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jaxjagman

ENSO

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6 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

The Midwest can have it. Dixie had enough heartache for the season.

By the looks this would be a good call with a early terminating Nino into spring

US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability - IOPscience.png

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When we had the big outbreak in 2011 this was basically from a resurgent Nina into 2011.This is where the NA SST tripole was negative but started to transition  to +ve.The Enso is going to be a big player with out a doubt into next winter.Not sure i'd proclaim next winter as gloom or doom right yet.It seems possible next winter might be colder than you think it will be and warmer the next

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On 3/14/2020 at 7:56 PM, jaxjagman said:

Subsurface has cooled recently.Surface temps have rose recently which seemingly is by Kelvin and MJO.The Euro shows the MJO going into the IO then gradually lose the signal,we'll see if this is right because there seems to be signals the MJO will get into the Maritime stronger than the Euro shows today

wkteq_xz gif  680×880 .png

 

wkteq_xz gif  680×880  (1).png

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Gulf will also help severe season along. 

LOL the CFC flip flops on ENSO. Ahh, that spring predictability barrier. 

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With the passing MJO and Kelvin region 4 has cooled and  and 3.4 and 3 might finally surpass 4 as the warmer regions upcoming,this is where your warmer subsurface is at right now and 4 continues to get cooler down below

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Jamstec is now shifting towards LaNina but would fall back to more neutral into winter.It wasn't even showing a LaNina last update

SINTEX-F Familiy Climate Prediction |JAMSTEC.png

SINTEX-F Familiy Climate Prediction |JAMSTEC (1).png

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Region 3 is now the warm spot.The subsurface is now the warmest into 3 and 3,4.Models show a KW moving east of the IDL in a couple days.If the weeklies are right,region 3 will cool towards the middle of next month.

wkteq_xz gif  680×880  (2).png

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On 4/15/2020 at 11:15 PM, jaxjagman said:

Jamstec is now shifting towards LaNina but would fall back to more neutral into winter.It wasn't even showing a LaNina last update

SINTEX-F Familiy Climate Prediction |JAMSTEC.png

SINTEX-F Familiy Climate Prediction |JAMSTEC (1).png

Verbatim that is a good looking sea surface signature.    @nrgjeff, what do you think about the waters depicted in the GOA there?  Also, that is a pretty cold signature in the North Atlantic.  How might that affect us?

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28 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Verbatim that is a good looking sea surface signature.    @nrgjeff, what do you think about the waters depicted in the GOA there?  Also, that is a pretty cold signature in the North Atlantic.  How might that affect us?

You'd rather see the N/ATL  Tripole warm not cool,depending on other modes this screams +NAO

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18 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

You'd rather see the N/ATL  Tripole warm not cool,depending on other modes this screams +NAO

Also,if its even right of course at this range this would be seemingly  a time where you'd root for the EPO more than anything.Certainly would be a chance of a SER

SINTEX-F Familiy Climate Prediction |JAMSTEC (3).png

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Probably a trough West, endless SER. Note I'm still negative and jaded about weather right now.

On 4/17/2020 at 5:09 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Verbatim that is a good looking sea surface signature.    @nrgjeff, what do you think about the waters depicted in the GOA there?  Also, that is a pretty cold signature in the North Atlantic.  How might that affect us?

In all seriousness, that could be a screaming +NAO and jet stream. Winters are a total loss, even in a Solar Min.

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3 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Probably a trough West, endless SER. Note I'm still negative and jaded about weather right now.

In all seriousness, that could be a screaming +NAO and jet stream. Winters are a total loss, even in a Solar Min.

I was afraid of that.  Well, if we are going that direction then let's go with strong La Nina and cool the Pacific some so a better gradient returns during future winters.  I am not digging this cool April.  The West is working on a really good decade of winters.  

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I was afraid of that.  Well, if we are going that direction then let's go with strong La Nina and cool the Pacific some so a better gradient returns during future winters.  I am not digging this cool April.  The West is working on a really good decade of winters.  

This was the strongest +IOD on record compared to 1994 and 1997,both those years following in winter 1995 and 1998 made it to a moderate Nina  to strong Nina.Even in 2006 which is now the actual 4th most IOD event this went into a strong Nina and is the only IOD event that went into a more resurgent Nina in 2008.So seemingly this could be a more moderate Nina is not out of the question

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On 4/17/2020 at 2:59 PM, jaxjagman said:

Region 3 is now the warm spot.The subsurface is now the warmest into 3 and 3,4.Models show a KW moving east of the IDL in a couple days.If the weeklies are right,region 3 will cool towards the middle of next month.

wkteq_xz gif  680×880  (2).png

Subsurface continues to cool,besides region 3 

wkteq_xz gif  680×880 .png

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That might be helpful for my Kansas concerns in May. Looking even farther ahead, though quite imprecise, another wave of convection is flaring in the western IO. It's behind the DL wave Jax writes about. I'm hoping my second wave is crossing Indonesia (MJO maritime sub-cont) about late May. 

By then I feel the SER will be attempting a return, probably more so than NWP shows out weeks 3-5. If Holston is camping out West, Rockies trough LOL. Could be the ol' chaser rose colored goggles, but it's all on the satellites covering the Indian Ocean. Cheers!

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On 4/26/2020 at 12:47 PM, jaxjagman said:

Subsurface continues to cool,besides region 3 

wkteq_xz gif  680×880 .png

Subsurface continues to cool.By the looks right now into the 2nd week of May the MJO and Kelvin Wave could do some real damage into region 3 where the warmest waters are into the thermocline.Seemingly, we are fixing to see the start of Nina

wkteq_xz_gif_680×880_.png

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That stubborn 3 region is killing my Plains plans. Agree the KW may cut SSTs but it's a tough area for MJO convection. Perhaps late May the new pulse in the IO will have more influence.

Then for next winter hopefully not the dreaded warm version of Nina. I'm OK with sunny SER but the lack of snow is boring. Conundrum for sure!

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Region 3 is starting to nosedive. Looks like the precursor ENSO modeling has done really well this Spring as a La Niña does look to be developing....

 

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Yeah, also a +AMO. If the pattern does flip late and a +NAO roars into June and July, there's going to be some serious fireworks in the tropics w/ southerly hot & muggy flow across the greater Tennessee Valley and Southeast CONUS. Essentially successive rinse & repeat days until soil moisture begins to decline by August. A lot of variety isolated afternoon thunderstorms giving way to greater and greater spreads between days with precipitation. So still thinking Aug.-Oct. 2020 will lean dry barring a land-falling TC making its way across the region.

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