TV Severe Weather2025-?

[KakashiHatake2000]

I’m in the middle Tennessee area East of i65

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[Runman292]

Considering the timing, the wind threat must be pretty substantial to extend the enhanced risk into the western part of East TN.

[jaxjagman]

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER
   OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds and embedded tornadoes
   will accompany an intense squall line across much of the lower/mid
   Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong
   tornadoes are also possible within and just ahead of this line
   across parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and Gulf
   Coast regions. The severe wind and tornado threat will likely
   persist through tonight across portions of the Ohio
   Valley/Southeast.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast into the Ohio
   Valley/Midwest...
   Pronounced upper troughing over the northern/central Plains late
   this morning will further amplify through the period as it ejects
   east-northeastward across much of the MS Valley/Midwest. A 992 mb
   surface low over northern MO will likewise develop northeastward
   across the Midwest through the day, reaching northeast IL/northwest
   IN by this evening and northern Lower MI by the end of the period.
   Primary low-level jet will focus northward across the OH
   Valley/Midwest this afternoon and evening, with a trailing/southern
   portion present across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley.
   Associated strong low-level warm/moist advection will continue to
   occur ahead of a sharp surface cold front that is expected to sweep
   quickly east-southeastward through tonight over much of the
   lower/mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast.

   Low-level moisture remains fairly shallow/limited ahead of the cold
   front per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed
   soundings (ILX, SGF, JAN, LIX). Still, generally 50s surface
   dewpoints should be present in a narrow warm sector across the OH
   Valley/Midwest by late afternoon/early evening, with somewhat
   greater moisture (upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints) southward
   into the lower/mid MS Valley. Large-scale ascent attendant to the
   approaching upper trough will aid in the erosion of a substantial
   cap noted along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon (18-20Z).
   With even modest/filtered daytime heating, at least weak instability
   should develop in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. This gradual
   destabilization will support the potential for rapid thunderstorm
   development within the next few hours.

   General consensus of latest guidance is that a QLCS will quickly
   strengthen/consolidate through the mid to late afternoon into the
   evening as it moves quickly eastward across AR/MO and the lower/mid
   MS Valley and lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt
   associated with a strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level jet
   overspreading the warm sector will support organization with the
   maturing QLCS. Given the expected strength of the flow in the
   boundary layer (50-60+ kt), numerous to potentially widespread
   severe/damaging winds up to 60-80 mph are expected wherever the QLCS
   can remain surface based. Strong low-level shear will also be
   present to foster embedded mesocirculations and the potential for
   several QLCS tornadoes.

   The opportunity for supercells to develop ahead of the squall line
   remains uncertain, as residual low-level capping may inhibit open
   warm sector development. Still, greater instability should be
   present from the western KY/TN vicinity southward into the lower MS
   Valley. Any supercells that can form ahead of the line across these
   areas and/or remain at least semi-discrete within the line could
   produce strong (EF-2+) tornadoes, as low-level shear and related
   elongated/curved hodographs will be quite favorable for updraft
   rotation. Although boundary-layer instability will become
   increasingly weak with northward extent into the OH Valley tonight,
   a continued threat for numerous severe/damaging winds will likely
   continue with the QLCS as it shifts eastward across the OH/TN
   Valleys and much of the Southeast this evening through early Monday
   morning. Have therefore expanded/combined the wind-driven Enhanced
   Risk areas in southern/central MS/AL into western GA and eastern TN.
   Some chance for pre-frontal supercells and strong tornado potential
   ahead of the QLCS may also exist late tonight across portions of
   southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA.

[KakashiHatake2000]

Doritos nacho cheese chip risk


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