Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RVASnowLover]

UK is a nope 

[overcautionisbad]

[RVASnowLover]

Not even close on the UK. See what Dr. No says 

[overcautionisbad]

2 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

Not even close on the UK. See what Dr. No says 

If the Euro is back Imma be hyped UK or not

[CavalierHoo]

Please......just keep everything south for 2 more days......two more days.  We all know the north trend is just waiting to rear it's head.

[jlewis1111]

34 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

UK is a nope 

how did the UK score on the last storm?

[jlewis1111]

Remember guys Models made a big change last week at 0z tue night models. Im waiting for tonight 0z runs to see if any changes. Today is just noise imo til 0z tonight

[RVASnowLover]

2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

how did the UK score on the last storm?

I don’t remember offhand but it’s a good model. Believe surprisingly CMC did best with the last storm. It was always the most northern model and ended up being accurate 

[jlewis1111]

10 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

I don’t remember offhand but it’s a good model. Believe surprisingly CMC did best with the last storm. It was always the most northern model and ended up being accurate 

I disagree I think oddly enough that the NAM did the best as it sniffed out the north jump first

[Conway7305]

Euro AI did not come W….:/   Will see if Euro follows 

[RVASnowLover]

Euro was better aloft but not good at the surface 

[chris624wx]

ENC Coastal scrape

 

[RVASnowLover]

Giving it until tomorrow night but the trend on the Euro is not good at all

[Conway7305]

3 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

ENC Coastal scrape

 

On a positive.  It stopped trending E and came back W slightly. 

[RVASnowLover]

So close but yet still far away from being a hit. All the pieces will have to come together. 

[ldub23]

6 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

On a positive.  It stopped trending E and came back W slightly. 

Yea, a  little  better

[overcautionisbad]

Guess it will be important to watch the 18z and 0z

[chris624wx]

Keep in mind that these shortwaves (or lobes of vorticity) are still over the North Pacific so as they come ashore, we should start to get a better picture of what will happen of how they will interact with the ULL/trough dropping down 

[ldub23]

EURO AI was  better as well

[RVASnowLover]

EPS is a no 

[jlewis1111]

EURO was horrible with the past storm. Not sure why so many putting faith in it

[Avid6eek]

Being a cutoff upper low and not a shortwave passing off the coast, I don't think the standard NW trend applies here.  If that is what you are pinning your hopes on, expect dissappointment.  It's just as likely to be further east as it is west.

[RVASnowLover]

1 minute ago, Avid6eek said:

Being a cutoff upper low and not a shortwave passing off the coast, I don't think the standard NW trend applies here.  If that is what you are pinning your hopes on, expect dissappointment.  It's just as likely to be further east as it is west.

Agree. With this kind of setup its more common for it to trend east than west 

[Avid6eek]

There is no SE ridge that pumps up over consective model runs to push the low further NW.  Everything is going to be dictated by where the low cuts off and the natural thermal gradient between the coastline and gulf stream.  Just my $.02. 

[wasnow215]

EPS did come west some-North of say KD may be "game over" or close but we aren't in RVA, and those on here SE of us, Hampton, NN, Portsmouth, Va Beach, etc are squarely IN the game. Still 96 hours for changes to occur. 

[overcautionisbad]

Like I said this will likely be nice for Tidewater and next to nothing in Richmond once again. Tidewater is better positioned to get bif snow than Richmond. Just the facts

[ldub23]

I think all is  just  fine today.  I  know  from experience  if snow  gets to DC its  over for  us  in SEVA.

[ldub23]

From Wakefield

 

 One more
thing to note is with respect to SLRs with this storm- the ratios
will likely be much higher than 10:1 given how cold it will be
and with the lack of a warm nose in the 850-700 mb layer
(especially inland). The probs referenced above are for 10:1
ratios so actual probabilities for listed snow amounts may be
higher.

[ldub23]

Time  for a  model blackout  for  me. Ill come  back around this time tomorrow. Will know then if its done  and  cooked  or  alive and well.

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

From Wakefield

 

 One more
thing to note is with respect to SLRs with this storm- the ratios
will likely be much higher than 10:1 given how cold it will be
and with the lack of a warm nose in the 850-700 mb layer
(especially inland). The probs referenced above are for 10:1
ratios so actual probabilities for listed snow amounts may be
higher.

I could see where if somebody gets .2 inches of precipitation it will equate to 4 inches of snow with this system.