabama
     Far Northwest Georgia
     Middle into Eastern Tennessee

   * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 820 PM
     until 300 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 0.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Broken bands of severe thunderstorms will move across the
   Watch area this evening into the overnight.  A few stronger cells
   embedded within the bands will potentially pose the greatest severe
   risk.  A few tornadoes, including the potential for a couple of
   strong tornadoes, and severe gusts 60-80 mph are the main threats
   with the stronger thunderstorms.

[jaxjagman]

Those discreet cells headed towardsSouthern Tn./AL could possibly spawn a tor cell towards those parts,models didnt do a very good job with this system so far but severe is always harder than snow if you look at models

[KakashiHatake2000]

Yeah tornado warned in tishomingo Ms moving into al and Tennessee valley weather covering it


.

[jaxjagman]

10 minutes ago, KakashiHatake2000 said:

Yeah tornado warned in tishomingo Ms moving into al and Tennessee valley weather covering it


.

Gonna be a nice light show anyways in our parts

[jaxjagman]

 Mesoscale Discussion 0256
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1002 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   Areas affected...far northwestern Alabama and south central Middle
   Tennessee

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 59...

   Valid 160302Z - 160430Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 59 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado risk increasing.

   DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell has shown persistent rotation and
   strengthening over the last 30-45 minutes near the TN/AL state line.
   A second cell has also shown persistent rotation to the north of to
   the north of the TN state line. This is on the southern end of a
   cluster of cells ahead of the main squall line back to the west on
   the edge of the 60 F dew points. Within this region, STP around 2 is
   analyzed in surface objective analysis, with VAD profiles from KBNA
   and KGWX showing large low-level curvature in hodographs. This
   corridor will pose a relatively higher risk for tornadoes over the
   next 1-2 hours given the favorable shear and thermodynamic
   environment.

[KakashiHatake2000]

Right absolutely also tor warning in Columbia


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[jaxjagman]

Yeah rotation headed towards Spring Hill

[jaxjagman]

Kooks close to Lanton ATM

[KakashiHatake2000]

Lots of severe thunderstorm warnings filling in


.

[jaxjagman]

Its dying out now

[KakashiHatake2000]

Gotcha


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[jaxjagman]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1038 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

TNC187-160400-
/O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260316T0400Z/
Williamson TN-
1038 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
WILLIAMSON COUNTY...

At 1037 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Thompson`s Station, or 8 miles south of Franklin,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

[jaxjagman]

knocked out power for about 10 min,nice strorm anyways,no tornadoes

[KakashiHatake2000]

Gotcha glad you stayed safe despite power outage


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[GBOVolz]

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[nrgjeff]

That could happen if we get a Rockies trough and Mid Atlantic ridge. All 3 major weekly products have AN heights in the Mid Atlantic, but normal out West. Would be enough if a system or two pass through that flow. 

Until then I don't see much exciting. Might get wind/hail outlooks (like Day 3 Sunday from Friday) but the WNW flow should keep tornado outlooks in check for 10+ days. We'll see what April brings. 

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

That could happen if we get a Rockies trough and Mid Atlantic ridge. All 3 major weekly products have AN heights in the Mid Atlantic, but normal out West. Would be enough if a system or two pass through that flow. 

Until then I don't see much exciting. Might get wind/hail outlooks (like Day 3 Sunday from Friday) but the WNW flow should keep tornado outlooks in check for 10+ days. We'll see what April brings. 

Was hoping the models would change with time but i reckon they arent.There was some signs the MJO would reappear into Africa  but this seems to be nothing but a Rossby wave,Then the next few days another Rossby Wave will seemingly destroy the MJO signal into the WH.

Oh well,enjoy the dry 20-25 AN temps this weekend,good weekend to go out and do things.

By the map Vol posted seems reasonable to me,the ridge out west has to move east and its not going to happen for several days by the ensembles.

 

[jaxjagman]

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
512 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

...NWS Damage Survey for 03/15/2026 Tornado Event - Update #4...

.Update...Date/time correction.

.Overview...Middle Tennessee was impacted by a strong storm
system that brought widespread strong to severe thunderstorms during the
evening and overnight hours of March 15, 2026. Storms produced
damaging straight-line winds, isolated large hail, and three
tornadoes. Strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts also occurred
during that afternoon. A sharp cold front led to a drastic drop in
temperatures the morning of March 16 which also brought
accumulating snowfall to the Cumberland Plateau.

..Ft. Campbell EF0...

