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Holston_River_Rambler

January 7 - 8 ULL potential

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As suspected,  HRRR was grossly overdoing Downsloping here.  In actuality, all short range underforecasted amounts here. Closest was RGEM and NAM 12k I suppose.  Euro /Cmc as far as Med.range Mods.

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Looking back, obviously no model got this right and it was unlikely they ever would due to the nature of the ULL and the extreme microclimate that led to valley downsloping and kept the upper levels probably 1-2 degrees from being a major snow event. It feels like the GFS got it the most wrong, at least in my area. Probably for DB's area as well and for everyone who got sno in Middle Tennessee like Blue Moon.  Way too far east/progressive. It's been a major issue with the GFS all season and historically, except this year it's not even doing a strong NW trend as a rule. 

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10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Still getting some random flurries here this AM 

Same here. Had tiny flakes all day yesterday. These are actually dime sized with a penny or two mixed in. Clouds stayed thick overnight. Only down to 28 after what had looked like 21 or so would happen. 

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