Summer maximum forecast contest -- final report -- congrats to Weather53, Rick in Baltimore, biodhokie

[RickinBaltimore]

2nd? I'll take it.

[Roger Smith]

All four locations just failed to increase values today (7th), RIC again at 100F. Must have been a scorcher in 1881 (104F DC, 101F BAL, and also in NYC, their all-time high so late in the year).

Last table may well have been final report, will confirm end of September. 

[WEATHER53]

You like me….You really like me.

Anybody  5 or lower was excellent!

[MN Transplant]

21 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

You like me….You really like me.

Anybody  5 or lower was excellent!

Nicely done!

We made up for the slow summer start with the last week. 

[Roger Smith]

Declaring contest to be final now. 

 

__ Max values 2023 (to date) __ 99 __ 100 __100 __101

The qualifier for rank is the separation of equal error totals by the rules outlined earlier. 

This table will be adjusted if or when necessary, and if not, it will be posted again in rank order later in the summer. 

(Note: errors underlined are subject to future increases as the forecasts are already below outcomes _ now applies to all locations.

 

FORECASTER (order of entry) _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC___ Errors ____Total__Rank__qualifier (what separates tied totals)

 

1. Weather53 (13) _______________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 ____ 0 1 0 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ 

 

2. RickinBaltimore ( 7 ) __________ 99 __100 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 0 0 0 2 ___2 ____ 2 __ lower 3rd lowest error (0)

3. biodhokie (25) ________________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _____0 1 1 0 ____2 ____ 3 __ higher 3rd lowest error (1)

4. WxUSAF ( 4 ) _________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 0 1 0 2 ___ 3 ____ 4 __ earlier entry of 0012

5. katabatic ( 9 ) _________________99 __ 98 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 0 2 0 1 ____3 ____ 5 __ 2nd earliest entry of 0012

6. tplbge (24) ___________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 ____1 0 2 0 ____3 ____ 6 __ later entry of 0012

7. nw baltimore wx ( 3 ) _________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 __100 ____ 0 1 1 1 ____ 3 ____ 7 __ earlier entry of 0111

8. GramaxRefugee (19) __________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 ____1 1 0 1 ____ 3 ____ 8 __ later entry of 0111

9. WinstonSalemArlington (22) __ 99 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 _____0 1 3 0____4 ____ 9 __ lowest 3rd lowest error (0)

10 MN Transplant ( 5 ) ___________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 1 1 0 2 ____4 ____10 __ lower lowest error (0) than 1111

11 Terpeast ( 6 ) _________________100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 _____1 1 1 1 _____4 ____11 __ earlier entry of 1111

12 Its a Breeze (12) ______________ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ____ 1 1 1 1 _____4 ____12 __ later entry of 0111

13 wxdude64 (16) _______________ 101 _ 99 _ 101 __ 102 ____ 2 1 1 1 ____ 5 ___ 13 __ earlier entry of 1112

14 toolsheds (18) ________________ 100 _ 98 _ 101 __ 102 ____ 1 2 1 1 ____ 5 ____14 __ later entry of 1112

15 NorthArlington101 (21) ________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 ____0 3 1 2 ____ 6 ____15 __ lower lowest error (0)

16 Stormpc (14) __________________98 _ 102 __ 101 __ 99 ____ 1 2 1 2 ____6 ____16 __ higher lowest error (1)

17 WxWatcher007 (11) ___________ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 _____1 3 1 2 ____7 ____17 __ earliest entry of 1123

18 mattie g (17) __________________ 101 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _____2 3 1 1 ____7 ____18 __ 2nd earliest entry of 1123

19 H2O (20) _____________________ 102 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 _____3 1 2 1 ____7 ____19 __latest entry of 1123

20 soundmdwatcher (23) ________ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _ 102 ____1 2 4 1 ____ 8 ____20

21 LittleVillageWx (10) ____________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 1 3 2 3 ____9 ____ 21 

22 ChillinIt (15) ___________________ 102 __ 98 _ 103 _ 104 ____ 3 2 3 3 ___11 ____22 

23 Roger Smith __________________ 102 _ 102 _ 103 _ 103 _____3 2 3 2 ___10 ____23

24 Rhino16 ( 2 ) __________________ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _ 105 _____2 3 2 4 ___11 ____24

25 StormchaserChuck1 ( 1 ) _____ 104 _ 103 _ 103 _ 104 _____5 3 3 3 ___14 ____25

26 GeorgeBM ( 8 ) _______________ 105 _ 103 _ 106 _ 104 _____6 3 6 3 ___18 ____26

______________________________

 

Thanks for entering and congratulations to Weather53 for a nearly flawless forecast, three of four forecasts correct and the fourth off by just one degree. Well done also to Rick in Baltimore who also had three correct, and one error of 2 deg. Third place biodhokie was correct on two, and off by only 1 deg on two others. 

The rankings depend partly on order of entry and essentially a lot of ranks are tied with better ranked forecasts since the ties are not copied forecasts but just similar patterns of errors at different locations. 

Looking forward to the first frost and snowfall contests.