New Year's Weekend Storm

[Carvers Gap]

The blocking showing up on the 0z GFS for the period after 168 is impressive. It's almost seems MORE impressive than the block we have just had. Take a look at this ensemble image from hr 192 to see what I am talking about. The EURO ensembles also show our negative NAO rebuilding. (west based) The lakes cutter that is going to occur this weekend really acts to reset the persistent blocking we have been in.

There even looks to be a hint here and there of a less negative, even slightly positive PNA around this time frame. It's been a long time since we have had a trough dig into the southwest with an NAO so negative. A met can correct me if I am wrong, but this is the type of look (west southwest flow) that can spit multiple disturbances out of the southwest and cause the threat of overrunning every couple of days. I wouldn't be surprised to see an icy/snowy look to the modeling as we move toward 1/5/11. Just my thoughts, but it looks almost certain we are heading back to a cooler/colder regime after the storm this weekend.

If this isn't the right place for this mods, please feel free to move it.

Posted a similar thought on the December thread(#1085 if you want to look at it). The trough that is forecast for North America after next weekend is a great set-up for folks in TN if it verifies and if we can get some disturbances to ride up along it.

[tnweathernut]

Posted a similar thought on the December thread(#1085 if you want to look at it). The trough that is forecast for North America after next weekend is a great set-up for folks in TN if it verifies and if we can get some disturbances to ride up along it.

I guess great minds think alike........haha. In all seriousness, it's a GREAT look and I hope it comes to fruition. By the way, how much snow did you guys get from this last storm? We ended with between 3 and 4 at my house in north JC, and ended with about 9 at my office in Erwin. I heard areas just to our west/northwest only got an inch or two.

[BNAwx]

I guess great minds think alike........haha. In all seriousness, it's a GREAT look and I hope it comes to fruition. By the way, how much snow did you guys get from this last storm? We ended with between 3 and 4 at my house in north JC, and ended with about 9 at my office in Erwin. I heard areas just to our west/northwest only got an inch or two.

I was in the Greeneville, TN area over the weekend and it looks like that area had about the same accums as Johnson City. It seems like the Erwin area always fares a little better than the surrounding area.

[tnweathernut]

I was in the Greeneville, TN area over the weekend and it looks like that area had about the same accums as Johnson City. It seems like the Erwin area always fares a little better than the surrounding area.

Yes, usually Unicoi and Erwin do well with certain snow setups. Anything involving northwest flow gives them enhanced snow being so close to the mountains. I was glad to see Nashville had a white Christmas. Nashville and south has done pretty well on average the past several years with regards to snow, however just north of Nashville has been a relative snow(hole). I am anxious for my buddies there in northern middle TN to get a good snow. Having a good ole fashion winter has been a long time coming for them.

[DaculaWeather]

Huntsville seems to be concerned about flooding

LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE MARKEDLY FOR THE NEW YEARS EVE-DAYTIMEFRAME AS THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND

SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO REACH

AT LEAST 1.3 INCHES IF NOT 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS AN ASTONISHING 300

PCT OF NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. THIS IS

ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HIGH SHEAR AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH FREEZING

LEVELS...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SFC-BASED CAPE. INDEED MODELS HAVE BEEN

CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING A 100MB-DEEP INVERSION...BUT WITH DECENT

ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THAT.

HIGH POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED FOR THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH NOT 100

PCT YET DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BEGINNING TO GET MORE CONCERNED

ABOUT THE HVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT FOR THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE

MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE...THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT

FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY BE ALLEVIATED BY THE FASTER MOTION OF THE

FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THUNDER IN THE FCST AS WELL...AND

GUSTY WINDS STILL LOOK GOOD REGARDLESS OF INSTABILITY IN LIGHT OF

30-50KT WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-3KFT. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A

SEVERE TSRA THREAT BUT FEEL THE FORCING/DYNAMICS ARE BETTER NORTH

WITH THE MAIN WAVE...AND THERMODYNAMICS ARE BETTER SOUTH.