ENSO

[jaxjagman]

This was the 4th strongest DMI since 1980 this last fall,all of the other years always resulted into a NINA on the ONI,into the summer months,plus all three other times before hit a moderate to strong NINA.Seemingly in 1994 this was just a Moderate NINO compared to 1997 and 2019,strong.This year is strong(2023)

1997 and 2019 were proceeded by with multi NINA years ,strong NINAS ,but  theoretically you could also say 1994 was actually more NINA driven into the pattern for multiple years

 

 

1994	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.7	1.0	1.1
1995	1.0	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	-0.2	-0.5	-0.8	-1.0	-1.0	-1.0
1996	-0.9	-0.8	-0.6	-0.4	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.5
1997	-0.5	-0.4	-0.1	0.3	0.8	1.2	1.6	1.9	2.1	2.3	2.4	2.4

 

 

[jaxjagman]

Figured id bring the ENSO thread back up after hibernation for 2 years,The DMI the last couple weeks has been getting stronger,it should mainly stay this way it is until late fall when it peaks in a more or less strong NINO,

The MJO as we head towards the next several days seemingly is getting nothing but destructive interference from a  Kelvin Wave,should seemingly  go back into the WP shortly after but it could also warm the east up again  from a downwelling Kelvin Wave.

The east has some subsurface temps around 100W OF 8C,these temps dont dont peak out until fall into winter,NINO of 1982-83 had the highest temp anoms in the subsurface,so i guess it has a chance to surpass that,who knows right now

[jaxjagman]

DWKW the next couple weeks could possibly expand or even rise those SST anoms from +8C IN the east