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rolltide_130

March 18-20th Severe Weather Potential

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There is potential for a significant, multi-region severe weather threat for the very early part of next week on all major models. The 12z GFS, NAM, and EURO all show a shortwave ejecting out into the central and eastern U.S, and seem to be converging on a severe weather outbreak for multiple subforums. 

A sub 995mb low is forecast to traverse from KS into Southern MO/AR, and very strong moisture return is forecast to push up into parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Dixie, and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys ahead of this surface low, and both low level and deep layer shear is more than adequate for a potential multi region severe weather outbreak early next week..

stp.conus.png

 

stp.conus.png

 

 

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...and thus begins the typical 72 hour downtrend of recent years with the 00z runs and now the 06z GFS and NAM.

Trough is too fast and deamplifies too quickly to get a stronger low level wind response and thus shear profiles are less than ideal over most of the warm sector on Monday.

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9 hours ago, andyhb said:

...and thus begins the typical 72 hour downtrend of recent years with the 00z runs and now the 06z GFS and NAM.

Trough is too fast and deamplifies too quickly to get a stronger low level wind response and thus shear profiles are less than ideal over most of the warm sector on Monday.

At least SPC seems to be finally getting wise to it, or maybe it's just because they didn't let Broyles do the Day 3 outlook. If they had he'd have gone at least ENH if not MDT.

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