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jaxjagman

ENSO

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On 5/6/2020 at 5:37 PM, Windspeed said:

Region 3 is starting to nosedive. Looks like the precursor ENSO modeling has done really well this Spring as a La Niña does look to be developing....

 

 

 

CIPS Analog-Based Severe Probability Guidance.png

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Upwelling seemingly has done a job.Long range models are hinting at another KW   passing across the IDL after the Mid month .Could be some tropical genesis into the GOM afterwards towards June or just into if its correct

CIPS Analog-Based Severe Probability Guidance.png

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On 5/12/2020 at 1:06 PM, jaxjagman said:

Ninas knocking on the door

wkteq_xz_gif_680×880_.png

Looks like NINA rang the door bell and someone let her in

 

heat_last_year_gif_618×800_.png

wkteq_xz_gif_680×880_.png

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Super Nina winter blowtorch. Fades by spring. No severe. Guess who's despondent? Finally threw in the flag no chase trip.

Since the Plains May has been DOA 5/7 years in a row, it's time to take Dixie seriously and just chase around here in April. 

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On 5/19/2020 at 2:55 PM, nrgjeff said:

Super Nina winter blowtorch. Fades by spring. No severe. Guess who's despondent? Finally threw in the flag no chase trip.

Since the Plains May has been DOA 5/7 years in a row, it's time to take Dixie seriously and just chase around here in April. 

Sorry to hear of the no trip,i know you look forward to this every year :(

Its been a suck year so far for us here as well.Kids out of school(tho i think some kids might be happy about that..lol)No real graduation this year.

My wife also is going through breast cancer and doing chemo right now,not a great time for this with the CV :( Just saying also,its never a good time for breast cancer either way.Praying we make it through this anyways

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KW moving across the IDL.There is some differences of how strong the KW will be.The MJO tho looks as if it will slow down as it get into the NH in a few days,should either way put a hit on subsurface east of the IDL

wkteq_xz_gif_680×880_ (1).png

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Just food for thought,every single year the DMI dips below -0.8 there has always been some sort of a resurgent Nina the following winter.The most -ve was in Sept of 2016 where it hit -1.441.Some models show this potential especially the Euro

Desktop_screenshot.png

Climate_Model_Summary_Bureau_of_Meteorology (1).png

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Yeah I think we'll Nina this winter. KW will delay things a bit for summer. However the eastern Pac is in full easterly mode. Ventrice put something on Twitter including the Pac and Atlantic. I didn't comment, but it screams hot humid SER this summer.

My previous negativity aside, La Nina would tee up more Dixie Alley severe next spring. Saving it for the Plains seems silly. Guess we chase the Jungle in April!

Finally, Jax, this is all petty stuff compared to cancer. Praying your wife beats that, and praying for your whole family's strength through the battle.

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2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Yeah I think we'll Nina this winter. KW will delay things a bit for summer. However the eastern Pac is in full easterly mode. Ventrice put something on Twitter including the Pac and Atlantic. I didn't comment, but it screams hot humid SER this summer.

My previous negativity aside, La Nina would tee up more Dixie Alley severe next spring. Saving it for the Plains seems silly. Guess we chase the Jungle in April!

Finally, Jax, this is all petty stuff compared to cancer. Praying your wife beats that, and praying for your whole family's strength through the battle.

Thanks

I saw his post this morning

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1264525706215796736/photo/1

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