Rating:                 EF0
Estimated Peak Wind:    75 mph
Path Length /statute/:  5.05 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   200 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             03/15/2026
Start Time:             09:35 PM CDT
Start Location:         4 SSE Fort Campbell North / Montgomery
County / KY
Start Lat/Lon:          36.5999 / -87.4486

End Date:               03/15/2026
End Time:               09:40 PM CDT
End Location:           3 ESE Oak Grove / Montgomery County / KY
End Lat/Lon:            36.6407 / -87.378

Survey Summary:
A weak tornado impacted portions of  Clarksville. The tornado
began in a neighborhood on Fort Campbell. Damage consisted of
shingles off the roofs as well as some small tree limbs snapped.
The tornado continued east toward Highway 41, where an overhang
structure was blown down at a car wash. The tornado then moved
northeast through additional neighborhoods and across Outlaw
Airfield. Damage in the neighborhoods included rotten trees
downed, tree branches snapped, downed fences, shingles blown off
roofs, and occasional vinyl siding and metal metal fascia. The
tornado crossed Outlaw Field and uprooted a few trees on a farm
just northeast of the airfield. The tornado then continued
northeast into a large residential neighborhood causing
additional minor structural and roof damage to several homes and
snapping small tree limbs. The tornado dissipated somewhere near
the TN/KY state line in an open field south of Interstate 24 as
no additional damage was found north of Allen Rd.

..Mt. Pleasant/Columbia EF1...

Rating:                 EF1
Estimated Peak Wind:    90 mph
Path Length /statute/:  16.53 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   500 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             03/15/2026
Start Time:             10:06 PM CDT
Start Location:         1 NNE Mount Pleasant / Maury County / TN
Start Lat/Lon:          35.5591 / -87.1848

End Date:               03/15/2026
End Time:               10:25 PM CDT
End Location:           3 SSW Spring Hill / Maury County / TN
End Lat/Lon:            35.6966 / -86.9494

Survey Summary:
The tornado began along Highway 43 in Mount Pleasant. Many trees
were uprooted or had broken limbs along the highway and
interstate. A few homes and barns had metal roofing blown off.The
tornado continued northeast into Columbia, impacting
neighborhoods and Columbia State Community College. Tree damage
was noted frequently. Structural damage to homes was also noted,
mainly to vinyl siding, shingles, and metal fascia. There was one
building on Columbia State Community College that sustained roof
damage, as well as fencing on the ball fields. Next in the damage
path was an industrial area along the Duck River. Many trees were
uprooted, snapped, or sustained many broken branches. Several
buildings lost metal roofing, and one larger metal building
system had a portion of the south facing wall caved in.The
tornado then moved back into residential areas, causing
occasional trees down or branches broken, shingle damage, and
damage to vinyl siding. The tornado ended along Green Mills Road
in northern Maury County, just prior to reaching Spring Hill.

.Lexington/Bonnertown EF1...

Rating:                 EF1
Estimated Peak Wind:    105 mph
Path Length /statute/:  14.57 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   400 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             03/15/2026
Start Time:             10:48 PM CDT
Start Location:         1 W Lexington / Lauderdale County / AL
Start Lat/Lon:          34.9671 / -87.3831

End Date:               03/15/2026
End Time:               11:04 PM CDT
End Location:           1 E Minor Hill / Giles County / TN
End Lat/Lon:            35.0368 / -87.1486

Survey Summary:
A storm survey team determined that a tornado touched down in an
open field west of Earnest Street and south of Highway 4 in
Lexington. As it approached Earnest Street, it caused an open
outdoor structure propped up on cinder blocks to slide to the
north as well as snapped 4x4s and uprooted trees. The tornado
tracked northeast toward Lexington City Hall and caused minor
roof damage to five structures. Continuing northeast, the tornado
uprooted numerous trees along Highway 64 before crossing highway
59. Along the way, multiple trees were snapped, homes had siding
damage, several small open structures collapsed, and a garage
door was blown in. It continued snapping and uprooting trees as
it approached the state line.The tornado crossed the
Tennessee/Alabama state line and moved northeast, continuing for
10 more miles in Tennessee. In Bonnertown, many residences were
impacted, with several homes damaged. A few manufactured homes
were moved off their piers, and a couple mobile homes were lofted
or slid, remaining in tact. Other structural damage included
missing awnings, removed shingles, carports thrown, and trees
falling onto the structures. Several farm outbuildings were
damaged. Numerous trees were snapped or uprooted. Beyond
Bonnertown, the tornado continued east along Appleton Road,
downing trees and destroying a chicken farm. As the tornado
crossed into Giles County, damage was mostly trees downed or
uprooted, and branches snapped. A few structures were impacted in
Giles County south to southwest of Minor Hill due to trees
falling. A few metal farm outbuildings were also collapsed. The
tornado ended quickly south-southeast of Minor Hill.